2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[weatherguy425]

weatherguy425 and support from the EPS has grown even more lol

06Z was, as was 06Z GEFS. We'll need to see what 12Z EPS shows - just for fun anyway. Overall trend this afternoon has been for less support of a feature closing off before a TX, LA or northern MX 'landfall. We'll see.

[Cpv17]

We won’t know more till this weekend.

[Cpv17]

Also very interesting to see models agreeing on a CAG setup for the gulf down the road, that is very unusual for august

Yeah, that’s more like a late May or June event. I’m very skeptical of that happening in August. I believe the GFS is seeing some energy in that area but having a problem resolving it right now but it does seem to be moving up in the timeframe

[Pas_Bon]

Also very interesting to see models agreeing on a CAG setup for the gulf down the road, that is very unusual for august

To be fair, this whole Summer has been very unusual for this whole Summer.

[weatherguy425]

Also very interesting to see models agreeing on a CAG setup for the gulf down the road, that is very unusual for august

Yeah, that’s more like a late May or June event. I’m very skeptical of that happening in August. I believe the GFS is seeing some energy in that area but having a problem resolving it right now but it does seem to be moving up in the timeframe

I think what is actually happening is that the lead wave that is currently embedded within the monsoonal trough out east moves westward and fails to develop until it interacts with the trough/CAG. So, it doesn't appear to be PURELY CAG driven.

[tireman4]

The 2 pm Update


Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Stratton20]

The Euro now shows a tropical depression moving towards SE texas fwiw

[don]

Yep the EURO has a Tropical Depression into Galveston Bay.Similar track to the ICON just further north.Nice rainfall amounts also.

Screenshot 2023-08-16 at 13-39-42 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-08-16 at 13-39-47 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-08-16 at 13-41-32 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

[Cpv17]

Better trends today than yesterday, that’s for sure. The EPS will be interesting.

[Stratton20]

LOL the euro then tries to strengthen it over land

[brazoriatx]

Hopefully it comes in south of Galveston bay to give us all some rain

[Cpv17]

LOL the euro then tries to strengthen it over land

The Euro does that a lot with tropical systems. They call it the Brown ocean effect.

[Stormlover2020]

I wouldn’t worry about rain totals yet we all know it usually triples with tropical systems

[Stratton20]

EPS generally shows members between 1005-1010 mb with a spread from corpus to galveston

[tireman4]

Jet Fuel down in the Gulf...

[don]

The EURO and ICON tracks would have the system move over some of the warmest parts of the Gulf.

[weatherguy425]

The EURO and ICON tracks would have the system move over some of the warmest parts of the Gulf.

And we'll need to continue to keep an eye on the SW Gulf and Caribbean over the next few weeks. May be another few items of interest; all still shwoing up on GEFS, EPS, EPS control and euro weeklies.

[Scott747]

Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary.

It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z.

[weatherguy425]

Our future disturbance is beginning to show up in the background of the HAFS runs for Hilary.

It only runs out to 126 hours but looks to be developing as it moves w away from the Florida and a little s of where the GFS had its vorticity on the 12z.

Where site are you using? Hard to find a view large enough to include the Gulf, etc. on tidbits.

[sambucol]

If that system sits in the GOM for several days next week, it seems to me with those water temps, it will get stronger. The question is, just how strong could it get?