Wx Infinity Forums

sambucol wrote:It wouldn't head our way, would it?

Date (UTC): 2010/09/25 16:40
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/25 16:51
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI46L Official Name: Matthew Initial Center Point: 15N 84W
Notes:

Matthew is definitely moving westward for the next 36+ hours,
and I was able to determine a phase speed for all of the models.
However, the critical time period is after the initial two days
when either (1) Matthew moves eastward or (2) another system
develops east of Matthew. I decided to just use a phase speed
of 0 m/s because doing so provides a better depiction of the
later system. Also, because we are not flying Matthew now, it
is not critical to get an accurate phase speed for the next two
days.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECMWF: Phase Speed: 0.0 Determination: Level tracked:

(Phase speed for early forecast: -7.6 m/s)
Track: 72h, then dissipates
ECMWF then develops a another system to the east ... probably
with most of the vorticity coming from a current position in the
southwestern Caribbean.
GFS: Phase Speed: 0.0 Determination: Level tracked:


(Phase speed for early forecast: -6.9 m/s)
Track: 120h, but uncertain at 24 hours.
Matthew weakens over land, but then moves eastward and
reintensifies to become the Big One. As it does so, the GFS
Matthew absorbs the smaller vorticity centers to the east and
southeast that ECMWF develops into the Big One.
UKMET: Phase Speed: Determination: Level tracked:


Unavailable
NOGAPS: Phase Speed: 0.0 Determination: Level tracked:

(Phase speed for early forecast: -5.8 m/s)
Track: 120h
Like GFS, NOGAPS slides Matthew east and reintensifies it as the
Big One (which would most likely be Nicole, by the way....)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Other potential systems:
1. Small pouch that is moving westward just to the east of
Matthew. It barely lasts 60 hours in GFS. I track it in ECMWF
out to 120 hours as it becomes the "Big One", but is this small
pouch really the origins of the Big One?

2. A pouch develops that moves eastward in the monsoonal flow
south of Matthew. GFS then turns it northward and appears at
120 hours to be starting to be absorbed by the large Matthew
circulation. ECMWF most likely develops this feature as the
eventual Big One.

3. Pouch near the islands (St. Croix) moving westward has a
small TPW max. GFS only hangs onto it for 24 hours with a
pouch, and out to 60 hours with an OW max.

4. The GFS has a weak pouch up at 16 N latitude out to 72 hours
only.

5. A "micro-midget" is tracked by both GFS and ECMWF down at
925 hPa out to 120 hours.

6. GFS tracks a pouch off of Africa, but the situation is
confused because other weaker pouches are also depicted farther
west.

wxman57 wrote:
srain - where are you getting those PREDICT team discussions? They seem to have so many websites set up that I can't find the main one.

srainhoutx wrote:Next Monday, the 12Z GFS suggests another low that would be a TS/Hurricane nearing the SW coast of Florida