Wx Infinity Forums

2 questions.

1. Will the aftermath of these rains be similar to the Ike aftermath? You know, millions of households left in the dark, roads completely impassable, etc?


2. This is hypothetical:

What if Hurricane Patricia were a gulf of Mexico storm (not pacific) and it was heading towards Houston/Galveston instead of Manzanillo, Mex right now. How would city officials respond? What would residents be instructed to do?

Paul Robison wrote:2 questions.

1. Will the aftermath of these rains be similar to the Ike aftermath? You know, millions of households left in the dark, roads completely impassable, etc?


2. This is hypothetical:

What if Hurricane Patricia were a gulf of Mexico storm (not pacific) and it was heading towards Houston/Galveston instead of Manzanillo, Mex right now. How would city officials respond? What would residents be instructed to do?

1. No

2. Similar to Rita or Ike I would presume. Luckily this is not the case.

srainhoutx wrote:As Dr. Neil will tell you, it's usually not a good thing when KHOU brings him back for the local newscast. Always good to see one of this online weather community biggest supporter. Turn on Channel 11/KHOU to get the latest.

Darn I missed it. Hope there is a video I can see..

Update from Jeff regarding Patricia:

At 615pm the center of Hurricane Patricia crossed the coast of Mexico at Cuixmala or 55 miles WNW of Manzanillo , MX. The hurricane made landfall with sustained winds of 165mph and a central pressure of 920mb…the inner eyewall appeared to collapse as the center neared the coast which is not surprising given how difficult it is to maintain such an intense hurricane to landfall as land friction comes into play. With that said…those locations in the eyewall of this hurricane are experiencing catastrophic damage. Video posted to Twitter just outside the eyewall wind maximum was easily sustained at over 100mph based on the howling nature.

A US hurricane intercept chase team appears to have been located very near or possibly at the landfall point, but there has been no contact with them since about mid afternoon.


(I will add that the chaser Jeff mentioned is not Josh. Josh did catch the eyewall, but is safe and communicating with Scott747 and providing updates on The Weather Channel).

do you know what chasers he was talking about?

unome wrote:do you know what chasers he was talking about?

No, I do not know. Perhaps Jeff will answer your question. He has been dropping in several times a day. Although tomorrow afternoon onward I am sure he will be very busy. I will try and get a message to him tomorrow on NWSchat.

A possible light in the tunnel? A possible saving grace? HGX says:

IF THE TRACK ENDS UP FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING...THEN
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD END UP OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THIS
STORM SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOTS OF ISSUES ALONG THE
COAST (INCLUDING HIGH TIDES AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND THEN LOWERING
TIDE LEVELS AND STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AS THE SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY). 42

I've heard that during an El Nino year, the forecast models do a LOUSY job with tracking low-pressure disturbances, so I don't think this is out of the question.

Wow. That's interesting. When Jeff says 'intercept team' it sounds like an organized group and my first thought was the Texas Tech research team but I'm not aware of them being in the area. And we would have heard about any of the handful of potential American chasers.

There really wasn't many options in the eventual landfall area. We were gonna have Josh move up towards Costa Careyes but it didn't sound like it was worth the risk. Not sure if the resort up there was open. There might have been a chaser there who would have taken a good hit.

Steve.. Get with Jeff if he knows who it is and if he doesn't turn up I'll see if Josh and Erik can inquire about him before they head out.

Paul Robison wrote:A possible light in the tunnel? A possible saving grace? HGX says:

IF THE TRACK ENDS UP FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING...THEN
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD END UP OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THIS
STORM SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOTS OF ISSUES ALONG THE
COAST (INCLUDING HIGH TIDES AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND THEN LOWERING
TIDE LEVELS AND STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AS THE SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY). 42

I've heard that during an El Nino year, the forecast models do a LOUSY job with tracking low-pressure disturbances, so I don't think this is out of the question.

I have saw no modeling to indicate the low tracking further offshore.

cperk wrote:

Paul Robison wrote:A possible light in the tunnel? A possible saving grace? HGX says:

IF THE TRACK ENDS UP FURTHER OFFSHORE THAN MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING...THEN
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD END UP OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THIS
STORM SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOTS OF ISSUES ALONG THE
COAST (INCLUDING HIGH TIDES AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND THEN LOWERING
TIDE LEVELS AND STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AS THE SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY). 42

I've heard that during an El Nino year, the forecast models do a LOUSY job with tracking low-pressure disturbances, so I don't think this is out of the question.

I have saw no modeling to indicate the low tracking further offshore.

That's right. There is no modeling.
BUT.....
Remember, they said if the track ends up further offshore THAN MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING. The models are NOT indicating it, true. But HGX seems open to that possibility. And, when I say forecast models don't handle lows during El Nino years, I'm quoting Accuweather's Henry Margusity.

Dr. Neil Frank on KHOU 11 this evening.

Dr Neil sharing his passion of weather and keeping us informed. Always positive.

Is Hurricane Patricia over land now?

I don't want to be rude but this has to stop. I check this forum regularly and seeing this stuff above is just complete nonsense.

davidiowx wrote:I don't want to be rude but this has to stop. I check this forum regularly and seeing this stuff above is just complete nonsense.

Taking care of it. Remember everyone keep posts factual and informative. Especially at this time where many are relying on the board for information.

00z GFS

GFS seems to be focusing-in along the coast/1st tier of inland counties. To be honest, I am a little skeptical of it being concentrated that far SE. We're talking tens of miles by now, but I see the center of Patrica's remnants tracking just slightly NW of there.

I think Houston, Harris County, and surrounding areas need to very keep a close watch on this.

Andrew wrote:00z GFS

Even though it's probably the last model run before we enter nowcast mode, that's impressive.
Looking forward to following the board for another event, good to see this place active after all the years.

That 00Z run is not a good sign.

HGX DISCO:

MOST PRECIP THIS EVENING IS NORTH/WEST OF SE TX. SO FOR US LOCALLY
THIS IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. ON SATURDAY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AND DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX. ADJUSTED THE
PRECIP AMOUNT FORECAST SOME TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST MODELS AND
WPC FORECAST. APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE COASTAL AND 1ST INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO AND JUST NORTH OF A SFC LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE UPPER
SE TX COASTLINE. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE IMPRESSIVE INFLOW AND
COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS DURING THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TOTAL AROUND 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS IN THIS AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA...CELL TRAINING
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL CREATE
A FLASH FLOOD THREAT AREAWIDE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING WHAT THIS
AIRMASS IS CAPABLE OF OFF TO OUR NW THIS EVE IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. 33