May 2023
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5362
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
weatherguy425 hope it does push through! The longer we can delay the big heat, the better!
94F here right now. It’s hot! 
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6025
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023
MVFR cigs have generally lifted over the past few hours, with
scattered to broken decks persisting at VFR levels through the
afternoon. Gusty south to southeast winds will also persist,
with gusts reaching up to 25 knots at times. A few scattered
storms may develop over the next 3-6 hours, mainly to the north of
I-10. Have included VCTS wording as a result through
approximately 00Z. Overnight, cigs drop to MVFR levels once again
with overcast skies developing. Shower and thunderstorm coverage
will begin to increase around sunrise, with the chance for more
widespread thunderstorms increasing as we head into the late
morning/early afternoon.
Cady
&&
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023
MVFR cigs have generally lifted over the past few hours, with
scattered to broken decks persisting at VFR levels through the
afternoon. Gusty south to southeast winds will also persist,
with gusts reaching up to 25 knots at times. A few scattered
storms may develop over the next 3-6 hours, mainly to the north of
I-10. Have included VCTS wording as a result through
approximately 00Z. Overnight, cigs drop to MVFR levels once again
with overcast skies developing. Shower and thunderstorm coverage
will begin to increase around sunrise, with the chance for more
widespread thunderstorms increasing as we head into the late
morning/early afternoon.
Cady
&&
I mentioned this morning they may need to move it a lil further east. So this doesn’t surprise me.
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat May 13 2023 - 12Z Sun May 14 2023
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH TEXAS...
...2030Z Update...
...Texas...
Very few changes were made to the Moderate Risk area across south
Texas. As mentioned below, it's likely that the event will be
ongoing at 12Z Saturday for the start of the Day 2 period, but
unfortunately there is not great agreement in the CAMs as to that
timing. Most of the CAMs suggest there will be multiple rounds of
storms that form to the west towards the Rio Grande, then track
with some speed off to the east out to the Gulf as the next round
of storms does the same, with this pattern continuing into the
night. Of course, depending on which CAM you use, the timing of
when each storm will be in a given location varies widely. There's
also some disagreement on how far west new storms initiate. As
such, the core of the heaviest rainfall in the consensus has
shifted east close to the Gulf Coast. Should this verify then
Corpus Christi would be on the hook for 3+ inches of rain, with
12Z HREF neighborhood probabilities at over 80% for 3 inches of
rain in town, 30% for 5 inches of rain, and a 10% chance of 8
inches of rain in the 24 hour period from 12Z Sat through 12Z Sun.
Higher probabilities remain west of the city however, with a wide
variety of probabilities from the Gulf Coast to the Rio Grande.
Meanwhile, the Slight Risk area was expanded north and west to
include all of the TX Panhandle, most of western OK, and some of
the OK Panhandle. CAMs guidance suggests a Mesolow will move along
the TX Panhandle/OK border, with steady stratiform rain over the
Panhandles, with rounds of showers and storms over much of OK.
With abundant moisture available with PWATs over 1.5 inches in
much of TX and OK Saturday afternoon, and instability values
between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg the storms will have plenty of
available moisture and energy for producing heavy rains across
north TX and OK.
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That long MCS is redefining bow echo out in west Texas. I am glad they are getting some rain.
Interesting that the NAM and FV3 show some pretty decent totals across the area. The HRRR isn’t really onboard, though.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6025
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Our rain chances have increased from 30 percent to 80 percent today in the Humble/Kingwood area. Perfect. I have an outdoor Summer Laegue meet to officiate today ( son swims it)). Scheduled from 8 30 am to 245 pm, I wonder how much we get in.
Victoria area getting absolutely pounded.
Been pouring good here for awhile as this band keeps back building. Good, I don’t have to water the potted plants today.
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brazoriatx
- Posts: 415
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
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Looks like it's starting to break up. Nothing here in brazoria county
0.7 inches so far. Beautiful cloudy weather. 
That MCS blob SW of us could lay down a velvet hammer later this afternoon.
That MCS blob SW of us could lay down a velvet hammer later this afternoon.-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5362
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Interesting solution on the 12z CMC, has the low responsible for our rain today not exiting the state ( east texas) until next thursday, keeping rain chances around for the foreseeable future
1.4” here so far today. Bringing my total to 4.38” for the week.
These types of setups can be unpredictable. The CMC’s solution could very well happen. Steering currents seem pretty weak.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 1:13 pm Interesting solution on the 12z CMC, has the low responsible for our rain today not exiting the state ( east texas) until next thursday, keeping rain chances around for the foreseeable future