Hurricane Beryl

[Stratton20]

i dont think the 4 pm come will shift much at all, maybe a hair south but not much

[brazoriatx]

So it's looking like northern mexico is the safe bet at the moment?

[AtascocitaWX]

So it's looking like northern mexico is the safe bet at the moment?

Yea for now.

[djmike]

IMG_2173.jpeg

7day QPF showing moisture on the rise fwiw for SETX…

[Stratton20]

I wouldnt put a bet on northern mexico , we wont have a precise idea of where its going until thursday or friday, its still is very much possible this thing could come up toward the middle- texas coast, ensemble guidance shows this

[AtascocitaWX]

I'm watching the ICON. It's always seems to be the first to pick up on trends.

[tireman4]

From Woofde at S2K...this pretty much sums up the struggle between TUTT and Beryl these next few days...

Beryl is going to fight with it and attempt to pinch the TUTT off. You can see it in the modeling. Most likely Beryl will win, but it's going to take a large toll on the storm, especially if there's lots of land interaction. That shear in the Gulf is likely to disappear as well if Beryl succeeds, the TUTT will be cutoff.

You can see this pretty well on the latest GFS. It's a pretty complex setup, sort of a wait and see who comes out on top sort of thing.

[Cpv17]

If it remains strong then I’d bet on a more northerly track.

[Cpv17]

So it's looking like northern mexico is the safe bet at the moment?

It will totally depend on the strength of Beryl. Personally, I feel anywhere between Port Mansfield to Port Aransas is most likely right now. If it’s weak then I feel anywhere from Carboneras, MX to Port Isabel, TX is most likely.

[Cpv17]

Until this clears Jamaica, it’s pretty much a guessing game. Models will swing back and forth wildly for another 24-48 more hours

[Stratton20]

Looks like Beryl is really starting to put a dent into the TUTT, that could have massive implications down the road

[DoctorMu]

What Scott is alluding to

If that happens we would be on the dirty side..but seeing as Beryl is so small would we feel any affects from her if she came in that far south?

I expect the weak CoC would continue to move north, we we could see a chance of beneficial rain.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like Beryl is really starting to put a dent into the TUTT, that could have massive implications down the road

Like a hot knife through buttah.

She'll have many hours of shear to dust off. We;ll see.

[biggerbyte]

We are back to Mexico today. When it comes to models trend is your friend. It's never accurate except down to the last day or two.

Now we wait. Nowcasting can be so dangerous. It is what it is.

[Scott747]

We're likely to see a subtle shift to the n on the track on the 10pm update with a bit more of a pronounced curve on the cone in the gulf.

Upper level synoptic mission around Beryl heads out tomorrow afternoon. Data probably won't make it in the models till 6z Wednesday.

In the meantime the latest recon mission has Beryl at 938 and 155 mph. Probably a cat 5 earlier this afternoon.

Was off a bit on the timing. Upper level mission has been airborne for a few hours. Some data may make it in the 18z runs. Most all of it should be in the 0z runs tonight.

[DoctorMu]

GFS, for example turns north after landfall. HWRF keeps Beryl offshore until the LaTx border.

[Stratton20]

I dont trust the Euro AIFS, but even it has baryl making more of a move toward south texas and eventually starts moving north then NE towards houston inland, influenced more by the weakness fwiw

[DoctorMu]

Exact point of western GoM coast landfall may not matter if Beryl just curves up the coast like beta Eta, Delta - the Greek letter hurricane year.

[Cpv17]

I dont trust the Euro AIFS, but even it has baryl making more of a move toward south texas and eventually starts moving north then NE towards houston inland, influenced more by the weakness fwiw

I don’t think Beryl goes S of Carboneras, MX. Bold statement to make, but it’s what my gut/intuition is telling me.

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

The cloud pattern of Beryl has become a little less organized since
the last reconnaissance aircraft left the storm near 17Z. While
the eyewall cloud tops have cooled, the eye has become ragged
and less distinct inside the central dense overcast, and the
overall cloud pattern is becoming elongated due to shear.
Objective intensity estimates suggest that the hurricane has
weakened a little in the past few hours, but the advisory intensity
will be held at 135 kt until the arrival of the next aircraft
missions near 00Z.

The initial motion is a quick 290/19 kt. A strong subtropical
ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to
steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in about 24 h, near the Cayman
Islands in about 36 h, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
around 60-72 h. After that, there remains a significant spread in
the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and
location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern
United States. The GFS shows a more northerly motion during this
time, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast a more westerly motion.
This part of forecast track lies between these extremes near the
consensus models and has a higher than normal amount of uncertainty.

The intensity forecast also continues to be uncertain. The models
are in good agreement that Beryl should steadily weaken during the
next 60 h due to shear and dry air entrainment, but the models
show a slower rate of weakening than previously. Based on this,
the new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major
hurricane when it passes near Jamaica, at or near major hurricane
strength when it passes the Cayman Islands, and still be a
hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. This part of the
forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There
remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl
emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better
agreement that the cyclone will intensify some while crossing the
Gulf. The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle
of the spread-out intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night. Residents in these
areas should listen to local government and emergency management
officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders.

2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely
over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday.

3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday where additional watches
will likely be required later today or tonight.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 70.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.7N 73.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.7N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.5N 80.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.1N 83.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 19.7N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 24.5N 97.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven