July 2023

[Cpv17]

But isnt the front too far off shore for any storms to develop here locally? Regardless ill be keeping an eye on the gulf, all that convection over 90+ degree water and light shear , i dont trust it

Hell, what front? It’s still 99° F here with a 108 feels like and I have a SW wind outside. This is not a front lol

[suprdav2]

But isnt the front too far off shore for any storms to develop here locally? Regardless ill be keeping an eye on the gulf, all that convection over 90+ degree water and light shear , i dont trust it

Hell, what front? It’s still 99° F here with a 108 feels like and I have a SW wind outside. This is not a front lol

And dew point still in the 70s.....

[Cpv17]

But isnt the front too far off shore for any storms to develop here locally? Regardless ill be keeping an eye on the gulf, all that convection over 90+ degree water and light shear , i dont trust it

Hell, what front? It’s still 99° F here with a 108 feels like and I have a SW wind outside. This is not a front lol

And dew point still in the 70s.....

Yep, same here.

[Stratton20]

Their was a weak frontal passage occording to NOAA ( this was early this morning), its now currently stationary in the GOM

[user:null]

Well, some small cells are already firing north of I-10, Austin county. And it seems like a sea-breeze is setting up along Brazoria county, fron what I understand.

[Cpv17]

Yeah, storms are starting to fire up. Just isolated so far, though.

[jasons2k]

The wind has started to pick-up from the north here.

[Katdaddy]

So close just S of the yard

[Cpv17]

We got a 30 second shower lol then it blew up just to my south but it actually started right over my house.

[Cromagnum]

Not going to get crap like usual. Storms to my west moving south and storms to my east moving north.

[Stratton20]

and all the storms went around me, yet another bust, unbelievable

[Katdaddy]

Severe cell developed over the house. Winds gusted only 40-45MPH with very heavy well needed rainfall.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
420 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 419 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over western
League City, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
League City, Texas City, Friendswood, Alvin, Dickinson, La Marque,
Santa Fe, Webster, Hitchcock, southern Clear Lake, Bacliff and San
Leon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

[Cpv17]

Severe cell developed over the house. Winds gusted only 40-45MPH with very heavy well needed rainfall.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
420 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 419 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over western
League City, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
League City, Texas City, Friendswood, Alvin, Dickinson, La Marque,
Santa Fe, Webster, Hitchcock, southern Clear Lake, Bacliff and San
Leon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Must be nice.

[Cromagnum]

Visible rain east and west of me, but now I can see the outflow coming through to guarantee 0% chance. Time to drag out the GD sprinklers again...

[Cpv17]

Ganado getting a huge rain and a severe thunderstorm. Big dark red cell just sitting right over them.

[DoctorMu]

Congrats folks. HRR was indeed on target.

We have a DP of 59° here, so we have that going for us, but it will be short lived.

[Stratton20]

heres to hoping for more widespread rains in august

[jasons2k]

Nothing again…

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241111
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

SE Texas is expected to remain on the peripheral of a mid to
upper level ridge, which should slowly drift eastward through the
Four Corners region over the next few days. This should allow a
few shortwave impulses to pass overhead, which could tap into PWs
upwards of 1.6" PWs to periodically bring showers and storms
across SE Texas. Rain chances remain greatest during the afternoon
hours, coinciding with the sea/bay breeze. Steep low level lapse
rates and MU Cape in excess of 2000 J/KG could allow the strongest
of these storms to produce gusty winds. 850mb temperatures are
progged to be around 19-23C, slightly lower than the previous day,
though highs should still be in the 90s to lower 100s. Dewpoints
should mix out during the afternoon, keeping heat indices in the
range of 102-111 degrees. As a result, only the southern half of
our CWA will be under a heat advisory today. Heat indices for
Tuesday look to be even lower, enough to possibly break the long,
ongoing streak of heat related advisories/warnings for SE Texas.

With Heat Advisories remaining in effect for portions of SE
Texas, heat safety should still be practiced whenever possible.
Drink plenty of fluids and avoid strenuous outdoor activities
during the hottest part of the day. Wear lightweight and loose
fitting clothing when possible. Stay in an air-conditioned room,
stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Young children and pets should never be left unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. Know the signs and symptoms of
heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Check with your local authorities
regarding the potential opening of any cooling centers in your
area.

Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year. Do
not underestimate the danger it poses.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

The main weather story in the extended period is the return of hazy
skies due to Saharan dust, isolated to scattered showers and storms
and temperatures near to slightly above average.

Mid to upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners will
gradually shift and expand eastward this week, bringing a northeast
flow across SE TX. Multiple embedded shortwaves will travel the
periphery of the ridge, increasing the probability of rain and
storms into the region each day. The best timing for any
convection looks to be in the afternoon/early evening with the
peak of daytime heating and any sea/bay breeze interaction.
Deterministic models differ a bit in the upper-level pattern after
Thursday. The GFS keeps the upper ridge strong, while the ECMWF
suggests an inverted upper trough, keeping chances for
precipitation into the weekend. Confidence in occurrence of any
showers/storms, on the other hand, remains medium. Any
precipitation will depend on the amount of the Saharan dust.
Latest guidance keep bringing a plume of dust across the region
through at least next weekend, so the main question will be how
thick the layer will be to inhibit any convection due to cooler
temperatures. Have continued with 20-40 percent chance of
precipitation each day. The best chances will be south of I-10 and
along the coast...slightly rain chances may be possible farther
north of I-10.

Hot weather continues, albeit not as hot as last week. Daytime
temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees above normal, that is, highs
mainly from the mid to upper 90s. Nighttime temperatures mainly in
the 70s inland and low 80s along the coast.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(09Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 433 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

VFR conditions should largely prevail throughout the TAF period.
Light winds this morning should become southeasterly this
afternoon, with scattered storms possible along the sea breeze in
areas south of KIAH. Rain chances taper off this evening with
patchy fog possible at KLBX during the early morning hours of
Tuesday.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are expected to
continue through the week as a high pressure dominates over the
central/eastern Gulf. Seas will generally be from 1 to 3ft. Elevated
seas around 4ft can be expected at times after mid-week. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day along
with hazy skies due to Saharan dust.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 101 76 100 76 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 98 77 98 78 / 30 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 91 82 / 20 0 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM

[Stratton20]

Ensembles and global models tend to agree that SE texas will lie on the southern periphery of the heat ridge for the foreseeable future, leaving the door open to easterly disturbances