TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico

[biggerbyte]

They are expecting the ridge to break down and send this northward. We'll see about that. I go by what these things are actually doing, and at the moment reality disagrees with the notions. The key really, is where is the LLC. It is difficult with systems like these to actually locate. Appearances can be highly deceiving. We should know more about that later today.

[Andrew]

"The flow in the gulf is overall westward, wsw in the east, and wnw in the west. If I were a betting man, ATM, I'd put folks on the middle Texas coast, up to the Tx/La border, or maybe sw La on an iWatch alert."


I was watching that too.
It's just really hard to believe with that Wward flow that it just stops and turns N.

But, they are the pros and know much much more than i do.

That flow is going to break down and send it north with an incoming trof.

Is that going to happen in time to send it into LA? Or are we looking at SE TX or TX/LA border?

It is expected to break down to send it to LA but also the sat. shows a sheared system with the LLC possibly trying to relocate south under the deeper convection.

[svrwx0503]

It looks like the LLC is located about where the NWS Mobile has it on their map...to the south of the Destin/Pensacola area moving about due west. At that latitude even if it continues due west, it would move into southeast LA to the southeast of NOLA. Shear looks to be increasing a bit with the thunderstorm activity on the southwest side of the circulation getting pushed a bit more southwest. It looks as if the track on the map below looks pretty reasonable. We might see areas east of I-45 see some increased rain chances toward mid week as the remnants possibly track into northeast Texas.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mob/ ... _full2.gif

[srainhoutx]

RECON has departed Keesler. It shouldn't take long to get there either.

[srainhoutx]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER
TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

[weatherguy425]

Looks like a line of storm is rotating around the area of low pressure. with daytime heating and high PW's, may finally see some rain this PM.

[svrwx0503]

Looks like a line of storm is rotating around the area of low pressure. with daytime heating and high PW's, may finally see some rain this PM.

Yep, will have to watch those storms...as the NWS mentioned this morning, the atmosphere is loaded and with temps reaching into the lower to mid 90s could help to get additional activity going this afternoon. We will also have to watch for any boundaries that might be sent out way.

[srainhoutx]

Appears the ASCAT pass caught our feature...elongated low pressure...

[wxman57]

There appears to be no question where the LLC is. The recon found it just where surface obs put it - on the NE side of the large area of storms near 29N/86.7W. It's completely exposed. There are no squalls rotating around the center. While I thought there might be a slightly higher than 50% chance it could become Danielle before moving inland tomorrow morning, I think those chances are diminishing. I still do think it will be reclassified as TD Five by tomorrow morning, but that's about it. It should stay well east of Houston. Even the outlier ECMWF model now agrees with the SE LA landfall and track.

[srainhoutx]

What are thinking wxman57, another 24-36 hours before landfall?

[wxman57]

What are thinking wxman57, another 24-36 hours before landfall?

Closer to 20, maybe less if it hits the mouth of the Mississippi.

[biggerbyte]

Quoting someone from another board:

"Im starting wonder if this is going to turn north like the models are saying.. the weakness is just not very pronounce and its on the east side of a fairly strong ridge through almost all the steering layers....

This is the mid level steering but the low level steering is about the same I may have to jump on board with a farther west track. Im going to hold out but according to the models it should begin to turn right about now and I see no signs of that I guess I keep an eye on that now.."

End Quote:

This person makes a good point. In other words, this system could somehow bite and move into a weakened ridge, or this skirts the coast all the way to Texas before moving northerly, or again, we get a push south of west for a bit. None of these outcomes are set in stone. I suppose any of the scenarios mentioned could come to
pass, but I still feel that I would not hang my hat and call it a day just yet.

[wxman57]

18Z models shifted farther east into the Mississippi coast vs. SE Louisiana. Still see no threat to Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Vortex message sent...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 19:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Tropical Depression: Number 5 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 19:28:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°07'N 87°02'W (29.1167N 87.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 92 miles (148 km) to the S (173°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 21kts (~ 24.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143° at 23kts (From the SE at ~ 26.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 301m (988ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 306m (1,004ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:05:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the NE (52°) from the flight level center

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162008
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
410 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND MOSTLY REMOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

[biggerbyte]

The ridge above td5 is just too strong. It would have to greatly break down and move off to the east for such a drastic turn to the north. I just do not currently see that happening. I've seen stranger things, so in the end maybe so.

I'd like to point out the flow in the northwestern and western gulf, not to mention over western LA and Eastern Texas. That's all I'm going to say about that for now.

Toodles, folks.

[srainhoutx]

New Orleans afternoon AFD...snip...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF TD 5 ARE NOW OFFSHORE SOUTH OF PENSACOLA AND MOVING
WEST. NHC SAYS WEAK CIRCULATION RIGHT NOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
DECLARE A DEPRESSION...PER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. MOST
CONVECTION IS AWAY FROM THE CENTER AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH A RECENT
BLOWUP SOUTH OF MOBILE MAY BE AN INDICATION OF THINGS TRYING TO
FIRE NEAR THE CENTER. MOST OF CWA HAS BEEN IN THE NORTHWEST
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND THIS HAS LIMITED
LAND BASED CONVECTION. COASTAL MISSISSIPPI HAS STARTED SEEING
CONVECTION IN LAST HOUR OR SO...AND EXPECT THIS TO MOVE WESTWARD.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE CIRCULATION CENTERS
BASED ON SURFACE OBS...ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE REFLECTED
IN SATELLITE LOOPS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
HAVE OPTED TO MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. NAM
LOSES SURFACE LOW WITHIN FIRST DAY OF FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
CURRENT ADVISORIES AS IS. QPF FORECAST FROM EARLIER OF 3 TO 5
INCHES STILL APPEARS REASONABLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CENTER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS IT NEARS LAND. 35

Lake Charles

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOWING CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SWRN ZONES/WRN COASTAL WATERS ATTM.
THESE STORMS RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL REPORTS OF 40+ KNOT WINDS
ACROSS SERN TX/ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NERN LA HEADING SWWD TOWARD THE NERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER SHOWERS/STORMS WIDELY
SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
REMNANTS OF TD5 TRYING TO GET A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OFF THE
NWRN FL COAST...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A WEAK CIRCULATION
BUT NHC IS WAITING FOR CONVECTION TO BETTER ORGANIZE AROUND THE
CENTER BEFORE DECLARING THE SYSTEM A RE-BORN TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST IS TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE REMNANT LOW. HAVE CONTINUED TO BASE THE FORECAST ON HPC-
PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH MOVES THE WEAK SYSTEM INTO SERN LA
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THEN PUSHES WHAT`S LEFT OF IT WNWWD INTO
CNTL LA BY WEDNESDAY. SYSTEM THEN EJECTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA
BY THURSDAY. RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE HIGH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
ERN 1/2 OF THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST HPC QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS A 5-DAY
RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5-7 INCHES OVER THE SERN 1/4 OF THE AREA...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 1-4 INCHES. BULK OF THE
RAINFALL OVER LOWER ACADIANA LOOKS TO FALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS FROM
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE WILL
BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH S-CNTL LA EFFECTIVE TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL BE WORDING THE WATCH AS TOTALS RUNNING 3-5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 7 INCHES OVER THE WATCH AREA. AS
THE RAIN WILL BE SPREADING NWD/WWD INTO TOMORROW NIGHT FEEL WE
HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH FOR ANY OTHER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH I FEEL GOOD THAT THE WATCH
WILL BE EXPANDED AT SOME POINT

[Andrew]

Something to watch also is how sheared this storm is. Right now all of the moisture is to the south and west of the center which could mean better rain chances of rain for us.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

[ticka1]

Is the rain we are getting this afternoon from this? I thought we werent' going to see anything from xtd5?

[MRG93415]

Finally some rain...If this is from TD 5 then a big thank you goes out!!!!!