January 2022

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 yeah but the euro trended towards the GFS in this run, thats not good

[Kingwood36]

Kingwood36 yeah but the euro trended towards the GFS in this run, thats not good

It's just 1 run man...if it happens it happens if not then oh well..no need to get all upset about it..it's just weather lol

[Stratton20]

Not upset lol just disappointed

[Kingwood36]

No need to be..it hasn't happend yet lol

[walsean1]

It is supposed to be colder Thursday and Friday but I can’t see any winter storm setup happening since it is now only 5 days away. Remember last year when that storm happened, there was more confidence in model support with the Arctic temperatures and precipitation a couple of week out agreed with by Pro TV Mets and NWS. We have heard nothing from either about any of this other that a few models.

[Kingwood36]

It is supposed to be colder Thursday and Friday but I can’t see any winter storm setup happening since it is now only 5 days away. Remember last year when that storm happened, there was more confidence in model support with the Arctic temperatures and precipitation a couple of week out agreed with by Pro TV Mets and NWS. We have heard nothing from either about any of this other that a few models.

You won't hear about it till about Wednesday if it's happening..tv mets are very conservative about saying winter weather here 5 days out

[Stratton20]

I believe they arent talking about it because of how much uncertainty their is in the models right now , gfs and euro no wintry precip, CMC with some wintry weather and the GEFS with a full on winter storm, id say thats a pretty good deal of uncertainty lol, once we get within 3 days of this “ potential event” the mesoscale models will be crucial

[DoctorMu]

The 12z Euro dropped any sort of wintry weather, and just like that are hopes are beginning to decrease, what a joke

You loose hope wayyyyy to soon..one bad model run and bam you give up..have faith my man

The 0z run is the Euro run to pay attention to. The 12z Euro had ADHD during hurricane season.

The 12z Euro was flip-flopping on the cold a week out last Feb.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu good point and plus the ensembles are still very consistent on a winter storm, i just dont get how the ensembles can be ao consistent while the operational GFS and Euro models dont know what to show lol

[DoctorMu]

I did want to point out that 6 days out last Feb, the Euro was still in disarray and Srain posted Smoky Mountain snow pictures. Coincidence? You decide.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu that’s interesting the euro does go out 5 -6 days on the 18z rubn on weather bell so we will see if it picks back up on this potential winter storm setup

[Kingwood36]

Hmmmm

[Stratton20]

18z GFS back on board with a winter storm

[Kingwood36]

18z GFS back on board with a winter storm

Seeeeeeeeee and all that doom and gloom lol relax and take a deeeeeeeep breath lol

[don]

Once again the 18Z GFS gets close to a winterstorm here in SE Texas with temps in the 30s with plenty of moisture overrunning at the same time.
It seems whats giving the models a hard time is how the piece of energy sitting over the Baja interacts with northern stream energy moving in from the northwest.What the GFS is doing is phasing the northern stream system with the southern stream (basically the two systems consolidate into one system, and ejects over the state.Causing a gulf low to develop over the weekend.This setup is great for a significant winter storm across the state. But will there be enough cold air? is the question,especially since such setups will produce a warm nose over us near the gulf.Until models are on the same page and show consistency between runs its hard to know if we will have a storm or not this week.Models should start to converge on a solution over the next 48 hours.
I will say this though, the GFS showing the setup for a winter storm within 5 days is a good sign, but without consistency and more model support we cant get excited yet.

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS is basically locked in

[Kingwood36]

18z GEFS is basically locked in

Damn you gotta give the GEFS some credit . It has been locked in on this outcome for a while now

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 yep its been showing this outcome for the past 3-4 days, that is some really good consistency

[Iceresistance]

57 is saying that he's making sure that the NASA Hypersonic Jet is fueled up for him to evacuate to Australia.

[Kingwood36]

57 is saying that he's making sure that the NASA Hypersonic Jet is fueled up for him to evacuate to Australia.

Good. Maybe he will stay there till march