MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 20, 2026 5:35 am
I still think most of us here will see freezing rain. Duke, Jason and I may see sleet.
I think you might want add me to the maybe sleet mix (Humble). Still early
Yes, Humble would be a possibility. Only people who may miss out would be coastal residents.
coastal residents meaning directly on the coast like freeport? or coastal counties meaning places like Rosharon and Pearland? that are farther away from the coast
I think you might want add me to the maybe sleet mix (Humble). Still early
Yes, Humble would be a possibility. Only people who may miss out would be coastal residents.
coastal residents meaning directly on the coast like freeport? or coastal counties meaning places like Rosharon and Pearland? that are farther away from the coast
Beach people.
I don’t think Pearland will see the amount of freezing precip that several of us will see to the north and west of Houston, but my guess is they will qualify for at least an advisory and possibly Ice Storm Watch criteria.
I can’t see Pearland or Rosharon getting
More than a quarter inch and a tenth to two tenths the most likely.
Why I believe CoCo, Austin, Montgomery and maybe Waller counties and points north will go under a Winter Storm Watch Friday and Harris/Ft Bend and South a WWA … AS OF RIGHT NOW.
Jeff definitely sees it like I do and he is being conservative. I think he sees the HPs getting stronger and if they come in stronger, then you can probably add Ft Bend, Harris, maybe Wharton to the WSW criteria as they would stay at or below freezing Saturday and Sunday.
My hometown is going to have one hell of a Winter Storm.
Historically speaking, which may or may not be useful for this
particular event, these shallow cold airmasses typically arrive
faster and are colder than global guidance indicates. It`s also
not uncommon to see some general consistency for several days,
then some runs where guidance looses the signal, before it
magically reappears in later runs. Try not to follow any
individual model suite/run...or individual social media
snapshot. Trends are your friend.
My comments on what the overnight models are saying. Note that the Canadian was completely ignored due to it being an extreme outlier for the Houston area. Looks like the EC hates the D-FW area with all that freezing rain and sleet (and lack of snow). GFS heaviest precip line is farther south.
I plotted the 00Z models and 00Z snow and ZR forecasts (GFS & EC). As for temps in Houston, the Canadian remains way, way colder than any other model (blue lines) - down to 13F Mon and 14F Tue. General consensus is Houston temps dropping to freezing early Sunday morning and hovering in the 32-35 deg range all day Sunday. Precip ends by Sunday PM and temps drop to 26-29 on Monday. Possibly another light freeze Tuesday (31-33). This is for central Houston. Locations closer to GLS Bay may be a couple degrees warmer (except during the precip).
GFS Precip:
Freezing rain and sleet starting around 6am Sunday and ending by 6pm. It has 0.1 to 0.15" of ice accumulations, which is enough for some icy bridges/overpasses but not enough to cause power issues. Similar amounts SW LA to Baton Rouge area. Main core of freezing rain and sleet is from central Texas to central Louisiana to central MS, where it has 0.5" to 1.25" accumulating.
Snow starts in the TX Panhandle 9am Friday. Heaviest snow from SE New Mexico to the Red River (mostly on 9am Sat to 9am Sun). This includes 7-10" in the D-FW area. Only trace amounts down to the Waco area to north of Alexandria, LA.
ECMWF Precip:
Freezing rain and/or sleet starts Friday afternoon in north TX (not to D-FW area yet). Core of precip is just south of the D-FW area - from NW of Waco to just south of D-FW to Texarkana and along the AR/LA border to central MS. Ice totals between 1 inch and 1.75 inches in this area (severe ice storm). No freezing rain or sleet accumulations in Harris County, SW LA, or SE LA. Lower limit of ZR goes from near College Station to just south of Alexandria, LA. Just cold rain and an occasional sleet pellet for the Greater Houston area.
Heaviest snow central TX Panhandle to southern OK (north of Red River) then east to central Arkansas. Only trace amounts in the D-FW area. No snow southern Arkansas south to northern LA. Light snow extreme northern MS.
Main Differences
The main difference between the EC and GFS is with the core of ZR and snow. GFS is 75-100 miles south of the EC with both the heaviest snow and ZR/sleet. I think I'd favor the EC over the GFS, as the GFS tends to overdo such events and it may not handle the upper air pattern as well as the Euro.
I’m beginning to think temperatures won’t be a problem, but what’s concerning me is that the heaviest precipitation axis looks to be N of our area and those of us S of I-10 could just get light accumulations. Really would like to see the heavier stuff shift S 100 miles.
cperk wrote: ↑Tue Jan 20, 2026 9:26 am
I don't want anything to do with freezing rain or sleet.
I will say this, and this comes with experience with Research Triangle ( Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) winters. Sleet is much easier to drive on that freezing rain, of course. Once you get used to it, sleet is manageable (drive in the grooves on the road, stay at 40/45 mph on the highway, leave an hour early and make your stops at least 500/700 feet before). Now, snow is the easiest, especially the dry snow. Freezing rain is the pits. You have no idea where the ice is and when you steer into the spin, you have to use the emergency brake to gently tap it to stop. I had to learn that the hard way.
The NAM is coming in colder. I will stand by my earlier statement. I think Thursday and onward will be the models to watch.
cperk wrote: ↑Tue Jan 20, 2026 9:26 am
I don't want anything to do with freezing rain or sleet.
I will say this, and this comes with experience with Research Triangle ( Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) winters. Sleet is much easier to drive on that freezing rain, of course. Once you get used to it, sleet is manageable (drive in the grooves on the road, stay at 40/45 mph on the highway, leave an hour early and make your stops at least 500/700 feet before). Now, snow is the easiest, especially the dry snow. Freezing rain is the pits. You have no idea where the ice is and when you steer into the spin, you have to use the emergency brake to gently tap it to stop. I had to learn that the hard way.
The NAM is coming in colder. I will stand by my earlier statement. I think Thursday and onward will be the models to watch.
Whenever we have freezing rain, I don’t even go anywhere, and I’ve never understood why people are on the roads to begin with.
