2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Cpv17]

12z Euro has a Caribbean Cruiser lol wow. I find that run very hard to believe.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 thats nuts, but holy mother of mary, check out that 12z EPS! Especially for the gulf

[Stratton20]

bruh

[Cpv17]

bruh

This is now 95L.

[TexasBreeze]

We will need to monitor 95l very carefully in the future. Yes there will be our heat dome, but it could move or break around the time the system gets to a more interesting area track wise. Both models show a Carib cruiser.

It also has a 60 percent orange by the end of 7 days now.

[Cpv17]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite images indicate that a tropical wave located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better
organized since yesterday with a more concentrated area of
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
unusually conducive for late June across the central and western
tropical Atlantic, and further development of this system is
anticipated. A tropical depression or tropical storm could form
this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands
while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[Stratton20]

unusually conducive? man you dont hear that all that time from the nhc in a tropical forecast discussion

[Pas_Bon]

bruh

“I’ve got a bad feeling about this.”
Han Solo c. A long, long time ago

[Stormlover2020]

Not worried till we have a center

[Cpv17]

It could just crash into Mexico like every other system has done too.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 It could, but I also think this system could pose a much higher threat to the US/ gulf coast , especially with a steering pattern like what the euro shows, recurve looks pretty unlikely right now with the bermuda high being really strong

[Pas_Bon]

Let’s say 95L does track across the Caribbean…..what timeframe would we be looking at for it to do so?
7 days until it would be nearing the Gulf?

[Stratton20]

I would say maybe around the 4-5th if it does get into the gulf like the majority of ensemble guidance suggests, its going to take a while to trek through the caribbean, assuming it stays in tact

[biggerbyte]

Folks, as the pattern stands now, tropical systems will stay south, or to our east. Our getting storms coming from the north today is proof of that.

[Cpv17]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
unusually conducive for late June across the central and western
tropical Atlantic, and further development of this system is
anticipated. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands
while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Stratton20]

biggerbyte not how that works, the upper air pattern 10-12 days from now wont be the same as it currently is, thats why the entire gulf coast, including texas, and also the SE US coast needs to watch this

[biggerbyte]

Yes, I know. I'm sure it will be changing. I'm merely suggesting based on current conditions.

[Stratton20]

The euro is showing an upper air pattern that could definitely draw a system towards the gulf coast, the euro is usually the best at handling upper air patterns the best so we will see , the 00z EPS is very aggressive still

[Stratton20]

06z GFS brings the system into the central gulf and tracks it WNW towards the middle texas coast, making landfall at day 10

[Stormlover2020]

Need a center y’all will get a headache model watching all night I’ve learn my lesson about 20 years ago