June 2022

[Cromagnum]

That Icon run looks wonderful. Brazoria County would love that.

[Stratton20]

12z CMC also gets very close to closing off a low but is further south with the low and tracks into south texas

[DoctorMu]

Ridging weakens across the models beginning Monday or moves south. Hopefully, that means a more SE-like 20-30% chance of rain every day. We'll see.

[captainbarbossa19]

It will be interesting what the Euro shows. There is definitely increasing model support for an area of low pressure.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro has a slightly stronger low compared to its 00z run, models are not far from developing this into a weak system

[captainbarbossa19]

Aside from the low next week, we will probably need to keep an eye on the system expected to develop in the Caribbean. Ensembles show wide variation on the course of the potential storm. Some show it moving NW towards the Gulf eventually.

[Cpv17]

Aside from the low next week, we will probably need to keep an eye on the system expected to develop in the Caribbean. Ensembles show wide variation on the course of the potential storm. Some show it moving NW towards the Gulf eventually.

I think the most likely outcome right now would be for it to just crash into CA unless it really starts to strengthen and the ridge backs off a bit. It’ll be interesting to watch for sure.

[captainbarbossa19]

Aside from the low next week, we will probably need to keep an eye on the system expected to develop in the Caribbean. Ensembles show wide variation on the course of the potential storm. Some show it moving NW towards the Gulf eventually.

I think the most likely outcome right now would be for it to just crash into CA unless it really starts to strengthen and the ridge backs off a bit. It’ll be interesting to watch for sure.

Yeah that is more likely simply due to climatology, but EPS shows quite a few members tracking into the Gulf.

[Stratton20]

While chances are fairly low, FWIW the 12z EPS guidance does have a 30% chance of a depression forming off the Texas coast next week, we will see

[DoctorMu]

While chances are fairly low, FWIW the 12z EPS guidance does have a 30% chance of a depression forming off the Texas coast next week, we will see

That's a surprisingly high probability in the eastern Caribbean for this time of year.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu Agreed, 18z GFS goes absolutely crazy with the wave after it gets into the eastern caribbean , definitely one to watch, and definitely not a good sign on what may come down the road in the tropics

[Cpv17]

We now have invest 94L out in the MDR.

[walsean1]

DoctorMu Agreed, 18z GFS goes absolutely crazy with the wave after it gets into the eastern caribbean , definitely one to watch, and definitely not a good sign on what may come down the road in the tropics

As hot as the gulf waters are, it only take 1 strong landfall Hurricane to make it a bad year

[Stratton20]

00z ICON still develops a weak tropical storm next week FWIW, makes landfall around galveston

[don]

The 0Z GFS also tries to spin up the system before it moves inland.

[Stratton20]

Don yup and the GFS has a pretty Hefty bullseye of 7-10 inches along the coast from this run, will definitely have to watch and see if any development occurs as that could easily lead to rain fall totals going up with a more organized system

[captainbarbossa19]

Don yup and the GFS has a pretty Hefty bullseye of 7-10 inches along the coast from this run, will definitely have to watch and see if any development occurs as that could easily lead to rain fall totals going up with a more organized system

Yep. Watch this be a major rain event because we have been so dry the past few months.

[djmike]

Here we go…. Stay hydrated and stay cool! Help out the elderly or neighbor if needing assistance in this weekend’s extreme heat. Stay safe everyone!

[Stratton20]

06z GFS is still really close to closing off a Low FWIW

[don]

HGX mentions the vorticity and surface trough in there discussion this morning.

Weather pattern begins to change Sunday night into the upcoming
week as ridging aloft weakens. In fact, a reinforcing surge of
Gulf moisture will move through the region with PWATs increasing
into the 2.0 to 2.2 inch range by Monday. Additionally, a weak sfc
boundary is progged to move through Southeast TX while some mid-
level vort maxes ride the southeastern edge of the upper-level
ridge. Sufficient forcing aloft, deep convergence and moisture
will result in showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the
boundary. It won`t be a complete washout, but at least, a relief
from the heat. The aforementioned front retreats and becomes
quasi-stationary over the Gulf waters after Tuesday. With abundant
moisture and low-level convergence this will be the main focus
for rain/storm chances through most of the week. Have kept 20 to
45 of PoPs through the week with highest chances Monday and
Tuesday.