Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Paul]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

BAMMS shifting left....consensus coming around....

[Scott747]

0z HWRF is a bit N, near Brownsville.

0z GFDL is left and near the mid Texas coast.

T

[Mr. T]

0z HWRF is a bit N, near Brownsville.

a lot slower, too

0z GFDL is left and near the mid Texas coast.

Between Houston and Corpus, lol

[Paul]

0z HWRF is a bit N, near Brownsville.

a lot slower, too

0z GFDL is left and near the mid Texas coast.

Between Houston and Corpus, lol

actually the GFDL is right into Freeport / surfside as a stout CAT 2 storm....put the west side of Brazoria County in the right front quad.....

highly doubt it will verify...I think it is taking small steps to catch up to the rest of the models...


EDIT to add that it makes it up to 96knots right before landfall....that is IKE intensity...high end Cat 2 at 110.4 MPH

[Andrew]

0z HWRF is a bit N, near Brownsville.

a lot slower, too

0z GFDL is left and near the mid Texas coast.

Between Houston and Corpus, lol

actually the GFDL is right into Freeport / surfside as a stout CAT 2 storm....put the west side of Brazoria County in the right front quad.....

highly doubt it will verify...I think it is taking small steps to catch up to the rest of the models...

I think it is possible I mean I believe the trough will impact the storm and if the storms really intensifies more than originally thought then it could take that northern route. My person belief is that Alex is actually going to go into Corpus.

[tgal]

This year there is less excitement as the storms begin to swirl because all I can think about is the oil covered Gulf and its people being hit while they are down.

I would appreciate it if some of the pros would add comments about how you believe the oil issue will play into the storm paths.

I look forward to another interesting year and thanks to all of you in advance. I know how helpful you will be this season

[Paul]

I dont know how much that trof is going to dig...but I do know behind it will be a high building in...going to be interesting....EURO comes out in 45 minutes.....wanna make a bet it stick to its guns?

[Ptarmigan]

actually the GFDL is right into Freeport / surfside as a stout CAT 2 storm....put the west side of Brazoria County in the right front quad.....

highly doubt it will verify...I think it is taking small steps to catch up to the rest of the models...


EDIT to add that it makes it up to 96knots right before landfall....that is IKE intensity...high end Cat 2 at 110.4 MPH

If Alex was a Category 2 hurricane hitting our area in June that would be on the record books as rather unusual. On the flip side, it is not as large as Ike. I doubt Alex would be a Category 2, but can't rule that out either.

[Scott747]

0z HWRF is a bit N, near Brownsville.

a lot slower, too

0z GFDL is left and near the mid Texas coast.

Between Houston and Corpus, lol

actually the GFDL is right into Freeport / surfside as a stout CAT 2 storm....put the west side of Brazoria County in the right front quad.....

highly doubt it will verify...I think it is taking small steps to catch up to the rest of the models...


EDIT to add that it makes it up to 96knots right before landfall....that is IKE intensity...high end Cat 2 at 110.4 MPH

Actually it's more towards Sargent and 90 knots offshore.

[Paul]

surfside / sargent...close enough..and its 96.5 knots off shore then drops to 87.8 knots right before landfall...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation


lets not split hairs....

[Paul]

Lets keep an eye on the dModel/dt, as I've seen it described in AFDs. The new GFDL is 'trending' leftward from the old one. Is that a trend, or not? The 6Z and 12Z GFDL may tell the tale. But if it is a trend, and the GFDL isn't oscillating around a SW Louisiana/Upper Texas Coast landfall, which I suspect it isn't, next run may be down towards BRO or CRP.

I think its playing catch up myself....it had to at some point the odds were against it after the HWRF did a total 180....the GFDL is just doing it increments.....

[Paul]

surfside / sargent...close enough..and its 96.5 knots off shore then drops to 87.8 knots right before landfall...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation


lets not split hairs....

The 87.8 knots is at 35 meters, and as the statement advises, 10 meter winds will usually be less.

your splitting hairs ED....

[Scott747]

surfside / sargent...close enough..and its 96.5 knots off shore then drops to 87.8 knots right before landfall...

lets not split hairs....

I'm not 'splitting hairs.'

Just giving a more accurate representation of what the model was showing.

No worries.

[Mr. T]

0z Euro is waaaaay south again

[Paul]

0z Euro is waaaaay south again

post it...my sites have not updated..got another 15minutes for me..

[Scott747]

0z Euro is waaaaay south again

Still can't see it going that far S.

[Mr. T]

0z Euro is waaaaay south again

post it...my sites have not updated..got another 15minutes for me..

[Scott747]

Although it's currently moving westward even though it's supposed to resume the wnw heading.

[Mr. T]

Still can't see it going that far S.

Yeah. It would be a rather strange track... You have to admit, though, that it has been on the ball regarding the more southerly route, while other tropical models have had a northerly bias thus far. Just looking at the latest satellite presentation would suggest that TD 1 really isn't gaining much latitude at the moment. The Euro keeps a general WNW motion through the period.

[Paul]

you would think that now it is a TS it would gain some lat....that is like way way south....that super trof is not as bad as the GFS is progging....