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Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Wed Jul 20, 2011 9:10 am
by wxman57
srainhoutx wrote:T wave looking better, convectively speaking, this morning. My hunch is we'll see an INVEST before the day is out. I suspect that the NHC would like to start running the Hurricane models for what may well be a future Cindy.
Agreed. This one has me concerned - not for us yet, but for our clients in the Caribbean and the Bahamas to southeast U.S.
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Wed Jul 20, 2011 11:22 am
by Andrew
wxman57 wrote:srainhoutx wrote:T wave looking better, convectively speaking, this morning. My hunch is we'll see an INVEST before the day is out. I suspect that the NHC would like to start running the Hurricane models for what may well be a future Cindy.
Agreed. This one has me concerned - not for us yet, but for our clients in the Caribbean and the Bahamas to southeast U.S.
Yea the Southeast U.S. and Bahamas are the most immediate threats but some of the models including the Euro and CMC showing a building ridge that could push the system west. It all depends on if it does build in and how soon. The cmc shows the weakness pretty well and that is why the system advances so far north before heading west into the U.S. How soon this system forms will dictate if it finds the weakness and how north it will go. The Euro does show a track that COULD be similar to Katrina or Ike as it crosses Florida into the gulf but as of now that is just speculation. I would enjoy it when the GFS actually picks this system up.
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Wed Jul 20, 2011 1:59 pm
by srainhoutx
The Canadian suggest a SE Bahamas threat and on out to sea while the Euro and UKMET suggest a weaker disturbance crossing Hispaniola heading W...
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Wed Jul 20, 2011 3:49 pm
by Ptarmigan
Future Don.
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Wed Jul 20, 2011 4:07 pm
by srainhoutx
The Euro ensemble mean continues to advertise a possible Gulf threat in the long range...
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2011 1:38 pm
by rnmm
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2011 1:44 pm
by Katdaddy
And so it begins. I feel confident Pouch PO7L will become our next Invest. Also its at low latitude which will be further away from troughing effects. Its possible this could become the next GOM threat down the road.
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:31 pm
by tireman4
Katdaddy,
I echo many sentiments at Storm2k. I am a just a little bit concerned. This could be a problem
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2011 3:33 pm
by Katdaddy
I saw you post over at S2K Tireman. The Euro brings it W to the Upper TX Coast. Way to early to tell but feel its lower latitude will allow it move into the GOM. We need the rain but if it were to get this far W it might have alot baggage.
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2011 4:30 pm
by CAK
Anyone know what the deal is with the big spinning blob just on the east side of Cuba?
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2011 4:49 pm
by Andrew
That is a ULL or Mid level low but nothing worrisome for tropical development. It could only cause sheer problems really.
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2011 8:20 pm
by jasons2k
I'm keeping tabs on this one for sure. The long-rang pattern *could* steer this system towards the TX coast.
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 12:51 pm
by ticka1
Ed Mahmoud wrote:More suggestions of an interesting ASO nationally.
Secret source says Bill Read (NHC) is watching area of abnormal water temps in the MDR and they expect big things.
Ed can you translate that - not sure what MDR is and ASO is either! As always - thanks for the info!
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 1:49 pm
by ticka1
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Main development region and August-September-October.
Thank you. Learn something new everyday.
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2011 10:13 am
by srainhoutx
Roundy TC Genesis probs are increasing for August across the Atlantic Basin...
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:44 pm
by rnmm
1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20
MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PASCH
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2011 6:54 pm
by srainhoutx
rnmm wrote:1. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20
MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PASCH
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:30 pm
by Ptarmigan
That tropical wave is probably likely going to be Emily.
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:11 pm
by djjordan
I agree Emily is just around the corner she seems to be at a low latitude at the time .... well worth watching over time.
Re: 2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Watching The Cape Verde Waves
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2011 11:16 pm
by rnmm
It has been renumbered to 91L