January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Progressive mostly zonal flow will maintain generally mild weather for January standards along with a couple of chances of rainfall.

One such upper level disturbance is moving across coastal TX currently with showers widespread over the Gulf waters with less coverage inland where moisture and lift are weaker. This disturbance will continue eastward today into the upper level flow aloft with the best rain chances along the coast and offshore. A few showers will be possibly inland north of I-10, but amounts will be light…generally less than .25 of an inch.

Pacific cold front will sweep across the region early Friday clearing skies and actually resulting in warming temperatures as winds turn W to WNW in the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid 60’s to low 70’s across the region.

Another fast moving and potent upper level storm system will cross TX on Saturday. This system has much stronger dynamics to work with and models are showing rapidly developing surface low pressure over SE TX on Saturday with quickly moves eastward and deepens. Moisture return off the Gulf is meager with very little time between the Friday front and the Saturday arrival of the next system…will focus rain chance again toward the Gulf waters and east of I-45. Bigger item of interest will likely be the surface pressure gradient which really increases as the surface low deepens on Saturday. Strong NW winds will develop in the wake of the surface low with likely frequent gusts to Gale force over the open Gulf waters and Wind Advisories for at least the coastal counties (30-40mph gusts). This will also usher in a much colder air mass.

Sunday Morning Houston Marathon:
Should be generally partly cloudy skies with still some decent NW/N winds of 10-20mph and temperatures starting in the mid 30’s warming into the 50’s by noon.

Sub-Tropical Storm Alex:
Rare sub-tropical storm formed yesterday afternoon over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean after moving from off the US east coast late last week to now south of the Azores Islands. Overnight satellite images show a vastly improved amount of organization with the system with moderate convection having wrapped around a clearing eye-like feature. Satellite and model estimates continue to suggest Alex remains sub-tropical in nature with a semi-warm core and generally large wind field, but the organization of satellite is impressive and Alex certainly is looking more tropical than yesterday. Winds have been increased to 70mph and through extra-tropical processes some additional intensification is possible. Current track guidance brings Alex over the Azores Islands in the next 24-36 hours with storm conditions.

The formation of Alex in January is extremely rare…only 4 other tropical or sub-tropical systems have been declared in the month of January since 1851…the last was in 1978. This is the first system of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, which starts June 1. The next name on the list will be Bonnie. The normal formation date of the first Atlantic names system in July 9th.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ GEFS Super Ensembles Analogs continue to advertise a chilly and unsettled pattern late January into early February. Interestingly one of the biggest snowfalls recorded in Houston occurred on February 12, 1960 when 4.4 inches of snow was measured. I have a picture of me playing in that snow event. Perhaps I will scan that black and white old photo today and post it.

[Katdaddy]

On a side note.....its official we now have Hurricane Alex in the E Atlantic:

HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016

...ALEX BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 28.4W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

[ticka1]

The 00Z Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ GEFS Super Ensembles Analogs continue to advertise a chilly and unsettled pattern late January into early February. Interestingly one of the biggest snowfalls recorded in Houston occurred on February 12, 1960 when 4.4 inches of snow was measured. I have a picture of me playing in that snow event. Perhaps I will scan that black and white old photo today and post it.

My mom has pictures and home movies of that snowfall - my older sister was only 2-3 weeks old. There were high drifts all over the place. I wish we could see that kind of snowfall here again.

[texoz]

On a side note.....its official we now have Hurricane Alex in the E Atlantic:

HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016

...ALEX BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 28.4W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

Only the 2nd known Atlantic hurricane on record in January. Also of note:
1) strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in Janaury
2) and there's a Hurricane Pali in the Pacific, first time on record to have hurricanes in Pacific & Atlantic in January. and Pali is the earliest named Pacific hurricane on record.

Things that make you go, "Hmmm."

[wxman57]

It looks like Pali was well below hurricane strength by the time Alex was classified as a hurricane. JTWC had Pali at 70 kts yesterday afternoon though ASCAT indicated no more than 25 kts.

[texoz]

It looks like Pali was well below hurricane strength by the time Alex was classified as a hurricane. JTWC had Pali at 70 kts yesterday afternoon though ASCAT indicated no more than 25 kts.

Right, but we continue to see anomolous tropical events around the globe during this record-setting El Nino. This includes the two typhoons, Chapala and Megh, in the Arabian Sea striking Oman and Yemen. Chapala ranks as 2nd strongest TS on record for Arabian Sea, with Gonu (2007) as the strongest. Since 2004 we seem to be charting new territory every season in every corner of the world's oceans.

[Katdaddy]

Dense Fog Advisory across the Upper TX Coast this morning but will have clearing skies today with low 70s. Hurricane Alex currently moving through the Azores at 75MPH. Showers Saturday followed by clearing skies Sunday morning for the Chevron Houston Marathon.

[srainhoutx]

The morning updated Climate Prediction Center Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs tend to favor a vigorous storm system late next week across our Region. While the ECMWF and European EPS are sniffing a Southern tracking storm, it appears to be mainly a rain and possible thunder event for us here in Texas. There could be enough cold air left to our NE across the Tennessee Valley for some snow, but it is way too soon to get into the finer details. We are seeing some trends via the various Hemispheric pattern that suggests a reoccurring theme of a Major Winter Storm across the Desert SW/New Mexico/Texas and the Southern Plains about every 30 days if we go back to Thanksgiving of last year. We had a major weather event During the Christmas Holiday weekend and if that pattern is viable, another big storm may be possible as we end January and begin February. I will caution folks that are lamenting the Winter is over. We have about 7 to 8 weeks left for things to evolve before we can begin to dream of warm Spring days.

01152016 CPC Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

01152016 00Z Euro EPS 168 ecmwf-ens_z500a_sd_namer_8.png

01152016 00Z Euro ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_8.png

01152016 10Z Day 7 QPF p168i.gif

[jasons2k]

Well it sure is beautiful outside today! I'll enjoy the wonderful 70's while we have them!

[srainhoutx]

The Friday Experimental Climate Prediction Center Week 3 and 4 Outlook suggests our Region will be colder and unsettled as we end the month of January and begin February.

[srainhoutx]

For those participating in the Houston Marathon, temperatures Sunday morning look to be in the low to mid 40's. A bit of a wild card is the wind. A very deep surface low is expected to combine with the strong mid upper winds of the sub tropical jet S of Louisiana. Strong gusty Northerly winds may be an issue for the Marathon Runners.

[srainhoutx]

Shortwave currently working its way SE from the Big Bend will drag a strong cold front S across the Lone Star State today. Pressure falls are noted near Matagorda Bay as cyclogenesis begins to organize with a deepening Coastal Low developing. Showers and thunderstorms will likely increase this morning along the Coastal tier of Counties mainly S of I-10 as the Coastal Low continues to deepen. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe over the Coastal Waters can be expected into the afternoon hours before the cold front sweeps through the Region. Temperatures look to turn much colder with low clouds and very breezy Northerly winds as the Coastal Low wraps up and heads East South of the Louisiana Gulf Coast this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for severe storms mainly SW and S of Metro Houston. Hail and gusty winds along with offshore potential of a water spout or two being the primary concern.

Marathon weather for Sunday morning looks cloudy and breezy with temperatures in the low 40"s possibly warming into the low to mid 50's, if the clouds break by early afternoon. May see temperatures approach freezing Sunday night/early Monday for inland locations and typical cold spots across SE Texas. Another fast moving dry shortwave is expected Monday afternoon/evening. The next rain chance looks to arrive Wednesday into Thursday as a stronger shortwave moves across the Region. The longer range guidance continues to advertise a fast progressive flow pattern from California across our area with storm systems moving across every 3 to 4 days.

[srainhoutx]

01162016 mcd0023.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161710Z - 161945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A RASH OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN A
REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW.
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE
HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/16/2016


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[Heat Miser]

And here comes the boring. Just waiting for Spring now.

[srainhoutx]

What a great weather day for the Houston Marathon Runners. Perfect mid January Chamber of Commerce weather day for all that are participating.

As of today the Arctic Oscillation has reached near -6 and has been in a negative phase the longest since December 2013. The Pacific North American (PNA) continues to hover near the +2 Range and has delivered the coldest air of the season to the Northern Plains and Upper Mid West where temperatures are near 0F and windchill values are running -20F to-30F. Once Hurricane Alex that brushed the Azores before transitioning to Extra Tropical has turned East and phased with another Extra Tropical Low over the Canadian Maritimes.

01172016 AO ao_sprd2.gif

01172016 Tele Indices 4panel.png

A fast progressive flow continues across the Lower 48 with Pacific Storms lined up set to impact Northern California through the coming week. The Sierra's and the Cascades are benefiting with the current pattern with some locations nearing 250% of there annual snowfall. That is very beneficial for those drought parched Regions out West. Our Texas Drought has been totally wiped out, which is a good thing considering where we were just a short year ago. This strong El Nino has certainly benefited many areas that sorely needed persistent moisture to replenish the snowpack and our local Region's area lakes.

01172016 10Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif

01172016 TX Drought current_tx_trd.png

The upcoming work week will offer a mid week storm system dropping SE into the NW flow aloft bringing another chance of rainfall and hopefully a nice mid Winter weekend next week.

The current Teleconnection Indices and the MJO suggest the tropical convection has shifted back to the Indian Ocean. The morning Updated GEFS Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs do suggest the chance of Western Gulf lows developing with the best chance of precipitation along the West Coast, Gulf Coast, Florida and the South Eastern United States. The overnight Operation and Ensemble Guidance are 'sniffing' the potential of a rather potent Storm System during the late January timeframe. Chilly and unsettled weather looks to build across the Western half of the Lower 48 during the late January timeframe with Ridging and a warming trend areas across the Plains and the East Coast. Some of the longer range ensemble guidance does suggest that changes may be lurking across Western Canada as we end January and begin February. Those ensembles are indicating that below normal temperatures will finally develop across our source Regions of Eastern Alaska and Western Canada. IF the longer range ensembles are correct, such a pattern may coincide with our climatologically favored wintry weather peak season of early/mid February. We will see.

01172016 00Z GEFS Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

01172016 00Z ECMWF 240 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_11.png

01172016 Indian Ocean irnm5.gif

01172016 06Z GEFS 360 gfs-ens_z500a_sd_namer_61.png

01172016 CFS 480 cfs-avg_z500a5d_namer_4.png

From NWS Albuquerque regarding the current MJO State and the potential effects later this month:

01172016 ABQ MJO 12400707_1018708971485427_7534828783721823620_n.jpg

[cperk]

srainhoutx great analysis,as usual you know how to bring it.

[srainhoutx]

Another frosty morning in NW Harris County with frost all the way down to the grassy surfaces and car tops this morning. Our next weather maker locally is organizing along the West Coast and will bring a chance of showers and storms mid week mainly across the Eastern half of Texas before wrapping up and becoming the Major Weather Headline Maker across the Mid Atlantic and the North East United States as a Nor'easter with potentially very heavy snowfall across portions of the Carolina's, Virginia, Washington DC and further up the 1-95 Corridor into New York City and Boston.

01182016 SPC Day 3 day3otlk_0830.gif

01182016 00Z 120 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_6.png

01182016 00Z 144 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_7.png

01182016 06Z 120 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20.png

Attention next weekend turns back to our Region for the potential of a significant widespread Winter type storm with a potent upper level disturbance and a possible Coastal Low organizing during the late weekend/early on the January 25-27 timeframe. That storm system is still a week out, but the various computer schemes and ensembles are in somewhat good agreement, so we will monitor to see what develops this week out West and heads our way later in the coming Weekend. We will see.

01182016 00Z 192 ecmwf_z500a_sd_namer_9.png

01182016 06Z 192 gfs_z500a_sd_namer_33.png

01182016 06Z 204 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_34.png

01182016 06Z 222 gfs_asnow_scus_38.png

[srainhoutx]

A quick look at the Teleconnection Indices suggest the Arctic Oscillation is near -5 and the Pacific North American (PNA) is expected to increase to near +4. The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is hovering near neutral or slightly positive and the North American Oscillation (NAO) is slowing relaxing from a negative phase toward a neutral/positive regime. The MJO is showing signs of moving back toward a Phase 1 position which tends to favor tropical convection across the Eastern Pacific and the Western Hemisphere. It will be interesting to monitor all these Hemispheric indicators to see what it brings to our Region regarding what we can expect for our sensible weather later this week and early next week as we head toward the end of January.

01182016 AO ao_sprd2.gif

01182016 Tele Indices 4panel.png

01172016 MJO ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

01182016 CPC GEFS Supe Ensemble Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

[wxman57]

The 12Z GFS is a bit more in line with the 00Z Euro in dropping the snow chances for central and SE TX next Tuesday. It just doesn't look like the airmass will be cold enough for any snow much south of the Red River.