Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 7:19 pm
18z GFS for KCLL shows a sounding even more impressive than previous runs!
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March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers
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Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 7:21 pm
Lovely Andrew...Weather Radio will be on tonight....Sigh..
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 7:23 pm
From the NWS San Antonio/Austin Facebook Page.....
Here is what we are expecting for this event as we move forward. We will see a transition over the next few hours going from discrete cells into more of a line. This will shift the severe threat more towards damaging wind and isolated short lived tornadoes. Then after midnight and towards early Tuesday morning, will see the line of storms along the front slowing over the I-35 corridor, which will be the highest threat period for heavy rain/flash flooding. Please use caution tomorrow morning on the morning commute.
Here is what we are expecting for this event as we move forward. We will see a transition over the next few hours going from discrete cells into more of a line. This will shift the severe threat more towards damaging wind and isolated short lived tornadoes. Then after midnight and towards early Tuesday morning, will see the line of storms along the front slowing over the I-35 corridor, which will be the highest threat period for heavy rain/flash flooding. Please use caution tomorrow morning on the morning commute.
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 7:53 pm
Supercell approaching KSAT along/north of I-35 showing very strong rotation couplet and hook on radar. Tornado is likely with this storm at any moment.
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 7:56 pm
Looks like good rotation.jeff wrote:Supercell approaching KSAT along/north of I-35 showing very strong rotation couplet and hook on radar. Tornado is likely with this storm at any moment.
Also to note when looking at the bigger picture the southern part of the line really looks to be slowing down.
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 8:02 pm
From a few minutes ago:
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 8:04 pm
SPC update:
SPC AC 200059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND NERN TX...SERN AR
AND FAR WRN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO MN...
...CNTRL AND ERN TX...ERN OK...WRN AR AND SRN MO...
NUMEROUS STORMS CURRENTLY STRETCH FROM THE CNTRL RIO GRANDE VALLEY
NEWD INTO ERN OK AND FAR SWRN MO. OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS
BEEN SLOW TO RAMP UP DUE MAINLY TO THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
ORIENTATION BENEATH THE MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...RADAR
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN AREAS OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
ONE AREA IS OVER ERN OK...SWRN MO AND WRN AR. HERE...STORMS HAVE
FORMED IN A CONFLUENCE BAND E OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND RADAR HAS
SHOWN SIGNS OF ROTATION. WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.
TO THE S...OUTFLOW WAS OUTRUNNING NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
METROPLEX...WITH ONLY MODERATE WIND GUSTS. WHILE SEVERE WIND GUSTS
MAY STILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY...THE BEST CHANCE OF
TORNADOES WOULD BE WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE
LINE. ONE SUCH ISOLATED CELL WAS LOCATED OVER NERN TX.
FARTHER S...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING...FROM THE WACO AREA SWWD TOWARD SAN ANTONIO. HERE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ORIENTED A BIT MORE ACROSS THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY
ALLOW STRONG CELLS TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF
SUPERCELLS OR BOWS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
PERHAPS TORNADOES. WITH STRONG FORCING CONTINUING TO COME OUT LATER
THIS EVENING...AND WITH A CONTINUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET...CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.
TO THE S...ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL STORMS EXISTED NEAR THE SAN ANTONIO
AREA. THESE WERE SUPERCELLS...AND WERE ALREADY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
RECENTLY...INCREASED ROTATION WAS NOTED AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE
WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE. CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE LATER
SURGING COLD FRONT...SPREADING NEWD INTO E CNTRL TX TO THE MIDDLE TX
COAST BY MORNING
...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
A LINE OF STORMS FROM NERN IA INTO N CNTRL MN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
RAPIDLY NEWD IN A MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE A COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER HELPS TO WEAKEN THE STORMS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0296.
..JEWELL.. 03/20/2012
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 8:07 pm
Update San Antonio Storm:
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 8:14 pm
NWS San Antonio/Austin Facebook....
Possible tornado near Natalia and I-35. No firm ground truth at this time but have gotten a reports of funnels in the area.
Possible tornado near Natalia and I-35. No firm ground truth at this time but have gotten a reports of funnels in the area.
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 8:28 pm
From NWS San Antonio/Austin...
3 NNW Devine [Medina Co,TX] dept of highways reports TORNADO at 08:20 PM CT: powerlines knocked down at county road 664 and 5710 near devine
3 NNW Devine [Medina Co,TX] dept of highways reports TORNADO at 08:20 PM CT: powerlines knocked down at county road 664 and 5710 near devine
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 8:37 pm
Folks, just to state again.. .keep a watchful eye on this situation. I, for one, will be having my weather radio on....
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 8:38 pm
The funnel/tornado picture Ed just posted...
Folks on the southside of loop 410 needs to seek shelter now
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
833 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TXC013-029-325-200200-
/O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120320T0200Z/
MEDINA TX-BEXAR TX-ATASCOSA TX-
833 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...SOUTHWESTERN BEXAR AND EAST CENTRAL MEDINA
COUNTIES...
AT 827 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A DAMAGING
TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDWAY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CASTROVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS TORNADO HAS
PRODUCED DAMAGE NEAR I-35 AT NATALIA AT 806 PM.
THE TORNADO WILL REACH MIDWAY BY 835 PM...AND NEAR VON ARMY...
MACONA AND MANGUS CORNER ALONG LOOP 1604 BY 845 PM. OTHER LOCATIONS
IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE AND LACKLAND AFB. LARGE HAIL UP TO
GOLFBALL SIZE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TORNADO TRACK.
Folks on the southside of loop 410 needs to seek shelter now
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
833 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
TXC013-029-325-200200-
/O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120320T0200Z/
MEDINA TX-BEXAR TX-ATASCOSA TX-
833 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA...SOUTHWESTERN BEXAR AND EAST CENTRAL MEDINA
COUNTIES...
AT 827 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A DAMAGING
TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MIDWAY...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CASTROVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS TORNADO HAS
PRODUCED DAMAGE NEAR I-35 AT NATALIA AT 806 PM.
THE TORNADO WILL REACH MIDWAY BY 835 PM...AND NEAR VON ARMY...
MACONA AND MANGUS CORNER ALONG LOOP 1604 BY 845 PM. OTHER LOCATIONS
IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE AND LACKLAND AFB. LARGE HAIL UP TO
GOLFBALL SIZE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
TORNADO TRACK.
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 8:42 pm
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 9:55 pm
Uh, I might have to retract my EFO statement from earlier.....
that funnel pic above if it reached ground would be about a EF2 or more just by looking at it. Just put fresh batteries in my weather radio.
that funnel pic above if it reached ground would be about a EF2 or more just by looking at it. Just put fresh batteries in my weather radio.Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 9:56 pm
Are the storms still heading our way? Tornado threats here? Looking at the radar, to me it doesn't look like they are heading our way. Thanks.
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 10:46 pm
I get a feeling for us is going to be more of a heavy rain and flooding event.
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 10:55 pm
Ptarmigan wrote:I get a feeling for us is going to be more of a heavy rain and flooding event.
I agree. SE TX might see some pea size hail and some nasty lightning, but I think the models were a little bit overdone for tonight. We'll see. I believe it will mainly be a flooding issue for the northern parts of TX and Eastern TX.
Here in San Marcos, just cloudy and windy right now. And even with me being this far out west from Houston, I just don't see really anything exciting happening tonight besides heavy rain and flooding. Not really thinking much of anything severe. Two huge powerful cells, one clipping San Antonio earlier this evening, and the other south of San Antonio both had tornado warnings on them, but man, did they die quickly! Yes, this line is getting together and making one solid line, but not too impressive right now besides some nickel size hail falling with the storm right now.
Who knows though? Maybe it'll get poppin more here soon.
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 10:56 pm
That's better than a tornado event.Ptarmigan wrote:I get a feeling for us is going to be more of a heavy rain and flooding event.
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2012 11:28 pm
Yes, but flooding is really nasty with the flood waters.sambucol wrote: That's better than a tornado event.
Re: March 19-20: Moderate Risk Severe WX Central TX/Flood Th
Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2012 12:00 am
lots of mini bow echos are forming????