2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Stratton20]

The NHC has pulled the trigger on a wave just east of the leeward islands, could develop as it gets into the NW caribbean or SW gulf in about 7-8 days,
I am already seeing some folks saying this will just plow straight into mexico and thats all she wrote, however I am not truly not convinced that this will just get shoved straight into mexico, alot to watch, definitely a noticeable spread in ensemble guidance

[Pas_Bon]

I'm looking at 12Z runs and I honestly don't see anything showing up. At all.
I see the lemon from the NHC, but I see no modeling to match.

[TexasBreeze]

I see a straight forward easy forecast of another Mexico special even further south than the previous 2 systems.

[Stratton20]

Pas_Bon their is something to watch, ensembles are starting to show some development as the wave gets into the western or NW caribbean where the environment is more favorable for some development, where it goes from their is still way too far out to say, bur dont just focus on the operational runs, those don’t matter this far out

[Stratton20]

TexasBreeze not so fast their, im going to have to caution you not to assume a track is set for mexico, the wave is over 2000 miles from the GOM so alot can change, yes their will be a heat ridge over the US, yes this will get steered west, but thats not a guarantee that it will get steered into mexico, their is plenty of spread in the ensemble guidance, alot can change given how far away this wave is

[Pas_Bon]

Pas_Bon their is something to watch, ensembles are starting to show some development as the wave gets into the western or NW caribbean where the environment is more favorable for some development, where it goes from their is still way too far out to say, bur dont just focus on the operational runs, those don’t matter this far out

I'm not focusing on operational....you simply stated ensembles were showing....etc.
I was just relaying to you that I didn't see anything on the ensembles and questioning which ensembles, because I have not been seeing anything

[Stratton20]

Ensembles are definitely showing something, its just not an overly strong signal * yet*, here is the 12z GEPS that just came out, EPS. is mainly clustered around the tex/mex border at day 8-9

[Cpv17]

Pas_Bon their is something to watch, ensembles are starting to show some development as the wave gets into the western or NW caribbean where the environment is more favorable for some development, where it goes from their is still way too far out to say, bur dont just focus on the operational runs, those don’t matter this far out

I'm not focusing on operational....you simply stated ensembles were showing....etc.
I was just relaying to you that I didn't see anything on the ensembles and questioning which ensembles, because I have not been seeing anything

There’s been a signal for it on the ensembles, just not a real strong one.

[tireman4]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A westward-moving tropical wave located over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development once
the wave reaches the western Caribbean late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[tireman4]

After shedding nearly all of its convection yesterday afternoon/evening, our vigorous TW has refired new convection as it moves into the SE Caribbean. Strong trade winds will prevent development but as the wave passes Jamaica's longitude and slows, some development is possible. pic.twitter.com/OaSHdDCHUG
-- Danny Morris (@dmorris9661) June 25, 2024

[tireman4]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves
quickly westward at around 25 mph. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development once the wave reaches the
western Caribbean Sea late this week, and some development is also
possible over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

[Stratton20]

More ensemble members from the GEFS, GEPS and EPS suggest that a MDR system may find itself in the GOM in about 10-12 says, that is something to watch

[Cpv17]

More ensemble members from the GEFS, GEPS and EPS suggest that a MDR system may find itself in the GOM in about 10-12 says, that is something to watch

I think this might’ve been what Srain was talking about a few days ago.

[Stratton20]

Very bullish signal for the gulf on the EPS, GEFS and GEPS in about ~12 days or so ,

[tireman4]

I agree with Matt on this one. I suppose it is better now than with a storm brewing...

[tireman4]

94L

Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves quickly
westward at around 25 mph. Environmental conditions could become
more conducive for some gradual development late this week over the
western Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[tireman4]

Wxman 57 on 94L

Looks like this wave will bury itself in Central America. Very low chance of development. One thing you can see in the satellite loop is strong westerly upper-level wind on the south side of a TUTT axis that extends from the northern Yucatan, east across Cuba. Wave in eastern Atlantic will hit this shear in the Caribbean. it could develop east of the Caribbean, though.

[Cpv17]

We should pay attention to the second wave imo.

[tireman4]

There is this one.....The National Hurricane Center assigned 30 percent odds of development to this wave over the next week, which seems like a good opening volley. Modeling has been fairly aggressive with this, as both a number of GFS and European model ensemble members try to spin this one up into a depression or storm by the time it gets to the Caribbean islands. It would be rare but not totally unheard of to see a system form out here this early in the season. Per Kieran Bhatia, a leading hurricane expert in the insurance industry, only two systems have formed east of 51°W longitude in June since 1960, most recently Elsa in 2021. Whether this forms in June or the first days of July, if at all is still up for debate, of course. But it is worth watching.

Currently, this wave is located in an area with a lot of dry air to the north as Saharan dust expands across the Atlantic. In about 3 days, that situation does not really change. The Euro and GFS are generally similar about 3 days from now, showing this wave trying to organize east of the islands and very, very far south in the basin.

[Cpv17]

There is this one.....The National Hurricane Center assigned 30 percent odds of development to this wave over the next week, which seems like a good opening volley. Modeling has been fairly aggressive with this, as both a number of GFS and European model ensemble members try to spin this one up into a depression or storm by the time it gets to the Caribbean islands. It would be rare but not totally unheard of to see a system form out here this early in the season. Per Kieran Bhatia, a leading hurricane expert in the insurance industry, only two systems have formed east of 51°W longitude in June since 1960, most recently Elsa in 2021. Whether this forms in June or the first days of July, if at all is still up for debate, of course. But it is worth watching.

Currently, this wave is located in an area with a lot of dry air to the north as Saharan dust expands across the Atlantic. In about 3 days, that situation does not really change. The Euro and GFS are generally similar about 3 days from now, showing this wave trying to organize east of the islands and very, very far south in the basin.

I’m really wondering if the Caribbean will ever be favorable for development again? It seems as if it’s been a graveyard for several years now. When was the last time we actually saw a Caribbean Cruiser?