April Weather Discussion.

[weatherguy425]

Storms re-firing

[wxdata]

Storms re-firing

They may be along the actual front.

[weatherguy425]

There also appears to be a boundary moving NW off of earlier storms in the mix.

[srainhoutx]

Slow moving storms have dumped another inch of rain in NW Harris County.

[weatherguy425]

Tornado Warning

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
654 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

TXC057-190000-
/O.CON.KCRP.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-100419T0000Z/
CALHOUN-
654 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY...

AT 647 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KAMAY...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT
LAVACA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORT LAVACA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 2863 9655 2863 9660 2859 9660 2857 9658
2846 9664 2858 9680 2866 9673 2869 9665
2864 9660 2865 9658 2867 9657 2866 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 285DEG 8KT 2855 9669


Doesn't look impressive at all on radar, maybe a waterspout?

[sleetstorm]

Are any of you getting anything from the rather healthy thunderstorm that is currently and mainly in northern Harris County? Some of it is in the Houston metroplex area too.

[Puzzled1]

yep, had some decent thunder and lightning here in kingwood...its tapering off now though.

[sleetstorm]

A rather healthy small line of thunderstorms seem to be heading toward Baytown even as we speak.

[biggerbyte]

Porter got some good rains today. I hope all of you did as well.

BB

[srainhoutx]

Some concern about capping issues on Thursday, but SPC has our area in the 4-8 day longer range outlook for Friday as the cap breaks down and a rather potent piece of Upper Level energy swings through TX and the Southern Plains...



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT TUE APR 20 2010

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD
INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
PERIOD...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKENING/SHIFTING MORE NEWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY DAY 6 AND BEYOND...BUT AGREEMENT IS
SUFFICIENT DAYS 4-5 /FRI. AND SAT. APR. 24-25/ TO BOOST CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.

IT APPEARS ATTM THAT A WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST DAY 4 /FRI THE 24TH/...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
APPARENT ATTM FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO SSWWD INTO SERN TX. HERE...A
MOIST/UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED...AND WITH FAVORABLE
SHEAR -- INCLUDING MID-LEVEL FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50 KT -- ATOP THE
FRONTAL ZONE...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AN
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY
REGION DAY 5 /SAT. THE 25TH/...WITH A SIMILARLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONT. BOTH DAYS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WHILE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAVORABLY-STRONG SHEAR
ARE ALSO INDICATIVE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL.

COMBINATION OF THE DECREASING MODEL AGREEMENT AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DAY 6 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TURNS MORE NELY
PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A THREAT AREA. NONETHELESS...SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST -- PARTICULARLY E OF THE MS AND S OF THE
OH VALLEYS.

..GOSS.. 04/20/2010

[wxdata]

12z NAM Bufkit soundings show that as suggested by the NWS, there will be a nice cap over the area Friday. However if there's enough forcing, any thunderstorms that bursts through the cap could quickly become 'supercells' Friday afternoon.

[sleetstorm]

I do not ever recall experiencing a Supercell Thunderstorm.

[sleetstorm]

12z NAM Bufkit soundings show that as suggested by the NWS, there will be a nice cap over the area Friday. However if there's enough forcing, any thunderstorms that bursts through the cap could quickly become 'supercells' Friday afternoon.

Southeast Texas could have a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak this friday if all of the components in the atmosphere come together just right, huh, wxdata?

[wxdata]

Southeast Texas could have a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak this friday if all of the components in the atmosphere come together just right, huh, wxdata?

Our ol' friend/nemesis (depending on one's point of view) 'the cap' will once again be holding the aces in this hand of Friday's weather.

[wxdata]

HPC's QPF suggests that the cap may be partially responsible for the greatest rain amounts staying north and east at weeks end (and the fact that most of the main energy stays further north as well.)

[medicalgirl32]

ok everybody i am having a crawfish boil on Saturday outside and we have a band playing! It starts at 4pm. Are we goin to get drenched!!

[sleetstorm]

Southeast Texas could have a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak this friday if all of the components in the atmosphere come together just right, huh, wxdata?

Our ol' friend/nemesis (depending on one's point of view) 'the cap' will once again be holding the aces in this hand of Friday's weather.

What does that mean, wxdata, that the chances of a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak are not in our favor?

[wxdata]

What does that mean, wxdata, that the chances of a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak are not in our favor?

Strong southwest winds aloft usually keep the cap strong here. Under current forecasts, the only chance for severe would occur with the upward forcing from the front late Friday/early Saturday. Even then the chance is slight or less ( for here.)

That being said, the NAM may not yet go out far enough into the future. The 12z GFS is looking a little more favorable for severe weather early Saturday morning.

[sleetstorm]

Okay, thank you wxdata. Hey, who knows, perhaps the front will easily overcome the cap enough to where a slight to moderate Supercell Thunderstorm outbreak does in fact happen to be the case of transpiring. Just my thoughts.

[Ptarmigan]

Now, if we could find a way to get rid of this southwestern cockroach wind aloft and cockroach cap.....................