Re: April Weather Discussion. Storm Chance Late Week?
Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 6:10 am
SPC has a large area under a Slight Risk for Friday that includes SE TX. It appears that timing and capping will be the main issues that will need to be ironed out over the next couple of days. Perhaps a Moderate Risk Upgrade? We shall see.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED APR 21 2010
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL CONUS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE WRN U.S. UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY A SEASONABLY-STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX EVOLUTION IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL INCLUDE A COLD FRONT SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT MOVING NWD ACROSS THE MID MS/MID MO VALLEY
REGION.
...MID MO/MID MS VALLEYS SWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST...COVERING THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM PARTS OF NEB/SRN IA/IL SWD
TO ERN TX/LA/MS...AHEAD OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER SYSTEM AS IT
PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. A COMPLEX SURFACE EVOLUTION
IS FORECAST -- THUS MAKING AREAS OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM. OVERALL HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EVOLVE BOTH
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL AND SRN
PLAINS...AND INVOF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXTEND ESEWD FROM NEB
INTO THE MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH A LARGE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AND WITH
STRONG/VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT...EXPECT NUMEROUS
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS -- PRIMARILY FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID EVENING.
AGAIN -- WHILE DETAILED EVOLUTION CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT A RELATIVE TORNADO MAXIMUM MAY OCCUR INVOF THE WARM
FRONT -- I.E. ACROSS MO AND VICINITY...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL MAY BE MAXIMIZED FROM SERN OK SSWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SERN TX.
FARTHER E -- INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION -- THE IMPETUS
FOR STORM INITIATION WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...WILL EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK EWD ACROSS AR/TX AND INTO
WRN TN...MS...AND LA.
..GOSS.. 04/21/2010
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED APR 21 2010
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL CONUS...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE WRN U.S. UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY A SEASONABLY-STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. AT THE SURFACE...A COMPLEX EVOLUTION IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL INCLUDE A COLD FRONT SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT MOVING NWD ACROSS THE MID MS/MID MO VALLEY
REGION.
...MID MO/MID MS VALLEYS SWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST...COVERING THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM PARTS OF NEB/SRN IA/IL SWD
TO ERN TX/LA/MS...AHEAD OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER SYSTEM AS IT
PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. A COMPLEX SURFACE EVOLUTION
IS FORECAST -- THUS MAKING AREAS OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ATTM. OVERALL HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL EVOLVE BOTH
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL AND SRN
PLAINS...AND INVOF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXTEND ESEWD FROM NEB
INTO THE MID MS/TN VALLEY REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH A LARGE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AND WITH
STRONG/VEERING WIND FIELD WITH HEIGHT...EXPECT NUMEROUS
SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS -- PRIMARILY FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID EVENING.
AGAIN -- WHILE DETAILED EVOLUTION CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED ATTM...IT
APPEARS THAT A RELATIVE TORNADO MAXIMUM MAY OCCUR INVOF THE WARM
FRONT -- I.E. ACROSS MO AND VICINITY...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL MAY BE MAXIMIZED FROM SERN OK SSWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SERN TX.
FARTHER E -- INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION -- THE IMPETUS
FOR STORM INITIATION WITHIN THE BROAD WARM SECTOR REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...GIVEN FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...WILL EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK EWD ACROSS AR/TX AND INTO
WRN TN...MS...AND LA.
..GOSS.. 04/21/2010