March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers
Severe thunderstorm watch issued for most of the area except coastal counties until 9am. Includes Harris, Montgomery, and ft. Bend counties.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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Andrew
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While it is a little to early to discount anything the lack of formation of individual cells ahead of the line and the weakening of the line does look promising for the reduction of severe weather. Straight line winds and flooding look to be the biggest issue at this time but isolated tornadoes could be embedded. Keep an eye out everyone.
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All kinds of flooding reports out west in Austin, Waco to Corsicana. Many roads closed due to high water. Over 13,000 without power in the Austin Metro area. Heaviest rainfall appears to be in Bastrop Caldwell and Milam counties riding down south. This is a very serious flooding situation slowly heading east today. A radar estimate of 6" already in Waco. LCRA reports floodgate operations are underway at Starcke and Wirtz Dams. TXDOT has closed the lower portions of I-10 and I-35 in San Antonio due to flooding. Numerous water rescues are currently happening all across this line of storms.
Bottom line, this is all slowly moving east and it looks to be a messy day in E and SE Texas. Flash Flood Watch in effect. Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9AM.
Bottom line, this is all slowly moving east and it looks to be a messy day in E and SE Texas. Flash Flood Watch in effect. Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9AM.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0302
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL TX INTO MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91...
VALID 200743Z - 200915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91
CONTINUES.
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A MORE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE
APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING AND SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS APPEAR
TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD
POOL...WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SURGING EASTWARD AT UP
TO 40 KT. THE RISK FOR STRONG...POTENTIAL DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO
VICTORIA AND ADJACENT MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE 09-11Z
TIME FRAME. IT DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT NORTHWARD
INTENSIFICATION OF ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
THERE ALSO APPEARS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOL...IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET. IF THIS
OCCURS...A RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP.
..KERR.. 03/20/2012
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL TX INTO MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91...
VALID 200743Z - 200915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91
CONTINUES.
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A MORE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE
APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING AND SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS APPEAR
TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD
POOL...WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SURGING EASTWARD AT UP
TO 40 KT. THE RISK FOR STRONG...POTENTIAL DAMAGING...WIND GUSTS
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO
VICTORIA AND ADJACENT MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE 09-11Z
TIME FRAME. IT DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT NORTHWARD
INTENSIFICATION OF ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
THERE ALSO APPEARS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOL...IN THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET. IF THIS
OCCURS...A RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP.
..KERR.. 03/20/2012
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
If you want to know where the cold air is on this first day of spring you only have to head west a couple of states. Brrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!
Grand Canyon, Grand Canyon National Park Airport (KGCN)
Lat: 35.94611 Lon: -112.15472 Elev: 6608
Last Update on 20 Mar 0:54 MST
Fair
4°F
(-16°C)
Humidity: 83 %
Wind Speed: calm
Barometer: 29.95 in (1018.70 mb)
Dewpoint: 0°F (-18°C)
Wind Chill: 4°F (-16°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles
Grand Canyon, Grand Canyon National Park Airport (KGCN)
Lat: 35.94611 Lon: -112.15472 Elev: 6608
Last Update on 20 Mar 0:54 MST
Fair
4°F
(-16°C)
Humidity: 83 %
Wind Speed: calm
Barometer: 29.95 in (1018.70 mb)
Dewpoint: 0°F (-18°C)
Wind Chill: 4°F (-16°C)
Visibility: 10.00 Miles
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
It's edging closer and closer ...... Keep an eye to the sky this morning.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN DEWITT COUNTY...
EAST CENTRAL KARNES COUNTY...
* UNTIL 430 AM CDT.
* AT 402 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR RUNGE...OR ABOUT
10 MILES EAST OF KENEDY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE NORDHEIM AND YORKTOWN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN DEWITT COUNTY...
EAST CENTRAL KARNES COUNTY...
* UNTIL 430 AM CDT.
* AT 402 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR RUNGE...OR ABOUT
10 MILES EAST OF KENEDY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE NORDHEIM AND YORKTOWN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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srainhoutx
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Good morning. The HPC has placed SE TX in a High Risk for Flash Flooding today with totals exceeding 5 inches. It looks like the line of storms with a potential of embedded super cells will reach the area around 6-8 AM and creep E before possibly stalling along or just E of the I-45 Corridor. Be safe out there this morning. More a bit later.
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srainhoutx
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HGX issues Flood Advisory for Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Colorado, Grimes, Madison & Washington Counties.
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srainhoutx
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~Sigh~...Flood Threat increasing...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91...
VALID 201026Z - 201230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91
CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF WW 91 IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 12-13Z.
A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
EXTENSIVE EAST TEXAS SQUALL LINE HAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED A 40 KT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. FORWARD
PROPAGATION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 11-13Z. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS MID/UPPER
FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...IN ADVANCE OF THE STILL EVOLVING AND SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW/TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL DIMINISH. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LIKELY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE HAZARD...ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAINING/SLOW MOVING CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY INFLOW OF AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE AND SEASONABLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
..KERR.. 03/20/2012
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0303
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91...
VALID 201026Z - 201230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 91
CONTINUES.
HOWEVER...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF WW 91 IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 12-13Z.
A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
EXTENSIVE EAST TEXAS SQUALL LINE HAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED A 40 KT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. FORWARD
PROPAGATION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 11-13Z. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS MID/UPPER
FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...IN ADVANCE OF THE STILL EVOLVING AND SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW/TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL DIMINISH. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LIKELY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE HAZARD...ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAINING/SLOW MOVING CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY INFLOW OF AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE AND SEASONABLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
..KERR.. 03/20/2012
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
538 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 630 AM CDT
* AT 533 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 14 MILES WEST OF BELLVILLE TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF EAGLE LAKE
TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAGLE LAKE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 14 MILES WEST OF BELLVILLE TO 7 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS TO 15
MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAGLE LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO WALLIS...SEALY AND EAST BERNARD.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
538 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 630 AM CDT
* AT 533 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 14 MILES WEST OF BELLVILLE TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF EAGLE LAKE
TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAGLE LAKE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 14 MILES WEST OF BELLVILLE TO 7 MILES EAST OF COLUMBUS TO 15
MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAGLE LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO WALLIS...SEALY AND EAST BERNARD.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Morning brief e-mail from Jeff:
Will be brief as line of storms is moving across the area.
Severe Thunderstorms Watch in effect until 900am.
Line of strong to at times severe storms extends from Huntsville to Waller to Wharton moving ESE at 15-20mph. Main threat for for marginally severe winds along the leading edge of the line especially along I-10. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches in a very short period fo time is likely with this line, but thus far the line continues to march eastward as a large cold pool has been generated.
Will be brief as line of storms is moving across the area.
Severe Thunderstorms Watch in effect until 900am.
Line of strong to at times severe storms extends from Huntsville to Waller to Wharton moving ESE at 15-20mph. Main threat for for marginally severe winds along the leading edge of the line especially along I-10. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches in a very short period fo time is likely with this line, but thus far the line continues to march eastward as a large cold pool has been generated.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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LOL Ed ... House proper will be rainfall winner
Team #NeverSummer
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redneckweather
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Convection seems to be moving along at a steady clip....maybe some spots of 2 to 3 inches as this moves out way sooner than expected.
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srainhoutx
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Yes sir. The forecast was for 1-2 with isolated 2-4 and that appears to be about right at this time. The guidance has done a fairly good job suggesting a S to N orientation as the line got closer to us and that is happening now...redneckweather wrote:Convection seems to be moving along at a steady clip....maybe some spots of 2 to 3 inches as this moves out way sooner than expected.
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Will the rain be cleared out by later this afternoon after this line moves through?
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srainhoutx
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ticka1 wrote:Will the rain be cleared out by later this afternoon after this line moves through?
Maybe some light rains as the U/L stalls to our W and another piece of weaker short wave energy rotates beneath that upper low. Needless to say we likely will not see the 9 inches + that the San Antonio area had over night and the Hill Country Region needed this system to produce the rain more than week did. Also the cold air just arrived in NW Harris County and temps dropped 15F in less than 10 minutes. Very gusty N winds as well.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
732 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
TXZ227-237-238-201330-
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
732 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...
AT 729 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PECAN GROVE TO 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FIRST COLONY TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FIRST
COLONY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ROSHARON...JULIFF...
CHOCOLATE BAYOU...TOWN WEST...THOMPSONS...SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...
PECAN GROVE...MISSOURI CITY...MEADOWS...MANVEL...LIVERPOOL...IOWA
COLONY...HILLCREST...FRESNO...FIRST COLONY...BONNEY...ARCOLA AND
ALVIN.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
732 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
TXZ227-237-238-201330-
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
732 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...
AT 729 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PECAN GROVE TO 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FIRST COLONY TO 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FIRST
COLONY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ROSHARON...JULIFF...
CHOCOLATE BAYOU...TOWN WEST...THOMPSONS...SUGAR LAND...STAFFORD...
PECAN GROVE...MISSOURI CITY...MEADOWS...MANVEL...LIVERPOOL...IOWA
COLONY...HILLCREST...FRESNO...FIRST COLONY...BONNEY...ARCOLA AND
ALVIN.
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srainhoutx
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
733 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-210-211-201345-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
COLORADO-AUSTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE
733 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED. ONE HOUR
RAIN RATES ARE BETWEEN 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES.
$$
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ178-179-199-200-212>214-226-227-
235>238-201345-
MATAGORDA BAY-GALVESTON BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-SAN JACINTO-POLK-
MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-
JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
733 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...THE SQUALL LINE IS NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. THE SQUALL LINES EXTENDS FROM HUNTSVILLE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CONROE...KATY...ROSENBERG...AND WHARTON. ONE
HOUR RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE ARE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
733 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-210-211-201345-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-
COLORADO-AUSTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE
733 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE MAIN SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED. ONE HOUR
RAIN RATES ARE BETWEEN 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES.
$$
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ178-179-199-200-212>214-226-227-
235>238-201345-
MATAGORDA BAY-GALVESTON BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-SAN JACINTO-POLK-
MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-WALLER-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-
JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
733 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
.NOW...
THROUGH 8 AM...THE SQUALL LINE IS NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. THE SQUALL LINES EXTENDS FROM HUNTSVILLE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH CONROE...KATY...ROSENBERG...AND WHARTON. ONE
HOUR RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE ARE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OR GREATER POSSIBLE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
SPC AC 201236
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM
PORTIONS OF AR INTO ERN TX...LA AND FAR SWRN MS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY FORMING OVER ERN NM/WRN TX WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE D1 PERIOD. AN
ASSOCIATED 90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OVER NRN MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW AND REFORM OVER ERN PARTS OF
OK/TX TONIGHT.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NERN TX IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NWD INTO ERN KS/WRN MO BY AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
CYCLONE TRACKING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE EVOLVING MIDLEVEL LOW
/CURRENTLY OVER THE OK PNHDL/ WILL DRIFT SEWD INTO NWRN TX BY
AFTERNOON...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WEAKENS OVER ERN TX.
...ERN TX/AR/LA/SWRN MS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL JET STREAK/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATING AROUND PARENT LOW CENTER WILL BE MANIFEST IN A 50+ KT LLJ
DEVELOPING FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY NWD THROUGH THE OZARK
PLATEAU TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE MOISTURE FLUX AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN ZONE OF REGENERATIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG NOCTURNAL MCS COLD POOL CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM WRN AR INTO ERN TX. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CONFINED FROM AR SWD INTO ERN TX AND LA WHERE HIGHER THETA-E
INFLOW /I.E. MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J PER KG/ WILL RESIDE.
THE PRESENCE OF THE ALREADY-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING SUGGEST THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUST FRONT
INTERFACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST/LOW LCL BOUNDARY LAYER AND
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...BRIEF TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
...MO INTO CNTRL/ERN IA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE LEAD SURFACE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM UNO-PIA MAY BE DRAWN WWD OWING TO
THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO MIGRATORY CYCLONE...POTENTIALLY SERVING
AS THE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE LIKELY
REMAINING AOB 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...REGION WILL COINCIDE WITH A
40-50 KT SSELY LLJ WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. AS
SUCH...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
...VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON...
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF
ELONGATED MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL GIVE RISE TO
ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN RATHER WEAK...BUT THE PRESENCE OF MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND RESULTANT MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
...SWRN OK/NWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON...
WIDELY SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF
SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL CYCLONES WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
SBCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE RATHER COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
..MEAD/GARNER.. 03/20/2012
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM
PORTIONS OF AR INTO ERN TX...LA AND FAR SWRN MS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY FORMING OVER ERN NM/WRN TX WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE D1 PERIOD. AN
ASSOCIATED 90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK OVER NRN MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW AND REFORM OVER ERN PARTS OF
OK/TX TONIGHT.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NERN TX IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NWD INTO ERN KS/WRN MO BY AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
CYCLONE TRACKING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE EVOLVING MIDLEVEL LOW
/CURRENTLY OVER THE OK PNHDL/ WILL DRIFT SEWD INTO NWRN TX BY
AFTERNOON...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WEAKENS OVER ERN TX.
...ERN TX/AR/LA/SWRN MS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL JET STREAK/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ROTATING AROUND PARENT LOW CENTER WILL BE MANIFEST IN A 50+ KT LLJ
DEVELOPING FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY NWD THROUGH THE OZARK
PLATEAU TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE MOISTURE FLUX AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN ZONE OF REGENERATIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG NOCTURNAL MCS COLD POOL CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM WRN AR INTO ERN TX. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CONFINED FROM AR SWD INTO ERN TX AND LA WHERE HIGHER THETA-E
INFLOW /I.E. MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J PER KG/ WILL RESIDE.
THE PRESENCE OF THE ALREADY-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND CONSIDERABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING SUGGEST THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUST FRONT
INTERFACE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST/LOW LCL BOUNDARY LAYER AND
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...BRIEF TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
...MO INTO CNTRL/ERN IA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A LOW PROBABILITY RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE LEAD SURFACE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM UNO-PIA MAY BE DRAWN WWD OWING TO
THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO MIGRATORY CYCLONE...POTENTIALLY SERVING
AS THE FOCUS FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE LIKELY
REMAINING AOB 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...REGION WILL COINCIDE WITH A
40-50 KT SSELY LLJ WHICH WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. AS
SUCH...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
...VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON...
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF
ELONGATED MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL GIVE RISE TO
ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN RATHER WEAK...BUT THE PRESENCE OF MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND RESULTANT MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
...SWRN OK/NWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON...
WIDELY SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF
SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL CYCLONES WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
SBCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. GIVEN THE RATHER COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
..MEAD/GARNER.. 03/20/2012
- Attachments
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
Yes, this line will blow through in the next few hours and the rain should all be past us by around noon.ticka1 wrote:Will the rain be cleared out by later this afternoon after this line moves through?