Wx Infinity Forums

Euro same as UKMET..


NHC...What do you do...

Houma and NO areas. Hmmm!

gocuse22 wrote:Euro is tracking west right near the LA coast

It's not tracking W at all. Up through Grand Isle and New Orleans.

Significant track change should be expected with the next advisory.

Scott747 wrote:

gocuse22 wrote:Euro is tracking west right near the LA coast

It's not tracking W at all. Up through Grand Isle and New Orleans.

Significant track change should be expected with the next advisory.

Yea was a close call for that one.

Goodbye RAIN!

djmike wrote:Goodbye RAIN!

way to early to say that one yet. Lets see what the 12z run brings before everyone jumps of the bridge so to speak.

If the LA landfall projections were modeled to occur in the next 48-60 hours, I would be ready to just about fold up shop on this one. However, the projected timing for the landfall, if it were to take place in LA, is 96 hours away. It looks like things are trending away from a TX landfall, but there is certainly time left for at least one more significant shift in the models.

txsnowmaker wrote:If the LA landfall projections were modeled to occur in the next 48-60 hours, I would be ready to just about fold up shop on this one. However, the projected timing for the landfall, if it were to take place in LA, is 96 hours away. It looks like things are trending away from a TX landfall, but there is certainly time left for at least one significant shift in the models.

Looking at the satellite though it already looks like the LLC is taking a turn to the west so lets see if that continues or if that was just a wobble.

As I mentioned earlier the trend had been further to the right with the 18z runs and is now completed with the Euro 0z run.

NHC will have to scramble with the 4am update. Might be a bit early to hoist hurricane watches but if the models verify Debbie will be approaching the La coast by hr 72.

Y'all humor me because I'm confused. Four hours ago everyone is convinced its coming to TX. A couple of models come in and everyone is convinced its not.i'm not being snarky, I just am trying to understand. Thanks for helping me figure this out.

I guess everyone in Texas are so desperate to hang on to something in hopes for rain. If these trends continue, it is only going to be hotter and drier. Not going to give up until Sunday night, but I must concede that it is not looking good. Even wxman57 was convinced of a westerly track into corpus. We all were. What a disappointment if this indeed verifies.

With that said nobody in our neck of the woods should breath a sigh of relief. Modeling as you can see can change in a heartbeat and there is nothing to say that we won't see a shift with the next set.

Disco at 4 should be a doozy.

Scott747 wrote:With that said nobody in our neck of the woods should breath a sigh of relief. Modeling as you can see can change in a heartbeat and there is nothing to say that we won't see a shift with the next set.

Disco at 4 should be a doozy.

Yea I am really thinking they aren't going to do a big change but have the center of the cone right on the border of Texas/ maybe a little to the east. I think we will see a couple surprises tomorrow especially with the movement of things.

Andrew wrote:

Scott747 wrote:With that said nobody in our neck of the woods should breath a sigh of relief. Modeling as you can see can change in a heartbeat and there is nothing to say that we won't see a shift with the next set.

Disco at 4 should be a doozy.

Yea I am really thinking they aren't going to do a big change but have the center of the cone right on the border of Texas/ maybe a little to the east. I think we will see a couple surprises tomorrow especially with the movement of things.

By surprises you mean changes back and forth. Or changes removing us from the equation?

cisa wrote:Y'all humor me because I'm confused. Four hours ago everyone is convinced its coming to TX. A couple of models come in and everyone is convinced its not.i'm not being snarky, I just am trying to understand. Thanks for helping me figure this out.

Is not just a couple of models. The trend in the ones showing in favor for Texas began shifting eastward. We were waiting on the Euro to see if it agreed, in hopes that it did not, and give us some remaining glimmer of hope. The models will flip again. Everyone in Texas is just on edge, so these flips away from us are difficult to swallow.

Andrew wrote:

Scott747 wrote:With that said nobody in our neck of the woods should breath a sigh of relief. Modeling as you can see can change in a heartbeat and there is nothing to say that we won't see a shift with the next set.

Disco at 4 should be a doozy.

Yea I am really thinking they aren't going to do a big change but have the center of the cone right on the border of Texas/ maybe a little to the east. I think we will see a couple surprises tomorrow especially with the movement of things.

That's what Im think aswell...NHC will prob move the cone to TX/LA borderor a tad eastward to cover themselves. It would be too embarassing to jump from STX to NOLA. ...JMO

Andrew wrote:

Scott747 wrote:With that said nobody in our neck of the woods should breath a sigh of relief. Modeling as you can see can change in a heartbeat and there is nothing to say that we won't see a shift with the next set.

Disco at 4 should be a doozy.

Yea I am really thinking they aren't going to do a big change but have the center of the cone right on the border of Texas/ maybe a little to the east. I think we will see a couple surprises tomorrow especially with the movement of things.

Generally the NHC doesn't like to make huge changes within one run but boy this has been one heck of a change in track. Before the Euro came out I was thinking that we might see something towards Freeport as the next track. Now I'm not so sure. Wouldn't surprise me to see something along the border or towards Morgan City which would be one of the biggest changes in track from one forecast to another that I may have ever seen.

cisa wrote:

Andrew wrote:

Scott747 wrote:With that said nobody in our neck of the woods should breath a sigh of relief. Modeling as you can see can change in a heartbeat and there is nothing to say that we won't see a shift with the next set.

Disco at 4 should be a doozy.

Yea I am really thinking they aren't going to do a big change but have the center of the cone right on the border of Texas/ maybe a little to the east. I think we will see a couple surprises tomorrow especially with the movement of things.

By surprises you mean changes back and forth. Or changes removing us from the equation?

I would just pay attention to llc movement tomorrow.

I don't think it'll move much. They're smart enough not to just follow the models from run to run. The center has been jumping from location to location toward the NE and as she begins to strengthen when the shear relaxes they'll shift west again. Just my humble opinion.

Scott747 wrote:

Andrew wrote:

Scott747 wrote:With that said nobody in our neck of the woods should breath a sigh of relief. Modeling as you can see can change in a heartbeat and there is nothing to say that we won't see a shift with the next set.

Disco at 4 should be a doozy.

Yea I am really thinking they aren't going to do a big change but have the center of the cone right on the border of Texas/ maybe a little to the east. I think we will see a couple surprises tomorrow especially with the movement of things.

Generally the NHC doesn't like to make huge changes within one run but boy this has been one heck of a change in track. Before the Euro came out I was thinking that we might see something towards Freeport as the next track. Now I'm not so sure. Wouldn't surprise me to see something along the border or towards Morgan City which would be one of the biggest changes in track from one forecast to another that I may have ever seen.

YEa but at the same time the Euro barely had enough of the trough to create a weakness to clip it to the north. If things don't go EXACTLY as planned it could easily shift west. If I was the NHC I would move it to the border, wait for the 12z and then make the big move. If you move it too much east and the models flip again then you really look foolish. Either way I am glad I don't have to write it.