August 2020:
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Stormlover2020
- Posts: 546
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They shifted back west
Can you imagine how busy it is at the NHC right now? We have the Houston, Miami-Dade, Tampa-St. Pete and NOLA metro areas all in the cones of two different tropical cyclones.
Did I mention it's still August?
Did I mention it's still August?
Last edited by jasons2k on Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
A weaker TD14 now increases the likelihood of a Texas landing.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 7:34 am RECON suggests that TD 14 continues to struggle and remains disorganized. Same goes for TD 13 at this time. Honestly I have little confidence in the various computer schemes this morning. Fact is 14 and 13 are not strengthening as had been expected and that may well have significant impacts on both track and certainly intensity guidance. That said do NOT let your guard down. We'll have the weekend to prepare as if a Hurricane arrives Monday night into Tuesday.
Having said that, Euro, GFS, NAVGEM and NWS are absolutely on top of each other with landfall near Galveston.
Assuming the system for now is weaker and moves more slowly, Freeport could be reasonable. Expect wobbling and shift in the forecast as initially conditions in the runs becomes clearer.
I am concerned about limited prep time and a rush or panic during a pandemic if TD14 blows up over the GoM bath water and shearing subsides.
This is correct.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:22 amIt will change again and againRip76 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:21 amYeah.Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:20 am Oh man it look like it shifted a bit east today guess we may be on the high and dry side.
On cue.
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redneckweather
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We are NOT in a pandemic anymore. We are below the threshold percentage wise on what is considered a pandemic. To make this weather related, the media is full of hot air and their models are driven by fear.
Come on fall weather!
Come on fall weather!
Are they running recon right now, or did they turn back?
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the
depression a few hours ago, and the plane made two center fixes
that were about 35 n mi apart, indicating that there are likely
multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common center. A
well-defined swirl coincident with the second center fix has become
apparent in visible satellite imagery, but for now a blend of the
aircraft fixes is being used for the initial position until we can
be sure the satellite feature is in fact the one and only center.
Flight-level and SFMR winds, outside of heavy rainfall, indicate
that the maximum winds remain 30 kt. Deep convection is still
lacking in organization, with the heaviest activity well to the
north near the Cayman Islands and along the Honduras coast.
The depression is moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt, along the
southwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and toward
a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This northwestward
motion is expected to persist for the entire 5-day forecast period,
with a decrease in forward speed anticipated while the cyclone
approaches the Yucatan coast. The track guidance has slowed down a
bit during that time, especially the GFS, and the new NHC forecast
is therefore a little slower than the previous forecast. After
that time, an increase in forward speed is expected, and the NHC
forecast lies to the west of the TVCN model consensus, closer to
the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA scenarios.
The structure of the depression aside, the environment still
appears conducive for strengthening while the system approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula. Vertical shear over the depression is currently
less than 10 kt and is expected to remain low for the next 36-48
hours, and sea surface temperatures will be around 30 degrees
Celsius. Therefore, steady intensification is shown in the official
forecast through 36 hours, and the NHC prediction lies near the
upper end of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and HWRF
solutions just before the center reaches the Yucatan coast. After
some weakening while over the Yucatan Peninsula, re-intensification
is likely to occur over the central Gulf of Mexico between days 2
and 3 while vertical shear remains relatively low, and the cyclone
could become a hurricane during that time, as shown by the HCCA,
HWRF, and HMON models. After day 3, southwesterly vertical shear of
30 kt or more is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf, and
the official forecast follows the trend of all the intensity
guidance, showing weakening by day 4 as the cyclone approaches the
southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana coastline. This
forecast remains highly uncertain, however, and users are urged to
continue monitoring changes to this forecast over the next couple
of days.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are expected to
diminish today.
2. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it is expected to
be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch
and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that
region.
3. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is
anticipated while it moves northwestward over the central Gulf of
Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how
strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will
produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in
that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system
over the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 16.6N 84.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 20.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/1200Z 25.1N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 28.7N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 31.3N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Berg
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the
depression a few hours ago, and the plane made two center fixes
that were about 35 n mi apart, indicating that there are likely
multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common center. A
well-defined swirl coincident with the second center fix has become
apparent in visible satellite imagery, but for now a blend of the
aircraft fixes is being used for the initial position until we can
be sure the satellite feature is in fact the one and only center.
Flight-level and SFMR winds, outside of heavy rainfall, indicate
that the maximum winds remain 30 kt. Deep convection is still
lacking in organization, with the heaviest activity well to the
north near the Cayman Islands and along the Honduras coast.
The depression is moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt, along the
southwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and toward
a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This northwestward
motion is expected to persist for the entire 5-day forecast period,
with a decrease in forward speed anticipated while the cyclone
approaches the Yucatan coast. The track guidance has slowed down a
bit during that time, especially the GFS, and the new NHC forecast
is therefore a little slower than the previous forecast. After
that time, an increase in forward speed is expected, and the NHC
forecast lies to the west of the TVCN model consensus, closer to
the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA scenarios.
The structure of the depression aside, the environment still
appears conducive for strengthening while the system approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula. Vertical shear over the depression is currently
less than 10 kt and is expected to remain low for the next 36-48
hours, and sea surface temperatures will be around 30 degrees
Celsius. Therefore, steady intensification is shown in the official
forecast through 36 hours, and the NHC prediction lies near the
upper end of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and HWRF
solutions just before the center reaches the Yucatan coast. After
some weakening while over the Yucatan Peninsula, re-intensification
is likely to occur over the central Gulf of Mexico between days 2
and 3 while vertical shear remains relatively low, and the cyclone
could become a hurricane during that time, as shown by the HCCA,
HWRF, and HMON models. After day 3, southwesterly vertical shear of
30 kt or more is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf, and
the official forecast follows the trend of all the intensity
guidance, showing weakening by day 4 as the cyclone approaches the
southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana coastline. This
forecast remains highly uncertain, however, and users are urged to
continue monitoring changes to this forecast over the next couple
of days.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are expected to
diminish today.
2. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it is expected to
be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch
and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that
region.
3. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is
anticipated while it moves northwestward over the central Gulf of
Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how
strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will
produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in
that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system
over the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 16.6N 84.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 20.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/1200Z 25.1N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 28.7N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 31.3N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Nothing has changed really from yesterday. Expect more adjustments to the track as the NHC gets a better grasp on the situation, and models start to converge on a landfall.
Track has been nudged a little west into Galveston Bay, and they are now leaning towards a strong tropical storm at landfall.
Track has been nudged a little west into Galveston Bay, and they are now leaning towards a strong tropical storm at landfall.
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I notice they have it at Hurricane strength for about a day, then weakening before land. Is this a dry air intrusion issue?
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TexasBreeze
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- Location: NW Houston, TX
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The NHC has been holding quite steady on track, but suspect the intensity will be lowered due to 30kt shear, and Laura to the east affecting it, and dry air entrainment. The main rain may be in the eastern area around the core and LCH area. My opinion not official....
C'mon FreeportTexasBreeze wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:36 am The NHC has been holding quite steady on track, but suspect the intensity will be lowered due to 30kt shear, and Laura to the east affecting it, and dry air entrainment. The main rain may be in the eastern area around the core and LCH area. My opinion not official....
C’mon Matagorda for me lolRip76 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:39 amC'mon FreeportTexasBreeze wrote: ↑Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:36 am The NHC has been holding quite steady on track, but suspect the intensity will be lowered due to 30kt shear, and Laura to the east affecting it, and dry air entrainment. The main rain may be in the eastern area around the core and LCH area. My opinion not official....
I just don't see it weakening before landfall. This is rarely the case with any storm let alone one entering the GOM with bath tub temperature water. I could be totally wrong but maybe someone can point to an example of this.
I keep losing my usernames. Formerly vertigoss/seanatsk.
Survived Ike in Katy, Harvey in Dickinson and Allison in my car.
Survived Ike in Katy, Harvey in Dickinson and Allison in my car.
What was the tropical storm that was totally eaten up by dry air as it moved into Texas a few years ago?
Tropical Storm Don of 2011. I don't expect that to happen though as that mainly happened due to the historical severe drought that year.
I believe it was Tropical Storm Don in 2011 that was shredded before making it to the Texas coastline.
Lol yea that is definitely 1 year I don't want to experience ever again. It was unreal watching that storm just dissolve like it did.