Wx Infinity Forums

Jeff, I noticed today that the short range meso guidance has been rather insistent on moving a vort max inland along Galveston/Brazoria Counties. This may bode well for those along and S of the I-10 Corridor.

For us in Northeast Harris County, it will be widely hit and miss?

srainhoutx wrote:Jeff, I noticed today that the short range meso guidance has been rather insistent on moving a vort max inland along Galveston/Brazoria Counties. This may bode well for those along and S of the I-10 Corridor.

It should...just depends on if the short range guidance has the right location and the convection fires close tot he coast and not 50 miles offshore.

N Gulf is just full of convection this evening....but it is almost all well offshore. Will be interesting to see what happens with all this moisture over the next few days. With high pressure building southward it could push the moisture/trough axis deeper into the Gulf. Not sure the models are handling what is going on out there very well.

For a tropical disturbance so close to us, these total amounts of precip today is just plain embarrassing! This could have been a really good start to reducing our drought, but once again, we get burned! I'm really starting to think SETX has some kind of dome over us. I cant remember the last time we had a solid day of just rain. Or a front that moves through with a huge squall line of just thick red solid line of heavy heavy rain! Praying tonight and tomorrow will be a bit more generous with this disturbance and its moisture, but I am certainly not holding my breath!

tireman4 wrote:For us in Northeast Harris County, it will be widely hit and miss?

Looks that way...but I think NE Harris has a better chance than say Waller County...tend to get a little more activity up into E and NE Harris in these type of patterns. Main action will be from Winnie to Pearland to Wharton southward.

Winds are definitely picking up here.

Ribeye steaks and tropical clouds on one side, sun shining to the west.
Awesome.

What about the Beaumont area JEFF? Can we expect an increase in showers tonight as well?

Jeff,

Thanks so much for all you do on this board. We appreciate it. One last question, what is your long range forecasts telling you? Any fronts coming in September or just climo?

HRRR is very wet tonight starting around midnight from GLS to Sugar Land to Wharton. TX Tech is also showing a good bit of activity but it is displaced a little more to the north. Think the HRRR is on the correct line of thinking with its QPF placement. Could get some decent training if it verifies over Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, and Wharton Counties as it is showing some good banding moving toward the coast.

djmike wrote:What about the Beaumont area JEFF? Can we expect an increase in showers tonight as well?

Decent shot for some quick moving showers (50/50)....but think the best chances will be from Galveston Bay SW toward Matagorda Bay in association with the inland movement of the vort south of Sabine Pass.

tireman4 wrote:Jeff,

Thanks so much for all you do on this board. We appreciate it. One last question, what is your long range forecasts telling you? Any fronts coming in September or just climo?

The temperature trend is downward per climo. Main question is do we get any tropical system in the next 3 weeks before that door closes. Not seeing anything in the guidance, but the pattern at least into the first week of Sept does keep a somewhat easterly upper flow alive with periodic tropical waves....still have troughing on the east coast so if...and it looks like yes we will see deep tropical development...the chances for recurve are there. Do not see any fronts in the long range guidance at this point but no big heat either although the middle to end of this week could push 96-99 in some areas that do not get much rainfall tonight/Monday.

IP blocks?

Anyway, just awesome out here tonight.

Here in Santa Fe we have been getting light shower off and on today, nothing real heavy though...the breeze did pick up for a little bit earlier and it sure was nice!! I noticed the clouds today and they looked so weird, but in a pretty way if that even makes sense I sure did appreciate the cloud cover today, kept the temps in check it was so nice!!!

I do wonder how much more rain my area can expect....

No IP's were blocked and no one was banned. The reason that Arizona and the SW is getting rainfall is due to Tropical Depression IVO moving N along the Baja in the EPAC. We see that anytime abundant tropical moisture streams inland along the Baja and SW United States.

Thank you for that explanation Srain. It's just painful to look at that California radar and see the Mojave desert getting slammed with storms while Houston sits on an invisible dome.

Three good showers here in 77089.

Thick air out here tonight.

jeff wrote:HRRR is very wet tonight starting around midnight from GLS to Sugar Land to Wharton. TX Tech is also showing a good bit of activity but it is displaced a little more to the north. Think the HRRR is on the correct line of thinking with its QPF placement. Could get some decent training if it verifies over Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, and Wharton Counties as it is showing some good banding moving toward the coast.

Usually rain from tropical moisture are nocturnal as they happen at night.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

Ptarmigan wrote:

jeff wrote:HRRR is very wet tonight starting around midnight from GLS to Sugar Land to Wharton. TX Tech is also showing a good bit of activity but it is displaced a little more to the north. Think the HRRR is on the correct line of thinking with its QPF placement. Could get some decent training if it verifies over Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, and Wharton Counties as it is showing some good banding moving toward the coast.

Usually rain from tropical moisture are nocturnal as they happen at night.

Most nocturnal things happen at night.

Some people may not know what nocturnal means.

Anyways, I remember the October 1994 Flood Event coming from tropical moisture. Most of the rain fell at night.

Looks like a pretty decent slug of moisture heading up I-45 in about 30 min. or so..

I have a bad feeling. I am looking at the radar. And it just looks like we are about to be screwed out of the "wetter" pattern