General Tropical Discussion Thread

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292336
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI
FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 850
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Andrew]

Maybe it is a little too early to say we are completely out of the woods here, especially with all the activity out there. It only takes good timing and you have a storm on your doorstep.

[unome]

this is a good read on TX hurricane history, albeit a bit long http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

[srainhoutx]

What a crazy looking mess in the Tropics...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302345
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
TROPICAL WAVES...EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Andrew]

What a crazy looking mess in the Tropics...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302345
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
TROPICAL WAVES...EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Not to mention the size of both of these areas. I personally don't see much formation from either of these.

[srainhoutx]

I'd keep an eye on the Atlantic disturbance for the Tropical Trackers. The last comment from PREDICT Team of the season suggested a further E vort being the dominate and IR Imagery seems to prove that is correct...

[Ptarmigan]

The tropics is a real mess. Those clouds could easily spawn multiple storms. I think 19 storms is possible.

[Ptarmigan]

The dry air is like RAID for tropical cyclones.

[srainhoutx]

Tropics are somewhat quiet, but there may just be something brewing the SW Caribbean in the next few days if guidance is correct...

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS continues to show a strong system in the NW Caribbean @ hour 192 before heading NE...

[srainhoutx]

The energy S of DR is getting my attention this morning...

[srainhoutx]

HPC is thinking the SW Caribbean will need to be watched as we approach the weekend...

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
WELL SEAWARD OVER TEH NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHWEST
CARRIBEAN WITH GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING WITH A SLOW WEST
TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT TO OFF THE HONDURAS COAST BY DAYS 7
WEDNESDAY. SEE NHC DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES.

[srainhoutx]

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN HONDURAS AND JAMAICA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...
IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS suggests Richard will form in the not too distant future in the SW Caribbean...

[srainhoutx]

Yikes...

[srainhoutx]

Interesting...and so soon...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AFTERWARDS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES LITTLE.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is back again with a powerful Hurricane in the NW Caribbean...

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian also depicts a strong Hurricane near Jamaica...

[srainhoutx]

HPC in Final Extended Update...

CHI STANDARDIZED ANOMALY CHARTS OF H200 AND H850 VELOCITY
POTENTIALS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAVORABLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
CONDITION IS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH NEWER OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
CMC/UKMET/NOGAPS AND GFS/GSF ENS MEAN SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THIS REGION LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND. HPC DEPICTION
KEPT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AT THIS TIME. THSI REGION WILL NEED
TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS/OUTLOOKS.

[srainhoutx]

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.