Re: February-Major Winter Storm Sunday-Tuesday For TX/OK/AR/
Posted: Sun Feb 24, 2013 4:07 pm
Excellent discussion from Lubbock this afternoon:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
358 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND PUSH TOWARD WEST TEXAS...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING
PLAINS.
THIS EVENING...DUAL THREATS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
BEGIN TO FALL AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE SHORTER
FUSED OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILES...AND IMPRESSIVE OMEGA
VALUES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE. KEPT CHANCES PULLED WEST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS WITH INITIALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE. FARTHER NORTHWEST...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A MEMPHIS TO
JUSTICEBURG LINE SEEING ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
EAST WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
POLAR FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA BY AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING SURFACE LOW.
MONDAY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY MORNING
IN THE 12-18Z WINDOW. THIS WILL BE THE TIME WHEN THE H50 LOW
TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS LOW LOOKS TO CUT THROUGH THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES ON ITS NORTHWEST SIDE
IN VICINITY OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS
ABUNDANT LIFT HERE WHERE A TROWAL AXIS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW
ENCOMPASSING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. IN ADDITION...EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE 12 HOUR H50
HEIGHT FALLS OF NEAR 200 METERS WILL TAKE PLACE BY AROUND
12Z...FURTHER OWING TO THE SYSTEM/S INTENSITY.
WITH THE CONTINUED TRENDING FOR THE LOW TO MOVE FARTHER AND FARTHER
SOUTH...HAVE INCLUDED THE TOP THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES IN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM SUNDAY EVENING TO 6 PM MONDAY EVENING.
BLOWING SNOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AS WINDS RAMP UP WITH PASSAGE OF THE POLAR FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...AS WINDS OF UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH COMBINE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 60 MPH AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 6
INCHES AND ABOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...TO 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS.
THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ALSO SEEMS TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR YOAKUM
TO STONEWALL COUNTIES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT HERE WILL BE IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH BALLPARK. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
HERE AS WELL...BUT WILL JUST MENTION THIS IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY PRODUCT TO AVOID MULTIPLE HEADLINES AND CONFUSION.
OVERALL...EXPECT A RAW DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...OVERCAST
SKIES...AND BLOWING SNOW.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
358 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND PUSH TOWARD WEST TEXAS...SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING
PLAINS.
THIS EVENING...DUAL THREATS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
BEGIN TO FALL AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE SHORTER
FUSED OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILES...AND IMPRESSIVE OMEGA
VALUES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A PACIFIC
FRONT/DRYLINE. KEPT CHANCES PULLED WEST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS WITH INITIALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE. FARTHER NORTHWEST...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A MEMPHIS TO
JUSTICEBURG LINE SEEING ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
EAST WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
POLAR FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA BY AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD
MOVING SURFACE LOW.
MONDAY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY MORNING
IN THE 12-18Z WINDOW. THIS WILL BE THE TIME WHEN THE H50 LOW
TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS LOW LOOKS TO CUT THROUGH THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES ON ITS NORTHWEST SIDE
IN VICINITY OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS
ABUNDANT LIFT HERE WHERE A TROWAL AXIS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW
ENCOMPASSING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. IN ADDITION...EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE 12 HOUR H50
HEIGHT FALLS OF NEAR 200 METERS WILL TAKE PLACE BY AROUND
12Z...FURTHER OWING TO THE SYSTEM/S INTENSITY.
WITH THE CONTINUED TRENDING FOR THE LOW TO MOVE FARTHER AND FARTHER
SOUTH...HAVE INCLUDED THE TOP THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES IN THE BLIZZARD
WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM SUNDAY EVENING TO 6 PM MONDAY EVENING.
BLOWING SNOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AS WINDS RAMP UP WITH PASSAGE OF THE POLAR FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE BLIZZARD
WARNING...AS WINDS OF UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH COMBINE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 60 MPH AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 6
INCHES AND ABOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...TO 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS.
THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ALSO SEEMS TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR YOAKUM
TO STONEWALL COUNTIES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT HERE WILL BE IN THE 1 TO
3 INCH BALLPARK. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
HERE AS WELL...BUT WILL JUST MENTION THIS IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY PRODUCT TO AVOID MULTIPLE HEADLINES AND CONFUSION.
OVERALL...EXPECT A RAW DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...OVERCAST
SKIES...AND BLOWING SNOW.