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Storm Prediction Center Outlook: 30% chance of hail

10% chance of a tornado.

Buckle up.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 11:14 pm Storm Prediction Center Outlook: 30% chance of hail

10% chance of a tornado.

Buckle up.

About as bad as it gets around here.

Spacecity Weather really downplaying this.

https://spacecityweather.com/strong-sto ... and-areas/

I still think at some point today you’re gonna see a moderate risk issued. Kind of surprised it hasn’t happened yet.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:03 am I still think at some point today you’re gonna see a moderate risk issued. Kind of surprised it hasn’t happened yet.

I'm sure we will. I'm surprised severe thunderstorm and tornado watches aren't already up to be honest.

Back in the beginning of April 2017 we had a moderate risk and it was pretty much a bust so even if it does get upgraded to a moderate risk there’s always a chance it doesn’t live up to it.

New map from SPC.

Next update in 3 hours. SPC did mention a MDT risk may be issued.

Flood watch issued. SPC mentioned in their discussion this morning that a Moderate Risk may be needed today for some areas.

Any chance this thick cloud cover/rain (Houston area) could help keep the instability down this evening?

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 7:40 am Spacecity Weather really downplaying this.

https://spacecityweather.com/strong-sto ... and-areas/

I think it’s actually spot on and very measured without unduly alarming people. Eric is a sharp guy and knows his stuff. Reassuring amid a lot of hysteria.

“If this forecast gives you anxiety, please consider that NOAA’s forecast for storm activity locally is mostly in the orange or “enhanced” category (see above). This is relatively high, but there are two higher gradients of storm potential. So while our area is likely to see some severe activity, your personal chances of being directly affected by a tornado are really very low. With that said, due to the potential for inclement weather, this is time to pay attention. It is important that you have one or more ways to get weather warnings tomorrow night (such as you phone, a weather radio, etc.).”

I believe if a moderate risk does get issued it’ll be north of a Brenham to Conroe to Livingston line back up towards Tyler and Waco.

what time does the next SPC outlook come out at?

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:21 am what time does the next SPC outlook come out at?

11:30

Houstonkid wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:05 am Any chance this thick cloud cover/rain (Houston area) could help keep the instability down this evening?

Yep, that could happen.

Seems like they shaved a bit off the southern end of the 10% area this morning. Also, the city of Houston itself is no longer in the hatched area. Meanwhile the northern edge of the 10% and hatched areas got pushed a good bit north. Hopefully some slightly good signs.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:35 am

Houstonkid wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:05 am Any chance this thick cloud cover/rain (Houston area) could help keep the instability down this evening?

Yep, that could happen.

Thank you for the reply.

Too much cloud cover out there. Going to need that clear up a bit to destabilize the atmosphere. Looks like the severe threat has shifted north by about 50 miles.

Yep and im still in the bullseye lol

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:33 am Yep and im still in the bullseye lol

Yeah well College Station is dang near halfway to Dallas from where I live lol no escaping the severe weather up there. Rarely ever is. College Station gets way more severe weather than places south of I-10 and even Houston for that matter. All I want is at least half an inch of rain outta this.

Cpv17 yeag i doubt we escape at least a close call from a supercell, hoping for a bust with some beneficial rain but man i cant remember the last time seeing as significant of a tornado threat as what we have this evening