2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[srainhoutx]

Snip from the morning TWD:

SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA GENERATING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS
FOR CONSISTENCY ON THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

My hunch is that we'll see some sort of monsoonal gyre spin up a disturbance later in the week/next weekend. Again, we will see...

[Portastorm]

Here's hoping your "hunch" is right, srain ... and that the High Pressure Ridge of Death erodes enough over us that the tropics become our main influence!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS is advertising an organized disturbance forming in the SW Caribbean. I'd not bet the farm on any operational model depicting the 'location' of the Upper Ridge in the medium/long range at this point. Too many times this year, that guidance has been wrong with the placement and the ensembles show something else as the HPC has mentioned repeatedly this year...

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian is a bit faster developing a system, but does suggest the same general area...

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps a trigger for the SW Caribbean monsoonal trough...?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[srainhoutx]

Another area to keep an eye on is off the coast of Nicaragua. A tropical wave is slowly moving W as an upper low shears out and wind shear is slowly decreasing. With guidance suggesting a N lifting monsoonal trough near mid week, that area may need to be monitored...

[srainhoutx]

Another development worth noting is the empirical MJO wave propagation has made a major shift to suggesting rising air (more tropical thunderstorm chances) for the next several weeks...

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

The Euro ensembles suggest generally lower pressures across the EC, Caribbean and the Gulf in the 6-10 day timeframe...

[srainhoutx]

While the models aren't very sure exactly where they want to develop a disturbance, there is a hint that the EPAC and NW Caribbean/Bay of Campeche may be the favored areas to watch...

[srainhoutx]

^^^
I wish we had the forum technology to autosize hotlinks.

Actually I was on my Iphone at the time Ed, and the hotlink has been replaced with an attachment.

[wxman57]

Projected steering currents over the next week would indicate that anything trying to spin up in the western Caribbean would continue moving westward into Mexico. Don't see any threat to Texas yet.

[ticka1]

Mid-August to mid-sept or late sept for us....that's the peak time if it does happen!

[djmike]

Why have'nt we seen the early spring up storms like the previous years? I live here in Beaumont and I remember the past few years in June and July we had some disturbances and a few tropical storms and even a hurricane. I hear that this year is supposed to compare to 2008 (Ike year) but it sure has been quiet. Can we still expect a busy time for the gulf and Carribean? Just wondering what is different this year than the previous years? Mexico seems to be the target all the time....lol..Thanks

[Ptarmigan]

The Euro ensembles suggest generally lower pressures across the EC, Caribbean and the Gulf in the 6-10 day timeframe...

Hint of an Arlene-ish look Days 8 through 10 on the Euro ensembles at the Alan Huffman site.

OK, wrong basin, but if you saw what the Euro was forecasting for Okinawa...

That looks like a monsterous typhoon!

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMED
OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS LOW...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[srainhoutx]

The early morning High Resolution Visible Loop does hint a bit of a spin developing NNE of the ABC Islands in the Southern Caribbean for what it's worth.

[srainhoutx]

Where are the Hurricanes? Well our friends at ImpactWeather issued a new video this morning to answer that very question...

http://www.youtube.com/user/impactweath ... 60BMdD645s

[srainhoutx]

A very impressive wave is about to roll off Africa. This feature has a bit more latitude and organization of what we've seen lately. Perhaps another area to monitor...

[srainhoutx]

Still keeping an eye on the SW Caribbean/EPAC area as convection is still firing and W to SW wind flow on the EPAC side has commenced near the monsoonal trough. The models are 'sniffing' slow development in that region as the trough lifts slowly N. A broad area of low pressure appears to forming, but which Basin (Atlantic/EPAC) is still in question...