December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[tireman4]

Jorge made reference to this on a different weather forum, which got me all nostalgic about Houston snow miracles. 4 snow miracles in 7 years would do a lot to ease the disappointment the drought has caused.

A 'little birdie' hinted to me that our friends at Impact Weather are thinking some winter mischief could be ahead as we go deeper into December into January. We will see...

Hummm....

[ticka1]

Ahh man...sounds like a mighty slow, non-exciting and warm next 7 days...

9 days to the New Mexico Bowl. And I posted a copy of the TwisterData.com snow map from yesterday's 18Z GFS to my Facebook page. Yes, it will be immensely dull, but its been immensely dulll since February's freezing drizzle event, and we have survived. As long as we get a post-truncation GFS run every other day showing a 10 or 12 day snow threat, we'll muddle through.

Ed you have a facebook page????

[srainhoutx]

One of the things we'll need to watch in the coming week or two is just how much snow falls across the Plains. With a pattern that suggests cut off lows and storm systems ejecting N and E from the deep W Coast trough as well as the noisy sub tropical jet, the chances of some rather potent winter storms affecting the Rockies and the Plains increase. Snow cover is well established across Western Canada with the active polar jet to our N. That snow cover usually suggests less air mass modification. If we see the persistent Ridge (PNA) near the Gulf of Alaska and an eventual weakening of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), then perhaps some chilly air will spill across the Arctic Regions from Siberia. Just a few things to watch in the next few weeks…

[srainhoutx]

I'll say one thing. The GFS continues to be persistent regarding wintry mischief chances for Texas next weekend. If the other guidance begins to 'bite', we may have something to watch early next week…

[JackCruz]

It's not as south as it was yesterday...but it's sill fairly "close" and anything can happen....at least it's there and hasn't completely disappeared

This was yesterday's

[srainhoutx]

The front has pushed to the Coastal Counties this morning and cloudy and cool conditions with a slight chance of very light rain/drizzle possible down near Matagorda Bay. There is a weak short wave to our W that should pass later today into tonight with perhaps some very light drizzle as the noisy STJ remains close by. A warming trend should begin early next week bring us back to seasonal temps. The next chance of rain appears to be on Thursday as a storm system begins to track E from the W Coast trough. The storm track appears to be across the TX Panhandle into the Southern/Central Plains. The best chances for heavier rains/storms look to be up in N TX, but rain chance should increase as a Pacific front swings through. As the storm system tracks across the Plains, a potent winter storm looks to tap into the northern stream and much colder air and a reinforcing cold front dives S next Saturday. Guidance continues to struggle with the pattern as yet another upper low digs S into Arizona and sets the stage for yet another over running event. We'll need to monitor this situation early next week as we could see a similar situation as we saw last weekend with very chilly temps, over running precip and even wintry mischief for W TX, the Panhandle and possibly as far S as N Central TX. Sound familiar? We are stuck in this type of pattern and once again expect changes in the forecast. High pressure ridging across the Gulf of Alaska (+PNA) as well as deep troughing across the West and Central CONUS and upper air storms dropping into CA/AZ/Baja Region look to persist. There are indications of a blocking pattern developing. As we move along into the month of December things could become very interesting if this type of pattern persists. There is even some hints of a McFarland signature, but that remains to be seen. Some longer range guidance suggests a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW) may be in the works and with the unusually cold air in the stratosphere (+AO) and the Polar Vortex parked on our side of the hemisphere over Canada, the stage could be set for a big drop of Arctic type air as we move along. This is still a ways out and things can and often do change, but I thought it was note worthy to at least mention some of the longer range possible solutions as we head into the beginning of Winter later this month.

[wxman57]

i demand BITTER COLD AND SNOW AND DEMAND IT NOW. IM TIRED OF ALL THE MODEL HYPE AND MODEL HUGGING. I WILL COMPLETLEY IGNORE WXMANS CHRISTMAS FORECAST THREAD. WXMAN LIKES TO MODEL HUG 384 HOURS OUT.
ALL FORUM POSTERS WHO DISPLAY NEGATIVITY TOWARD BITTER COLD AND SNOW SHOULD BE BANNED. WE NEED POSITIVITY AND HOPE

I think the perfect weather for Christmas Day would be a high in the mid 80s.

[TexasBreeze]

80's and sunny would be nice to have on Christmas day to be able to be comfy outside. Might as well be warm if no snow.

[srainhoutx]

Some mighty chilly air is poised to spill S next weekend with a shallow sharp Arctic front. The 12Z guidance suggests that once the storm system tracks NE across the Plains mid week, that cold air will be pulled S along the lee side of the Rockies. Now we'll have to see what happens with the upper air disturbance forecast to drop S into the SW. The 12Z Euro raises an eyebrow and if the guidance is under estimating the strength of that cold air, then things could become interesting for parts of Texas.

[JackCruz]

Some might chilly air is poised to spill S next weekend with a shallow sharp Arctic front. The 12Z guidance suggests that once the storm system tracks NE across the Plains mid week, that cold air will be pulled S along the lee side of the Rockies. Now we'll have to see what happens with the upper air disturbance forecast to drop S into the SW. The 12Z Euro raise an eyebrow and if the guidance is under estimating the strength of that cold air, then things could become interesting for parts of Texas.

Do you think there will be a pattern change coming at the end of December....or will we enjoy this weather pattern for a while?
There seems to be a lot of possibilities for winter precip with this type of pattern.

[srainhoutx]

Brrrr...

[ticka1]

Srainhoutx - how cold is your brrrr on those maps?

[srainhoutx]

Srainhoutx - how cold is your brrrr on those maps?

Still a ways out ticka1, but let's just say a bit colder than earlier this week...

[srainhoutx]

There is already some chatter from the NWS offices from KS/TX/OK and AR regarding the potential for wintry mischief next weekend, for what it's worth.

[biggerbyte]

LOL

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z operational GFS flipped to a much warmer solution regarding late next weekend. In fact it would suggest temps in the 70's. The GFS ensembles paint a much different picture with colder temps. The Euro/Canadian remain rather 'chilly' but suggest the upper air disturbance lingers longer to our W, for what it's worth. As we have mentioned many times during this current pattern, the guidance is struggling beyond the 3-5 day range and there is little confidence in any forecast in the medium/long range. On another note, I see that many S Texas locations reported over 2 inches of rain yesterday. That is great news regarding the drought. An active week appears to be ahead with warming temps, severe weather chances to our N and a couple of fronts for the week ahead. The pattern looks to remain very active with no real change on the horizon.

[wxman57]

Models are coming into better agreement on the next southern stream storm system (next weekend). Still way too far out to be very confident in what will develop. Solution agreed upon is a deepening upper low over SW AZ next Friday. The low kicks out to the NE across north TX/OK next Sun/Mon. Thickness values up there are a bit high for snow on the latest runs, but I think there's a good chance of some significant snow in north TX (panhandle and Red River area) and OK next Sun/Mon. However, the GFS confines the snow to the TX panhandle and leaves OK out of it.

For us, nothing at all indicates anything other than rain. In fact, the cold front may not make it through Houston until the upper low passes to our north. Can't be sure of that now, as it's going to depend on the airmass that moves south. Models have a hard time with shallow cold air, so we could be in the cold airmass with rain next Sun/Mon.

All models are also in agreement on moderating temps (warmer) after the 21st. Nothing I'd call warm, but maybe highs in the 60s to low 70s. That, too, is highly uncertain, as we could see a reinforcing shot of semi-cold air between the 21st and 25th.

[JackCruz]

Well this sucks.

[biggerbyte]

Don't worry about, Jackcruz. Unless we are forecasting out three or four days from today, and sometimes that is pushing it, especially during the winter, you may as well ask your pet rock what the weather is going to be like beyond that timeframe.

[srainhoutx]

The big issue arising from the 12Z guidance is the potential for precip, and perhaps a lot of it. With a zonal upper air pattern and a slow moving cut off low to our W in S CA/AZ, copious moisture appears to be on tap from the Gulf as ridging develops near FL creating an onshore flow. The Wednesday night/Thursday front appears to stall across Central and SE TX. This could be a big focal point for some moderate rains. The front appears to hang across the area throughout next weekend before the upper air disturbance and attending multiple short wave energy begins to move to the E early in the week before Christmas. There is still some uncertainty, but areas N of the boundary could get rather chilly and as the upper air (cold core) low slowly drags E, colder temps should finally push the front with a re-inforcing shot of modified arctic air S into the NW Gulf. We have an active pattern ahead and expect changes and 'fine tuning' throughout the week.