This week in Boca at the Boca Raton resort on the Atlantic. Next two weeks back to our place back in IRB on the west coast. Thank goodness for house sitters keeping the plants and lawn alive back in Texas. It looks brutal.
Nice! I just got back from Jupiter visiting my wife's family. I love that area. My father in law has a huge mango tree and it is loaded. I had to bring a few back with me!
It’s a little slice of paradise. After all, Florida got its name in Spanish as the place with ‘an abundance of flowers’ or ‘covered in flowers.’
My aunt from Dunedin flew to Houston today to visit family (my sister and baby nephew). I sent her the forecast and she couldn’t believe how hot it’s going to be. Told her “welcome to Texas”
I’m so done with it. Can the kids graduate sooner?!?!? Haha.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
The key message continues to be hot and humid weather with
afternoons heat index values close to or exceeding 108°F across
most locations. It is important to practice heat safety whenever
you are. Visit weather.gov/heat for more heat safety information.
Now, let`s talk about today`s forecast. As we all know, the heat
is the main topic as the 591-594 dam heights remain strong and
anchored over Mexico. This pattern is bringing zonal flow aloft
and warmer southwest flow at 850 mb across Southeast TX. In fact,
850 mb temperatures remain in the mid 20s degC today, suggesting
sfc temperatures from the mid to upper 90s. A few locations may
even see temperatures in the triple digits. The combination of hot
and humid conditions will once again lead to dangerous heat index
values across most of Southeast TX. Therefore, the Heat Advisory
remains in effect from 1 PM this afternoon through 7 pm this
evening and has been expanded to include Houston County.
Another warm and mostly cloudy night can be expected as low
clouds/stratus and areas of fog develop over the region. Some weak
shortwaves will move further north of the region (near the Red
River/ArkLaTex)late this evening/overnight. The environment looks
to remain capped; however, a stray of shower/storm cannot be ruled
out near/north of the Houston County.
Thursday is shaping up to be even hotter as the upper ridge axis
moves overhead. Highs are progged to climb into the upper 90s to
102°F with peak heat index values reaching or exceeding 110°F.
Heat Advisories will likely be re-issued. In terms of
precipitation, chances are quite low given the amount of
subsidence/dry air. However, will continue to monitor some weak
shortwaves embedded in the zonal flow aloft that are progged to
move near/over our forecast area late Thursday afternoon and
evening. Confidence in occurrence is low, thus will only keep very
low chances (< 14 percent) during this time frame.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Ridging should continue across the Southern Plains/Mexico through
the end of the week and into next week. Peak 500mb height within the
midlevel ridge should remain near 594-595 dam, with robust
subsidence still progged to suppress rain chances, even as weak
disturbances pass just north of the region. 850mb temperatures
should be around 22-28C during this time frame, with southwesterly
flow present at this level. NAEFS 850mb temperatures are still above
the 99th percentile, nearing the climatological max at times through
early next week. Global ensembles still show hot conditions
continuing beyond Tuesday, with no clear end in site from these hot
conditions.
Highs from Friday to Tuesday should be in the upper 90s to lower
100s. Heat indices will likely exceed 108 F degrees, warranting
heat advisories daily. Excessive heat warnings could be needed for
Friday and Saturday, as heat indices exceed 113 F degrees.
Given this period of prolonged heat, heat safety should be
practiced as much as possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an
air- conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on
relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be
left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Know the
signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear
lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Scattered to broken MVFR ceilings and patchy fog will continue
through 14-15Z Wed, then VFR conditions can be expected.
Southerly winds will gradually strengthen through the day with
gusts up to 20-25 knots possible. Expect another period of MVFR
conditions with low ceilings and areas of fog developing as early
as 02Z Thursday and continuing through the night/remainder of
this TAF cycle.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Moderate onshore winds with 4 to 5 ft seas are expected over the
next several days. Caution flags will be needed with winds
occasional nearing advisory criteria. These elevated winds and seas
may bring a higher risk of risk currents throughout the next few
days.
03
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Here are the high temperature records for the rest of the week and
over the weekend.
College Station (CLL) (records date back to 1889):
-Wed (14th) 107 set in 1998
-Thu (15th) 106 set in 1911
-Fri (16th) 104 set in 1901
-Sat (17th) 108 set in 1901
-Sun (18th) 106 set in 1894
Houston (IAH) (records date back to 1889):
-Wed (14th) 102 set in 1998
-Thu (15th) 100 set in 2011
-Fri (16th) 100 set in 1902
-Sat (17th) 100 set in 2011
-Sun (18th) 103 set in 1918
Houston Hobby(HOU) (records date back to 1931):
-Wed (14th) 101 set in 1998
-Thu (15th) 101 set in 1998
-Fri (16th) 100 set in 1963
-Sat (17th) 102 set in 1934
-Sun (18th) 101 set in 1934
Galveston (GLS)(records date back to 1874):
-Wed (14th) 95 set in 2021
-Thu (15th) 93 set in 2022
-Fri (16th) 96 set in 1934
-Sat (17th) 95 set in 1901
-Sun (18th) 99 set in 1918
Palacios (PSX) (records date back to 1943):
-Wed (14th) 97 set in 2021
-Thu (15th) 96 set in 1948
-Fri (16th) 93 set in 2022
-Sat (17th) 96 set in 1943
-Sun (18th) 93 set in 2022
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ163-176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday morning for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 7:31 am
Lots of smoke (I guess that’s what it is?) around this morning.
Haze. There's also plentiful cloud cover over the skies as well. Combined with higher sustained dewpoints (as opposed to the more aggressive modeled mixing), the result has been for highs to underperfom a few degrees so far this heatwave compared to guidances.
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 7:31 am
Lots of smoke (I guess that’s what it is?) around this morning.
Haze. There's also plentiful cloud cover over the skies as well. Combined with higher sustained dewpoints (as opposed to the more aggressive modeled mixing), the result has been for highs to underperfom a few degrees so far this heatwave compared to guidances.
It was so bad this morning it almost looked like fog. I couldn’t even see the sun this morning.
High temps have been about 4-5° below forecast here so far this week.
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
VFR conditions currently across SE Texas with S winds at 10-15 KTS
with gusts up to 25 KTS at times. MVFR cigs are expected to return
tonight, some may have cigs lowering to IFR briefly. Winds will
relax to 03-08 KTS overnight into Thu morning and isolated patchy
fog could develop along sites with calm winds. Cigs are expected
to lift after sunrise and winds will strengthen again to 10-15 KTS
with occasional gusts up to 25 KTS.
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 7:31 am
Lots of smoke (I guess that’s what it is?) around this morning.
Haze. There's also plentiful cloud cover over the skies as well. Combined with higher sustained dewpoints (as opposed to the more aggressive modeled mixing), the result has been for highs to underperfom a few degrees so far this heatwave compared to guidances.
It was so bad this morning it almost looked like fog. I couldn’t even see the sun this morning.
High temps have been about 4-5° below forecast here so far this week.
Models often get too excited about building ridges in early summer. They also seem to like to dry out our dewpoints too much.
Interesting run by the euro, has the MDR starting to wake up and even briefly hinting at a weak surface low forming around the yucatan penninsula before drifting into the BOC, its probably nothing, but just interesting to see that
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 2:22 pmModels often get too excited about building ridges in early summer. They also seem to like to dry out our dewpoints too much.
I've seen some of these models runs with intense 110°F+ heat across Texas, venturing into Louisiana: I switch to the modeled dews, and they are down to the low 50s, numbers that I've never seen before along the Gulf Coast during summer.
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 2:22 pmModels often get too excited about building ridges in early summer. They also seem to like to dry out our dewpoints too much.
I've seen some of these models runs with intense 110°F+ heat across Texas, venturing into Louisiana: I switch to the modeled dews, and they are down to the low 50s, numbers that I've never seen before along the Gulf Coast during summer.
The ensembles have a weaker or more elongated Death Ridge than the models, especially GFS.
It's going to suck. But not 110°F suck (fingers crossed).
Having said that - because the DR center setup is south of us, there's a possibility that on the northside that westerlie Chihuahuan desert air at mid levels would filter in and down in the area, plunge DPs, raising temps.
captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 2:22 pmModels often get too excited about building ridges in early summer. They also seem to like to dry out our dewpoints too much.
I've seen some of these models runs with intense 110°F+ heat across Texas, venturing into Louisiana: I switch to the modeled dews, and they are down to the low 50s, numbers that I've never seen before along the Gulf Coast during summer.
Last summer, models were doing the same thing and nothing close verified. Yes, ridging is going to be rather strong, but nothing really crazy should happen. You just don't typically see extreme heat events unless you have widespread exceptional drought ongoing prior to the heatwave. Ground moisture is something models neglect far too often. This has a massive impact on highs due to water's heat capacity.
We are having really bad weather today in Mississippi. There was 5 inch hail 15 miles southeast of me and also numerous trees are down across much of central MS.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:28 pm
Id take that trade off, higher temps but lower dew points, i can handle 100+ degrees, but not with high humidity lol
im liking the trends in the GFS including this evenings run in regards to the death ridge, pretty much has the death ridge retrograding back into mexico/ west texas and leaves us potentially open to some disturbances being able to come in, this pattern isnt going to be nearly as bad as some on social media are making it
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 7:04 pm
im liking the trends in the GFS including this evenings run in regards to the death ridge, pretty much has the death ridge retrograding back into mexico/ west texas and leaves us potentially open to some disturbances being able to come in, this pattern isnt going to be nearly as bad as some on social media are making it
Yea. Good way to convert the "death ridge" into a "life ridge." 🥰
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:28 pm
Id take that trade off, higher temps but lower dew points, i can handle 100+ degrees, but not with high humidity lol
