July 2022

[user:null]

I wouldn’t. Four main reasons:

1) The RGV is still at risk of the occasional deep hard freeze; moreso than Zone 10 on the Florida peninsula.

2) No comparison on the beaches. The Florida gulf beaches are some of the prettiest in the world. I stay in the water all day. I won’t get in the water in Texas any more.

3) Most of the area is economically depressed. It’s a shame because it was great before all the bases closed.

4) I don’t know anyone in the RGV. Have lots of friends and family in Florida (born there) and a 2nd home in Dunedin and a rental on IRB already. It’s just a matter if time before the family situation allows for a move, mainly getting the kids through school.

Good points. The Gulf beaches in Florida are definitely phenomenal (although the Atlantic beaches don't seem to have as much of the fame, sans South Beach/Miami area).

Having that said, I would say that the South Texas beaches are still quite decent — especially the Padre Island sector, which does good with Spring Break.

Remains to be seen what recent initiatives regarding SpaceX does with the South Texas area. Quite an increase in rents as a result of that industry in Boca Chica

[user:null]

The disturbance looks like its already about to move in, we are staying high and dry……

Good, let it get lost and get on already as far east as possible. Lack of organization will make it easier for something to stream our way.

Musch better than blowing up to a big storm, then making the hard right into Louisiana that fans flames.

[Stratton20]

User Null Some of the models that do keep this weak and unorganized move it this way, but the moisture just goes POOF right on our coastline, models show very little in the way of rain even it it comes this way, just another depressing forecast lol

[Cromagnum]

Next.

[captainbarbossa19]

Well next summer is almost guaranteed to be better than this summer. This summer is very much like 2000. 2001 was much cooler and wetter.

[user:null]

User Null Some of the models that do keep this weak and unorganized move it this way, but the moisture just goes POOF right on our coastline, models show very little in the way of rain even it it comes this way, just another depressing forecast lol

I was referring to the part where you mentioned it "already moving in." That's great, because if its staying east, better to do so as far away (i.e. Florida/Atlantic seaboard) and weak as possible.

If nothing else, the pattern will at least reshuffle easier. Rather than persistent locked eastern trough keeping the ridge amplified west like we saw with the recent Texas heatwave, the ridge axis will have more north/east incursions enough to give easterly flow. That is better in terms of at least single-cell rain chances going onward.

The differences of the 12z Icon versus the 00z run posted upthread shows what I mean. Especially the 500mb vortices patterns.

[Stratton20]

The NHC mentioned in their 2 pm outlook for the gulf disturbance that there are currently multiple low pressure systems associated with the disturbance, ive never seen that in any of their discussions before, looks like the first low is near the florida coast with another Low embedded in the deeper convection to the South of Louisiana, interesting

[captainbarbossa19]

The NHC mentioned in their 2 pm outlook for the gulf disturbance that there are currently multiple low pressure systems associated with the disturbance, ive never seen that in any of their discussions before, looks like the first low is near the florida coast with another Low embedded in the deeper convection to the South of Louisiana, interesting

Yeah. There is no center yet for the system so you have to watch each competing area for potential development. Areas of deep convection are the most likely candidates for development.

[user:null]

Well next summer is almost guaranteed to be better than this summer. This summer is very much like 2000. 2001 was much cooler and wetter.

I think another problem for Texas often is that the Gulf of Mexico is so DEAD!!!

I'll go ahead and say that it is actually logically inconsistent for Texas to be as dry as it is often during these summers:

(1) The Gulf itself is a warm water basin, SSTs no lower than mid 80s even in normal years. And that's not even getting into the posts upthread that referenced the extreme bathtub conditions this year, temps as warm as 90F(!!) in some parts.

(2)Knowing the rising tendency of warm, moist air, the Gulf really should be an engine unto itself. Even without tropical disturbances, fronts, etc ... the ridge should be irrelevant, because whatever cap, subsidence, etc provided should still be eroded/overcome by the moist air that saturates (i.e. via daytime heating). There's no reason the radar shouldn't be littered with sea-breeze complexes, let along huge moisture slugs that overtake everything when the ridge slips out.

(3) Yet, there's virtually nothing happening. Not even in the into the tropics like in the Caribbean or Bay of Campeche. According to 12zGFS 200mb velocity potentials, there is virtually no ascent in the Americas — everything is all in the Eastern Hemisphere.

[jasons2k]

It’s amazing to me that there is that much moisture out in the gulf getting shoved westward under the ridge and as it gets here it just goes kaput.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121721
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1221 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Seeing some CU based at around 7kft moving southward with the
northerly mid-level flow on the east side of the mid/upper ridge.
A 15Z La Porte sounding from TRACER supports scattered convection
later this afternoon with some additional sfc heating. Think we
will see a few storms develop near the sea/bay breeze after 3 PM
and continuing into the early eve hours. Further inland around CXO
and IAH, its possible to see an isolated TSRA or SHRA but the
better chance should be just to the south near HOU and SGR.

Wood

[DoctorMu]

Mid-levels are parched, except for a couple of jailbreak cells in west to central Texas... and the Gulf.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu seeing all that yellow over us and all that mositure in thr gulf is depressing

[tireman4]

So far...so good....

Grid Conditions
Last Updated: Jul 12, 2022 14:37 CT
OPERATING RESERVES:
3,419 MW
NORMAL CONDITIONS
There is enough power for current demand.

[jasons2k]

Radar lighting up…fingers crossed!!

[user:null]

^^^ Wow, you're right, lots of cells suddenly popping up. And I don't think the sea-breeze has even come through yet...

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 122020
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Night]...

The heat continues with temperatures and heat indices already at
advisory levels across the region. The hot spot today as of 2 PM,
is CLL with 103 degrees and a HI of 109. We are likely to see a
few isolated storms develop during the next couple of hours well
inland with scattered storms near the seabreeze, which will
likely persist into the early eve hours.

Wednesday will be similar to today as the mid to upper level ridge
persists over the four corners region, with Southeast Texas on the
eastern periphery. Will be extending the heat advisory into Wednesday
evening with similar temps/heat indices expected as to what we are
seeing today. Convection tomorrow Will likely start further north
across the area as deeper moisture edges in from the northeast.

Wood


&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...

Thursday will be another hot and humid day. Heat index values will
need to be monitored once again for potential Heat Advisory
criteria. However, the news is not all bad. Increasing moisture
levels from the east are expected to increase PoPs over most of
the CWA on Thursday. In fact, Thursday`s PoPs have managed to
increased slightly in our grids by incorporating some of the
latest guidance. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be
scattered. So not every location will be fortunate enough to
receive rain. But at least there is hope!

By Friday and Saturday, the mid to upper level ridge centered to
our west may expand somewhat. This would reduce PoPs but still
allow for isolated to scattered diurnal shower and thunderstorm
activity. The forecast becomes a little trickier early next week.
The aforementioned ridge will continue to play a major role in
our weather. The uncertainty lies with the eastern extent of the
ridge. The farther to the east the ridge extends, the lower the
PoPs and the hotter the temps. For now, we continue to opt for
above average temperatures and relatively low PoPs early next
week.



&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Seeing some CU based at around 7kft moving southward with the
northerly mid-level flow on the east side of the mid/upper ridge.
A 15Z La Porte sounding from TRACER supports scattered convection
later this afternoon with some additional sfc heating. Think we
will see a few storms develop near the sea/bay breeze after 3 PM
and continuing into the early eve hours. Further inland around CXO
and IAH, its possible to see an isolated TSRA or SHRA but the
better chance should be just to the south near HOU and SGR.

Wood


&&

.MARINE...
The forecast appears to be on track. Light to moderate onshore
winds will persist with shifts based on the daily seabreeze and
landbreeze pattern. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible today and tomorrow. Chance of scattered showers and
thunderstorms increases somewhat for Thursday and Friday. Mariners
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center concerning potential tropical development along
the northern Gulf coast east of our area.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 104 79 102 77 / 10 20 10 30 10
Houston (IAH) 81 102 81 97 78 / 10 20 10 40 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 92 83 93 83 / 20 20 10 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for the following zones:
Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...
Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...
Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[tireman4]

So far so good....

In the green range

Grid Conditions
Last Updated: Jul 12, 2022 15:37 CT
OPERATING RESERVES:
3,407 MW
NORMAL CONDITIONS
There is enough power for current demand.

[Cpv17]

102° with a feels like of 111° here. Almost as bad as Sunday.

[Cromagnum]

^^^ Wow, you're right, lots of cells suddenly popping up. And I don't think the sea-breeze has even come through yet...

Thats something I've always wondered about. We almost always have onshore flow. What makes a rain-forming sea breeze special?