Looks like less of a chance of rain in CLL, but there's a chance over the next day or so in Houston.
Allegedly, we'll see lower DPs and there are definitely more clouds. Beggars can't be choosers!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
Upper level ridging generally centered around the Four Corners and
troffiness across the eastern part of the country will keep us in a
n/nw flow aloft. Disturbances riding southward in this flow, daytime
heating, a weak frontal boundary across ncntl parts of the CWA and
the seabreeze will contribute to some chances of much needed
rain...though just a minority of the area will see much of any
consequence.
Seeing some isolated activity on radar along the frontal boundary
across northeastern zones. This will likely sag southward and expand
somewhat late in the day/evening. Severe wx threat is low overall,
but if we manage to get a rogue stronger cell pop up, some
respectable wind gusts aren`t out of the question. Overall precip
coverage should decrease late this evening, but will maintain some
low POPs across southern parts overnight as an elongated piece of
vorticity pushes toward the coast and offshore.
Surface frontal boundary should be positioned a bit further south on
Sunday, so that`s where the better rain chances should be situated
in the afternoon hours.
In regards to the Heat Advisory for tonight & Sunday: will let the
advisory expire for northern parts of the area this evening and the
current plan is to keep the southern half of the CWA in it for
tomorrow. Lower dewpoints and RH`s north of the "front" should keep
heat indices below criteria there. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
The aforementioned UL ridge over the Four Corners will drift
eastward through mid-week. Though this will correspond with rising
UL pressure heights, the orientation of the ridge will place us
in a north to northeast UL flow regime. This will allow shortwaves
to approach southeast Texas from the northeast, enhancing PVA thus
upward motion. Therefore, it is no surprise the NBM is showing
moderate PoPs (at least in our southern/coastal counties). But
there are signs that the NBM`s PoPs may be too aggressive. A plume
of Saharan Dust is traversing westward across the Caribbean. The
dust plume could begin impacting the southeast Texas atmosphere as
soon as Monday with Tuesday-Thursday being the likely dust plume
days. Convective development tends to be limited by the associated
ML dry air that accompanies the Saharan Dust. Therefore, we
continue to forecast lower PoPs than suggested by the NBM.
However, the presence of incoming shortwaves from the northeast
made us opt to keep the modest daily PoPs over the southern half
of our CWA through much of next week. PoPs are relatively low in
our northern counties.
Regarding temperatures, the heat will still be cranking. Current
NBM leaning temp grids show widespread highs of 95-100F (low-90s
at the coast) with heat index values averaging around 104-107F.
Though technically just below heat advisory criteria, these
temperatures are still hot enough to warrant heat safety
precautions. Overnight lows will range from the mid-70s in rural
and particularly northern portions of our CWA, to low-80s near the
coast and within some of the warmest urban heat island spots.
By week`s end, global models suggest the ridge may drift back to
the west. A farther west ridge coupled with less Saharan Dust
could bring a better chance of rain to the CWA. For now, we are
not increasing expecting end of week PoPs.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
Anticipate that we`ll see some iso-sct shra/tstms develop after
21z in association with daytime heating, a diffuse frontal
boundary across northern parts of the area and also weak
seabreeze boundary across southern parts. Varying model solutions
on overall coverage & intensity this evening and probably
dependent on outflow and boundary interactions. Small chances of
precip may persist overnight as some weak upper disturbances track
into, or near, the region in the nnw flow aloft. Outside of any
convection, VFR conditions and light winds should persist. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with seas 2 to 3 feet are expected
to prevail through late next week. There will be a daily risk of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of
the upcoming week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 100 75 101 / 20 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 80 99 78 98 / 40 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 81 91 / 30 30 20 30
July 2023
It looks spotty. I hope some of us get lucky.
Tomorrow afternoon looks decent south of I-10 between 2-5PM per the 18z HRRR.
Popcorn along the FROPA. Wish we were getting some of what our Cajun cousins are getting right now.
Rains sweeping through LA. Meanwhile, cells are starting to arise north of Houston, while the sea-breeze has just entered 610 Loop.
Will it be our turn for once?
Will it be our turn for once?
Hallelujah!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
So close….
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 405
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Hmm
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We're on the other side of the front, but missed the rain. There's a NW wind around 10-15 mph and yet we are still over 90°F!
Of course - the rain has now been taken out of the forecast.
Congrats to those receiving rain this evening in HOU. A 40% chance of rain tomorrow there.
Of course - the rain has now been taken out of the forecast.
Congrats to those receiving rain this evening in HOU. A 40% chance of rain tomorrow there.
Galveston was the big winner with nearly 2 inches of rain.
Hopefully other areas can catch up this Sunday through the coming week.
Hopefully other areas can catch up this Sunday through the coming week.
Not. A. Drop.
It's over. Our only chance of rain now is tropical development along the front, currently positioned in the Gulf and cranking out showers.
and it would still have to retrograde toward us...
and it would still have to retrograde toward us...
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Good news: we'll be in the NW flow on the edge of the ridge, generating s/w's
Bad news: Then Saharan dust spoils the party beginning Tuesday.
We might as well declare ourselves a desert in CLL and just plant cactii.
Bad news: Then Saharan dust spoils the party beginning Tuesday.
We might as well declare ourselves a desert in CLL and just plant cactii.
The HRRR shows storms breaking out this afternoon. Over for your area, not for me.
I don't buy the whole 50% chance of thunderstorms this afternoon at all. It does not look like we are going to get anything based on cloud cover.
If you want storms to break out mid to late afternoon and have any sort of intensity, then you don’t want a lot of cloud cover right now.
I keep thinking…
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4305
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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But isnt the front too far off shore for any storms to develop here locally? Regardless ill be keeping an eye on the gulf, all that convection over 90+ degree water and light shear , i dont trust it