Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 7:58 am
Need a center y’all will get a headache model watching all night I’ve learn my lesson about 20 years ago
Same....I think it was Earl whose computer models tormented the Northern Gulf Coast with an eerily tight convergence, only to do a complete 180 or dissipate, if I'm not mistaken.
Model-watching that one traumatized me. Lol
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive, and development of this system is anticipated. A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
The diurnal maximum treated #95L well. Its northern vortmax continues to be convectively active, and now this area has a closed circulation given cloud motions though it still seems broad. There's also some nice inflow in spots and the beginnings of banding. Well on the way to… pic.twitter.com/eqXsqgpDnc
-- Alex Boreham (@cyclonicwx) June 27, 2024
From Kevin at S2K..this is just a blend of the models at this time...(95L)
And just since I'm busy anyways an averaged blend of all the above models. Assuming that the TC peaks before 126 hrs (aka it weakens in the Caribbean) the blend would forecast a decent category 2 hurricane. Quite rare this early in the year and perhaps a sign of things to come, but not a Dennis or Emily (yet).
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea is producing
widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity while
it moves westward at around 20 mph. Some development of
this system is possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
National #Hurricane Center gives 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation in next week for eastern Atlantic tropical wave. 7 years on record (since 1851) have had named storm formation in tropical Atlantic (S of 20°N, E of 60°W) by 4 July: 1901, 1933, 1979, 2008, 2017, 2021, 2023 pic.twitter.com/l5ucEx3hec
-- Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 27, 2024
95L looks impressive this morning and is likely on its way to becoming a tropical depression over the next 24 to 36 hours. I've noticed that African Dust is decreasing the further West it moves. I'd give it an 80% chance of development the next 48 hours.
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tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 8:38 am
Wxman 57 at S2K on 95 L
I have it over eastern Honduras next Thursday afternoon at near hurricane strength. Heading into Central America.
Wouldn’t expect anything less coming from 57! Lol
Although he did clarify...
If it takes that track then crosses the Bay of Campeche, then I won't be needed to work. Any hint at all of a NW Gulf threat and I'll be needed for conference calls. Main uncertainty is the impact of the westerly winds aloft on the southern side of the northern Caribbean TUTT next week.
I do think that crashing into Central America is a possibility, but I wouldn’t put money on it. I do think it could crash into the Yucatan Peninsula and then go into Mexico, but personally I think Central America is safe from this. If it’s strong then it’s going to wanna go more poleward.
tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 27, 2024 8:38 am
Wxman 57 at S2K on 95 L
I have it over eastern Honduras next Thursday afternoon at near hurricane strength. Heading into Central America.
Wouldn’t expect anything less coming from 57! Lol
Although he did clarify...
If it takes that track then crosses the Bay of Campeche, then I won't be needed to work. Any hint at all of a NW Gulf threat and I'll be needed for conference calls. Main uncertainty is the impact of the westerly winds aloft on the southern side of the northern Caribbean TUTT next week.
Gotcha. I haven’t been on Storm2K yet today. About to go on there now though and catch up on the chatter lol 95L has my attention.
2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive, and development of this system is anticipated. A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
It’s respectable. This, to me, looks more like what you’d see in the central Atlantic in August, not late June. So this feels rather bizarre. As we noted yesterday, storms in June are not unprecedented this far east, but they’re still fairly rare. So Invest 95L is humming, and it will be a good idea to monitor this.
One thing we strongly advise against this time of year is monitoring deterministic models too closely: the operational GFS, the operational ECMWF (Euro), etc. These are one-solution, one-forecast outcomes. They have inherent biases in certain situations. For example, the GFS tends to be overeager with Atlantic wave development in systems like 95L. So it wasn’t exactly a surprise to see it barreling a hurricane into the Gulf or toward Florida on a couple recent runs. The Euro has its own struggles, and it too can be prone to errors in track or intensity. But these models swing around a lot from run to run. For example, the last five runs of the GFS have shown multiple possibilities.
12z Wednesday: Southern Caribbean to Hispaniola
18z Wednesday: Yucatan to Mainland Mexico
00z Thursday: Jamaica to Yucatan to northern Mexico
06z Thursday: Haiti to Cuba to Houston
12z Thursday: South of Hispaniola, between Jamaica and Cuba, to Cancun to the Rio Grande
Intensities have fluctuated all over on each of these runs as well. So, we’re not telling you not to look at deterministic modeling. We don’t want to be condescending! But do not use them as planning tools or even as a barometer of what is most likely. Often, the deterministic modeling ends up on one extreme of the ensemble envelope, meaning it’s arguably the least likely outcome! This is why we use ensemble modeling. It gives us a breadth of outcomes and risks. And we can dig into it to pull some signal from the noise.
In this case, the European ensemble actually does a very good job of offering up just that. I don’t like sharing spaghetti plots, because they are often too difficult to understand, but in some cases, they’re extremely useful. I believe this is one of those cases.
The Euro ensemble plot of 51 members shows outcomes ranging from off the East Coast to Central America, with intensities ranging from strong hurricanes to depressions or weaker. But some signal can be pulled from this.
What can we take from this? First, there is a very bimodal distribution of the members. In other words, there is one cluster that favors a westward or slightly north of west track all the way into Central America or Mexico. A second camp exists pulling 95L more to the north, even as far east as near Bermuda! This makes intuitive sense, and it gives us a guidepost to consider when thinking about 95L’s future. In addition to steering currents and such, one factor that will determine 95L’s future will be its own intensity. A storm that strengthens quickly will be more apt to gain latitude faster, meaning a track in the right half of the ensemble envelope. A storm that struggles to organize longer will stay at a relatively far south latitude longer, perhaps even grazing the coast of South America.
Here’s a good way to actually use deterministic modeling to your benefit. If we look at the comparison of where 95L will be on Tuesday, you can see the GFS is farther north than the Euro. This should not come as a surprise, as it is much faster to develop and wind up 95L than the Euro.
From a practical point of view, this means that what happens over the next 3 to 5 days with Invest 95L will be fairly important. If it forms quickly, it could come farther north ultimately. If it is sluggish to organize, it will probably take a track in the southern half of the ensemble forecast envelope. This isn’t the only thing that will influence where 95L goes, but at the current time, it’s pretty important. As I noted, the GFS operational has a bias to wind these things up too quickly in this part of the world. So in many ways, this probably argues that the Euro idea (favoring the southern half of the ensemble envelope) is more likely. That being said, this is a very atypical year, with record warm water temperatures and such. With that in mind, it bears watching, especially for the Caribbean islands that will be first in line to receive whatever this is as it organizes. Those of you in the states or Central America should continue watching 95L’s progress in the days ahead.
The next name on the list is Beryl.
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Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive, and development of this system is anticipated. A
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea is
producing widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph. Some
development of this system is possible over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
