I think this was the time we got ice instead of snow..all snow next time though. I don't wanna deal with ice. Ready for more arctic cold...
Wasn't this the year that we thought all the snow was coming our way and something happened with the pattern and jet stream? I remember my office decided to close and we really didn't have much in the way of ice or snow.
Here's a Houston (IAH) meteogram for Christmas week. Note that almost all of the precip is pre-frontal - in the warm air. Those model sites show all precip that fell in the PAST 12 hours, not at the valid time of the graphic which indicates sub-freezing air.
wxman57 wrote:Here's a Houston (IAH) meteogram for Christmas week. Note that almost all of the precip is pre-frontal - in the warm air. Those model sites show all precip that fell in the PAST 12 hours, not at the valid time of the graphic which indicates sub-freezing air.]
Yes, from the 364-hour loop it appeared that the precip was gone from everywhere except right along the coast by the time the column cooled enough for pure snow (much like the snow miracle... the one where we were actually too far north for snow up in Conroe ) That's why I ran the meteogram above for GLS, and (tell me if I'm reading it wrong) it sure looks like they will still be getting moisture falling well after frontal passage.
meteogram for Christmas week. Note that almost all of the precip is pre-frontal - in the warm air. Those model sites show all precip that fell in the PAST 12 hours, not at the valid time of the graphic which indicates sub-freezing air.
That is quite a meteogram. Looks like temps and DP are dropping off the charts for Christmas day. That would be something to see...dry or wet. Would assume those numbers will moderate quite a bit before that time arrives...but very interesting to say the least.
Ed, I don't believe that anyone takes any long range precip forecast too seriously. What does raise an eyebrow is the synoptic pattern of very high heights near the Gulf of Alaska and the continuation of a -EPO regime. If you recall, we started seeing the signals rather clearly a couple of weeks prior to Thanksgiving and pondered if the pattern would continue to reload after a brief relaxation. So far it does appear that this pattern will not change anytime too soon and may well continue in January. We will see.
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The day 10+ Global ensembles continue to advertise yet another Arctic Outbreak plunging deep into our Region with temperature departures in -20/-30 F range versus climatology just prior to the Christmas Holiday period.
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Next shot of arctic air will arrive late today helping to keep the cold air mass that has been in place for almost a week anchored over the region.
Clouds have increased overnight as warm southerly flow has started to overrun the cold dome at the surface. The cloud deck helped to prevent a widespread freeze across the area this morning with only our northern counties falling to or below freezing. Third surge of arctic air will cross the region late today into tonight with increasing northerly winds and a maintaining of below normal temperatures through the end of the week. This will result in lows in the 30’s and 40’s and highs in the 50’s.
Next storm system will approach and cross the region Friday-Saturday. Clouds will thicken and lower during the day on Thursday as moisture will begin to increase. Arctic high pressure dome will finally start to push eastward by Friday allowing winds to turn around to the SE after being out of the north for over week. This should allow some low level moisture to return to the area, but the Gulf has been scoured by the recent arctic outbreak and suspect moisture return will be slow and models may be overdoing the amount of moisture for Friday. Old arctic boundary over the Gulf will begin to return northward as a warm front, but do not think the boundary will get much inland if at all keeping most of the area in the cold sector. Increasing large scale ascent ahead of the incoming trough will promote scattered light rains on Friday becoming more widespread on Friday night with widespread fog/drizzle/light rain expected. Temperatures will be in the 50’s so no P-type concerns.
Next cold front sweeps across the area Saturday morning with winds shifting back to the north and increasing. Should see skies clear out on Saturday behind this front by the afternoon and this will allow for low temperatures on Sunday AM to fall back into the low to mid 30’s. Slow warm up starting late in the weekend under mainly clear skies…but temperatures still remaining below normal for this time of year.
Very Long Range (Christmas Week):
Both the GFS and ECMWF have been indicating the formation of significant ridging from the Gulf of Alaska to northern Russia by the end of next week. Extremely warm water over the northern Pacific Ocean (south of the Gulf of Alaska) is helping to support the formation of these intense ridges in this area and the resultant transport of cold arctic air southward into the US. In fact the forecasted pattern and the anomalies being shown have similarities to 1989, 1983, and 1899 which all resulted in brutal arctic outbreaks into the US. Model guidance continues to indicate the potential for such an outbreak before/near Christmas, but has not been very consistent on how much cold air comes southward, but something to watch for sure.
Climate:
After a warm start to the month with a high temperature of 81 on the 4th, the temperature at BUSH IAH did not reach 50 degrees between Dec 6 and yesterday. After having high temperatures above 70 degrees for the first 5 days of the month, the recent cold outbreak has wiped out the warm anomaly and we are currently sitting at a monthly average temperatures of 54.7 degrees which is 1.6 degrees below normal. The high on the 7th of 38 shattered the previous record high minimum of 45 degrees from 1909 (a 104 year old record). In fact all major climate sites (Galveston, Hobby, IAH, and College Station) all set new record high minimums on Dec 7th. College Stations also spent 41 consecutive hours below freezing during this event.
After having a high of 79 on Dec 4th, Dallas had a high temperature below 35 degrees for 4 days straight. The average December temperature for Dallas is currently a frigid 41.7 degrees or 7.3 degrees below normal.
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I just had the chance to listen to a briefing from wxman57’s long range Winter Weather forecaster. Let’s just say that it may get colder…a lot colder and stormier as we head toward the Christmas into early January time frame...
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12Z GFS has teens for Houston on the 23rd, but nothing close to what happened in 1983 or 1989. Front arrives on Saturday the 21st and temp drops to low 20s Sunday. Precip ends as the temperature falls to near freezing. But the GFS has a disturbance moving across the cold air on the 26th-27th, indicating about 1/2" of liquid equivalent with temps in the 20s here. Of course, this is 15 days out and the GFS moved the frozen precip date back again.
How do you know, Ed? While seemingly unlikely ... all of the teleconnection signals and ensemble models say it IS possible. I wouldn't be so dismissive as this is far from wishcasting.
Austin has a similar looking meteogram per the 12z GFS with very cold temps and several bouts of wintry "mischief."
) That's why I ran the meteogram above for GLS, and (tell me if I'm reading it wrong) it sure looks like they will still be getting moisture falling well after frontal passage.
