Re: OCTOBER 2018 - Stormy Halloween
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:35 am
Yep. Brooks talked about that on his mid morning report on Facebook..
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Cromagnum wrote:What time is the 2nd round supposed to hit. I am going to be livid if I get stuck at the airport overnight on top of the current delay. We were supposed to arrive at 1 originally (when all of the current crap has long passed), and now arriving around 9 PM.
Could be dicey if you're arriving around 9:00 this evening. The mess out in central and northern TX will become a little bit better organized over the next few hours forming linear (squall line) as it approaches SETX this evening. This will bring torrential rain as atmosphere is very moist surface well on up. Also the potential for some severe weather... with straight line winds and hail being the main threat. Can't rule out an isolated tornado threat along and ahead of the main line if we get some discreet supercells to form ahead of it with a strong LLJ in place.Cromagnum wrote:What time is the 2nd round supposed to hit. I am going to be livid if I get stuck at the airport overnight on top of the current delay. We were supposed to arrive at 1 originally (when all of the current crap has long passed), and now arriving around 9 PM.
Yeah, they missed the window. The 2nd wave of storms should be moving from CLL to HOU between about 7 and 9 pm this evening.Cromagnum wrote:What time is the 2nd round supposed to hit. I am going to be livid if I get stuck at the airport overnight on top of the current delay. We were supposed to arrive at 1 originally (when all of the current crap has long passed), and now arriving around 9 PM.
Code: Select all
Mesoscale Discussion 1601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Areas affected...parts of east to eastern Texas and far western
Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 311914Z - 312145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage and intensity by
late afternoon across central into east-central Texas, continuing
into western Louisiana after 9-10 pm. Damaging winds will be
possible initially, with a couple tornadoes increasingly possible
through the night.
DISCUSSION...An axis of substantial moisture and instability
currently stretches from Deep South TX northward to an approaching
cold front. Lift is increasing across the region in association with
a leading shortwave trough, with an abrupt wind shift noted above
the surface at the DFX VWP. Lift is strongest where this feature
intersects the surface front, currently over central TX where a
cluster of elevated storms exists.
With time, storms should increase in intensity as they translate
southeastward. Severe wind is possible as storms become more linear
in a few hours. Veering winds above the surface will mitigate SRH
and tornado threat for western parts of the discussion area.
However, a tornado threat may eventually materialized over eastern
areas.
For southeastern TX into LA, early-day convection has left
relatively cool air across the Houston area where showers persist.
Area VWPs show marginally favorable wind profiles for supercells,
which should get better with time as both the low-level jet and
winds aloft increase. Here, effective SRH around 200-300 should
develop this evening. As a result, a few storms near the upper TX
coast toward southwest LA may become supercells, and a tornado
cannot be ruled out. In addition, a burst of new development may
occur immediately ahead of any approaching squall line from the
west, with tornado threat.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/31/2018
...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0998
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018
Areas affected...ArkLaTexOma
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 311914Z - 010114Z
Summary...Convergence of tropical moisture with a surface cold
front with a jet streak entering from the south will raise a flash
flood threat with hourly rates of up to 2 inches possible into
this evening.
Discussion...A cold front driven by widespread convective activity
across north TX (with a squall shifting east across north TX this
afternoon) and southeast OK will continue to drift east/southeast
over northeast TX and into AR/LA into this evening. Surface based
activity ahead of the front will encounter instability of 1500
J/kg per latest RAP mesoanalysis in a zone of low 70 degree
dewpoints. PWATs are on the order of 1.6-1.8" per 18Z GPS data,
which is 2 standard deviations above normal. Furthermore, a 100kt
SWly jet is nosing into south TX per 250mb and above derived
motion winds from GOES-16.
A favorable flash flood setup is developing over Northeast TX and
farther northeast into AR/LA with low level moisture convergence,
mid level flow parallel to the surface front, and increasingly the
left exit of the jet that will drift southeast over south TX per
12Z guidance consensus. Am in agreement with recent HRRR runs
highlighting this area with potential excessive rain despite near
or below normal rainfall in the past week for much of the threat
area.
Activity has remained progressive this afternoon across north TX
and since rain cooled air continues to win the battle at the
front, so the flash flood threat should be isolated going into
this evening with localized rain rates up to 2 in/hr.
Jackson
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LZK...SHV...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...
I agree, but SPC is seeing something persuading them to issue a Watch shortly. I trust their eyes more than mine.jasons wrote:I don’t see any sort of break this afternoon which would allow much instability to build. Looks like a mostly rain event to me.
Hope that's the case. Southwest just lost my future business. They cancelled many flights into Houston earlier when other carriers landed +/- 30 minutes around when ours should have. Lost an entire day of vacation and I'm not even home yet. Worried about the 2nd flight they have us on getting in at 9jasons wrote:I don’t see any sort of break this afternoon which would allow much instability to build. Looks like a mostly rain event to me.
Was just about to mention that... If you're in the Sugar Land/Missouri City area... keep a close eye to the cell approaching your SW. Radar shows rotation is increasing. This storm is heading NE and will work itself into SW Harris County near Bellaire in the next 30-45 minutes.sau27 wrote:That storm Southwest of town is starting to look suspiciously supercelly
I'm seeing a little right turn. NW Harris Co - keep your eyes and iPhones peeled.Belmer wrote:Was just about to mention that... If you're in the Sugar Land/Missouri City area... keep a close eye to the cell approaching your SW. Radar shows rotation is increasing. This storm is heading NE and will work itself into SW Harris County near Bellaire in the next 30-45 minutes.sau27 wrote:That storm Southwest of town is starting to look suspiciously supercelly