June Weather Discussion

[wxdata]

Do yall think these storms will keep it up in time to impact the kingwood area? Hoping to see some storms

I think you'll receive some rain, how stormy it will be is uncertain at this time.

[wxdata]

Still seeing rotation just north of Conroe.

[srainhoutx]

If the 12Z WRF is correct, we will again see a chances for showers/storms tomorrow across the area.

[ticka1]

We don't need alot of rain south of I-10 out east...but just concerned if this gets to the downtown area where I work and if it will flood? I'll keep reading the posts and watching the radar - I think that will give me my best answer. Interesting event to say the least - another busy day on this forum.

[ticka1]

[quote="srainhoutx"]If the 12Z WRF is correct, we will again see a chances for showers/storms tomorrow across the area./quote]

Just curious are we suppose to see any rain this weekend? Models forecasting anything or will it be hot and dry?

[svrwx0503]

If the 12Z WRF is correct, we will again see a chances for showers/storms tomorrow across the area./quote]

Just curious are we suppose to see any rain this weekend? Models forecasting anything or will it be hot and dry?

Models continue to show a ridge building in from the east so things will start to warm up but there still could be some widely scattered showers around this weekend.

[wxdata]

Outflow boundary developing in northwest Harris.

[wxdata]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/09/10 1847Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1832Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MCS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTERN TX CONTINUES
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL VORT
CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND IR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF ENHANCEMENT:
ONE AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH BEST ENHANCEMENT
OVER GRIMES COUNTY AND A SECOND AREA WHICH IN THE LAST FEW IMAGES
HAS BEEN COOLING/EXPANDING IS CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS. THE BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS AROUND
2.2" THROUGHOUT THE DISCUSSION AREA. MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE
AROUND .6"/30 MIN RAIN RATES IN THE FIRST AREA OF ENHANCEMENT AND AROUND
1.0"/30 MIN IN THE AREA OF ENHANCEMENT OVER NE TEXAS.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 19Z-22Z....MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK...WITH HIGH 3 HOUR FFG VALUES DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IN THIS OUTLOOK BUT OVERALL EXPECT TWO AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TO OCCUR OVER E CENTRAL AND NE TX INTO NW LA AND SW AR. THE OVERALL STORM
MOTION IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN EARLIER SO EXPECT A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES
OF RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH 1-2"/HR RATES IN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/SW AR/ NW LA. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE
TO STEER THE CONVECTION SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD MINIMIZING THE THREAT FOR
PROLONGED TRAINING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff this afternoon...

Excessive rainfall continues to pound areas from Huntsville to near Columbus and NW to Waco.

Doppler radar indicates widespread 3-6 inches have fallen with isolated totals of 8-10 inches over Burleson County. Flash flooding is ongoing over portions of Brazos, Burleson, Washington and Grimes counties.

Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Waller, Montgomery, and Walker Counties.

Tropical low spinning away E of Austin at this hour with widespread heavy rains surrounding this system. Slight mid level drying has recently allowed more downdraft activity within cells helping o generate a larger surface cold pool and slow E to ESE transition of the main southern flank of convection. Very moist Gulf inflow of upper 70’s degree dewpoints and strong heating along the coast will help maintain a very unstable air mass feeding this complex into the afternoon hours. There is some indication that the SW flank along I-10 may be stalling while the cold pool surges eastward over Waller into Montgomery counties.

The threat for flooding and flash flooding will continue for several hours over the NW 1/3rd of SE TX with Austin, Waller, Montgomery, and Waller counties gradually coming under the influence of the heavier rains. Not sure how much further southward this band will work before it begins to weaken late this afternoon. I am surprised there has been very limited development to none feeding into this system. Increased low level flow off the Gulf has stunted any developing seabreeze boundary.

Rainfall rate of 4.0 inches in 50 minutes was recorded this morning in Seguin, TX.

Hydro:
Severe flash flood event in progress along the Guadalupe River from New Braunfels to Gonzales. Evacuations of camp sites, parks, and residential homes are in progress around Seguin.

At Seguin, the river rose nearly 19ft reaching flood stage around 1030am and now is at 22.5 ft at 11:25 am. The river is continuing a very rapid rise and should crest near 32 feet this afternoon. At levels of 32.0 ft homes in the floodplain are ripped from their foundations with many homes flooded to the rooftops. Recreational camps along the river are flooded and destroyed. All of Treasure Island and Lake McQueeny are inundated with fast moving flood water.

Forecast rise at Gonzales to 38.5 ft Thursday afternoon (Flood Stage is 13.4 ft). At 40.0 ft water overtops the Hwy 183 bridges closing it to traffic. Portions of the City park are flooded with up to 9 ft of flood water.

[wxdata]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
154 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 148 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING WAS OCCURRING FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLLEGE STATION.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WERE REPORTING WATER COVERED ROADS
AND WATER IN HOMES IN AND AROUND THE COLLEGE STATION AREA. WATER
COVERED ROADS STILL PLAGUE PARTS OF BURLESON COUNTY. ALTHOUGH RAIN
HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE...FLOOD WATERS WILL
BE SLOW TO RECEDE...THUS THE FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WELLBORN...QUARRY...NORTH ZULCH...MILLICAN...LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM...
KURTEN...INDEPENDENCE...IOLA...CHRIESMAN...CARLOS...BEDIAS...WIXON
VALLEY...SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...MIDWAY...MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...
BURTON AND BRYAN.

[wxdata]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
150 PM CDT WED JUNE 9 2010

...NEW RECORD DAILY RAINFALL FOR BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION...

SO FAR TODAY THE LATEST RAINFALL READING AT EASTERWOOD FIELD AIRPORT
IN BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION IS 4.27 INCHES...WHICH SETS A NEW RECORD
FOR THE DAY.

THE PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD RAINFALL WAS 4.26 INCHES BACK IN 1946
...WHICH WAS 64 YEARS AGO.

[wxdata]

From Houston's NWS-

Current plan with tornado watch 286 - will expire watch west of i-45. Keep watch until 21z 4pm cdt for Montgomery, Walker, Houston (county), Trinity, Polk and Liberty.

[wxdata]

From Houston's NWS-

Current plan for Flood Watch - will keep watch going for northern half of forecast area north of an Austin to Polk county line. Watch will not include Harris or Liberty county. Watch will be extended until 7pm Thursday.

[biggerbyte]

Say bye bye to this event, folks. This is clearly a north and west issue.

[ticka1]

Say bye bye to this event, folks. This is clearly a north and west issue.

Kinda glad didn't need all this rain and flooding - it would of ruined my garden.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
250 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CLEVELAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO SHEPHERD.

[weatherguy425]

Any chance thunderstorms could develop along the southern periphery of the shortwave?

[biggerbyte]

Okay guys...

I must be missing something. We are under a area flood watch until Thursday night, and the NWS is calling for a good chance of heavy rain through this period. Where exactly do they expect it to come from..Uranus? Or was that Neptune?? Hmm!

[Ptarmigan]

No rain for us. Nice to have some rain. On the other hand, areas north and east of us could use it more than we do.

I do notice some development over Mexico west of Del Rio.

[ticka1]

Noticing the rain on radar out in Mexico - will any of those areas head towards texas tonight or tomorrow?