August 2020:

[Belmer]

Wasn't expecting that

I was....called it yesterday. Nothing stays tropical storm in August anymore once it reaches the Gulf....wouldnt be surprised to see the number 2 pop up....

Im not surprised about the hurricane forecast I just wasn't expecting them to pull the trigger on that this soon.

I think the emphasis is the conditions/environment will be conducive more for a hurricane rather than a TS. Stewart is known to be a bit more bullish on his forecast which I don't necessary think is a bad thing, especially in this case. If this were indeed to turn into a bigger storm than forecasted, those in it's path will only have 3-4 days to prepare. While that should give people plenty of time to head to the store and get their orders together, the weekend is upon us and that can sometimes lose people's views/interest with those having events and plans and not really tuned into TV for updates. This will sneak up on people much quicker with impacts beginning to be felt by Monday along SETX.

[Rip76]

Stewart has always been solid.

[DoctorMu]

The NHC is calling for two hurricanes in the Gulf at the same time come Monday/Tuesday. Try wrapping your brain around that

Exactly what I've been afraid of all week. The Gulf is steaming at incubator temperature. We all know how fast Harvey bombed out.

Any concern Mets about TD14 slowing down or stalling if it hits the Texas coast?

[Scott747]

Both hurricane models are significantly stronger and so far are tracking near the projected path.

[Scott747]

0z HMON which has been the far eastern outlier comes in just to the w of Vermilion Bay as a cat 2.

[DoctorMu]

NAVGEM is sticking to its guns. Cat 2-3 landing near Rockport...

[Rip76]

NAVGEM is sticking to its guns. Cat 2-3 landing near Rockport...

Yikes.

[don]

0z EURO has a landfall around Galveston as a tropical storm.

[DoctorMu]

Euro weakens as it comes ashore at Freeport.

[Andrew]

Well, NHC now has the storm approaching the Upper Texas Coast as a hurricane.

[unome]

this is wrong - the size of the cone has absolutely nothing to do with the level of certainty or uncertainty... it is pre-determined size based on historic level of error in the past years' forecasts...sigh... and they wonder why the avg. person is confused... get rid of the damned cone

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 647 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020/...

.LONG TERM AND TROPICAL... [Friday Night through Thursday]

Initially Friday night light southerly flow will be in place with an
increase in moisture in the lower levels and what could be a
scattering of showers and thunderstorms to the west and northwest of
the area that could be drifting southeastward and probably
weakening. Saturday more hot weather out ahead of TD-14. Much of the
forecast hinges on the track and intensity of the system. For now
expect the far outer circulation of the system to spread into the
coastal waters throughout the day Sunday and SE Texas to be
mainly dry Sunday. Monday the west or northwestern bands could be
spreading into the coastal areas and then inland during the day.
The cone associated with TD-14 is large and uncertainty on the
track/intensity remains high. So for now as the forecast here goes
will be showing a marked increase in rain chances Monday
afternoon through Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds possible at
the coast in this time frame with the most likely time at the
coast around noon Monday though this is subject to change.

45

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center surface chart suggests 2 Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf next week. Let that sink in a moment. Last time that happened was 1933.

[unome]

The Weather Prediction Center surface chart suggests 2 Tropical Cyclones in the Gulf next week. Let that sink in a moment. Last time that happened was 1933.

Klotzbach posted the Daily Weather Map - pretty cool https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 12/photo/1

ftp://ftp.library.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htd ... 330905.pdf

animated week of Aug 31 - Sept th https://imgur.com/IQdTTVJ (credit to Chris Hollis of TropicalAtlantic.com / Hollis innovations)

[Cpv17]

If the projected path by the NHC verifies a lot of the rain will be in Louisiana.

[srainhoutx]

RECON suggests that TD 14 continues to struggle and remains disorganized. Same goes for TD 13 at this time. Honestly I have little confidence in the various computer schemes this morning. Fact is 14 and 13 are not strengthening as had been expected and that may well have significant impacts on both track and certainly intensity guidance. That said do NOT let your guard down. We'll have the weekend to prepare as if a Hurricane arrives Monday night into Tuesday.

[srainhoutx]

TD 13 now Tropical Storm Laura. NOAA Recon finds center well South of the official track. That means more interaction with the mountainous terrain of the PR and Hispaniola.

[Kingwood36]

So we won't have a good handle on the track till atleast Sunday once it gets into the gulf... swings to the east and west will continue

[Texaspirate11]

Oh man it look like it shifted a bit east today guess we may be on the high and dry side.

[Rip76]

Oh man it look like it shifted a bit east today guess we may be on the high and dry side.

Yeah.

[Kingwood36]

Oh man it look like it shifted a bit east today guess we may be on the high and dry side.

Yeah.

It will change again and again