Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

Wtf 00z GFS next monday-tuesday… Crazy thing is it has pretty good ensemble support….

[Thundersleet]

As in good computer model agreement to back it up, Stratton20?

[Stratton20]

Euro has a rain/snow mix for some far sw se texas counties, but the operational models for the most part dont agree with their ensembles , the eps is by far the most “ aggressive with snow potential here “ , most likely scenario is the snow falls out in west texas, id only give about a 5% chance that we see any snowflakes here, im not getting my hopes up, just found it interesting that esnembles are aggressive on march snow in texas, plus even if we do see anything the temperatures are going to be so marginal that any snowflake will melt on contact, no accumulations

[don]

The latest snowfall on record for central Texas and northern potions of SE Texas was April 7, 2007 when 1-4 inches of snow accumulated.I remember that day well.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The latest snowfall on record for central Texas and northern potions of SE Texas was April 7, 2007 when 1-4 inches of snow accumulated.I remember that day well.

My hometown got 5 inches that day.

[Stratton20]

Wow April 7th? Thats nuts, i knew its possible to get snow this far south in march but april? That must have been one heck of a dynamic system to produce snow, also some of the GEFS members do suggest maybe some flurries make it into our region, though the EPS is far more aggressive with that idea

[Iceresistance]

Looks like that Far West Texas is going to get the snow

[Stratton20]

Can we skip to next winter please? Not looking forward to the next 5 months of hell like weather haha

[Stratton20]

Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw

[Iceresistance]

Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw

And more Supercells for me...

[Cpv17]

Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw

I noticed yesterday the models were dry for us and the CPC forecast was wet for us. Then today the models turned wetter and the CPC forecast turned drier. Makes zero sense

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 i figure it most be the ensembles they are looking at, definitely is head scratching though, though intriguing to see the euro starts to hint at a cut off upper low at the end of its run, we know what those can do
I also think the CPC has trended drier simply because they want to see if the global models are going to consistently be wet like todays runs or if they are going to back off to a more dry solution

[Stratton20]

12z Euro is very active! Wow

[DoctorMu]

Both the Euro and GFS are trending much wetter in the medium/long range fwiw

I noticed yesterday the models were dry for us and the CPC forecast was wet for us. Then today the models turned wetter and the CPC forecast turned drier. Makes zero sense

Welcome to long-term models.

I have a weather ouija board as well.

[Stratton20]

00z GFS next 10 days, definitely has trended wetter, good soaking rains for many

[Stratton20]

Interesting to see the GFS is trying to develop what may be a cut off upper low out in the desert SW in the medium range, that could make things interesting going forward

[Cpv17]

Mid to late first week of May is looking pretty interesting, for now anyway.

[Stratton20]

12z CMC sees a cut off upper low slowly moving east across the desert southwest, first week of may looks pretty wet

[Stratton20]

00z Euro drags a front in here next week and stalls it out, chance of daily thunderstorms after the 4th and beyond

[DoctorMu]

May 10-17. Looks like a major low blasting across the Midwest with The Last FROPA of the season digging hard and lifting some hot, humid air: EFS, GEFS, GEPS Ensembles have all bought into mega rain.