July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Rip76]

Thank you sir. I’ll try and hang in.

[Scott747]

HMON is already further s and w early on.

[Kingwood36]

HMON is already further s and w early on.

That cant be a good thing

[Scott747]

HMON is already further s and w early on.

That cant be a good thing

So far it's not that much. Wouldn't take long to correct to 18z.

[Scott747]

At hr39 the HWRF is slight further s and w along with being more organized than 18z.

[Kingwood36]

So the west trend continues

[Kingwood36]

So the west trend continues..i heard somewhere that a stronger system would tend to go more west then east correct?

[Scott747]

HMON turns towards la and is nearing landfall a little further w than 18z. Not by much.

[Scott747]

Hr 75 on the HMON as it nears the coast it bends back to the without making landfall yet.

[Scott747]

HMON finally makes landfall hr81. Decent shift w but not dramatically.

[Scott747]

0z HWRF hits a wall at hr 75 and turns due n. May make landfall slightly to the e compared to the 18z run.

[Scott747]

0z euro is much further w.

[Andrew]

Wow, UKMET was quite the run. ECMWF is showing not nearly as deep of a trough over the northeast compared to the last couple of runs. Also, the initialized midlevel vorticity is already a lot further west than anticipated. It shows we still need to monitor this system and so does everyone else along the northern gulf coast.

[Scott747]

0z euro makes landfall somewhere between the border and Holly Beach.

[Andrew]

Euro landfall around border/lake charles.

[stormlover]

Euro ensembles shift way west

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 0-240.html

[Scott747]

Um. Yeah.

That's an off the chart kinda shift.

[sau27]

0z Euro Ensemble spread

[sau27]

0z Euro Ensemble spread

I guess you could call it a spaghetti western.

I’m sorry it’s 4 am and I couldn’t resist.

[Scott747]

Well sure enough the two things that needed to happen to make this a potential concern for our immediate area appear may just be happening.

The idea of an about face on the trough is showing up on the overnight runs and the area a little further down by Tampa looks interesting.

Long day ahead.