December 2018: Sunshine Returns New Years Eve

[jasons2k]

My youngest had a Holiday concert at his school. I walked out and it was completely calm. I thought to myself “where is all that crazy wind we were supposed to have this afternoon??”

It has arrived now. Getting cooler too.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My youngest had a Holiday concert at his school. I walked out and it was completely calm. I thought to myself “where is all that crazy wind we were supposed to have this afternoon??”

It has arrived now. Getting cooler too.

We had the same at our 3 year olds school. We live in Magnolia but go to GCA which is at 1488/45. Wondering if we were at the same thing.

[jasons2k]

My youngest had a Holiday concert at his school. I walked out and it was completely calm. I thought to myself “where is all that crazy wind we were supposed to have this afternoon??”

It has arrived now. Getting cooler too.

We had the same at our 3 year olds school. We live in Magnolia but go to GCA which is at 1488/45. Wondering if we were at the same thing.

No, we are zoned for Kaufman.

Hope you enjoyed the show. They are fun to watch! But wow, they grow up so fast.

[CRASHWX]

I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.

I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.

[Cpv17]

I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.

I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.

Just watch the Indian Ocean. When the thunderstorm activity in that area starts decreasing then watch out for cold across the US.

[harp]

I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.

I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.

Thanks. Yep, JB has been doing this his whole life and people still write him checks, so he must be good. I'm also interested to see what srain says.

[CRASHWX]

Yes I watch joe’s free daily videos and Saturday report. I usually plan my vacations around his game plan. Be interesting to see if his theory pans out on the cold showing up by Christmas and going gang busters January and February

[Texaspirate11]

I dont put much faith in overall the GFS and even littler faith in JB...just my opinion snd weather watching for years...

[harp]

I'm not getting into bashing anyone. I'll just refer back to my original question.

[Texaspirate11]

OH didn't mean to bash just talking out loud LOL
Stay warm everyone!

[Cpv17]

JB is too east coast biased because he lives in Pennsylvania, but overall I think he’s alright.

[Texaspirate11]

So...no wintry mix for us?

[Cpv17]

So...no wintry mix for us?

We’ll probably see some winter weather events over the next 3 months, but not tonight lol not even close tbh.

[DoctorMu]

I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.

I can’t explain anywhere as good as Srain or any of those steely eye weather guys but I know that a great deal of JB’s weather forecast come from a combination of things and in reality he relies very little on model to model runs. He also does not have a great deal of faith in the GFS when it comes to winter weather. JB said it has feed back problems and under estimates the cold and it’s push. How do you judge how good Joe is...well he handles a lot of really big clients that are highly effected by weather and they keep writing him big checks year after year... He is a bit goofy but I think he is a bout as good as you get on long range and verification. But I guess simply put the Global models just don’t seem to look at all the thing he looks at to make a prediction.

Thanks. Yep, JB has been doing this his whole life and people still write him checks, so he must be good. I'm also interested to see what srain says.

Folks cut AccuWeather checks, and their forecasts are terrible. TWC is not much better.

JB's hit and miss, but entertaining. A lot better at weather than climatology!

[Andrew]

I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.

Hey Harp,

In general, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is where you have very strong warming in the Stratosphere. Sometimes up to 50 degrees celcius. This, as a result, can really weaken upper-level flow and reverse the prevailing wind direction, especially for the higher latitude locations. Eventually (after a couple days to weeks) this can influence weather over parts of Europe and North America in particular. Some of the bigger cold events occur when this happens. While forecasting temperatures in the stratosphere have improved a lot over the years, it still can be difficult to forecast the impacts to the lower latitude because of how long it can take to propagate south.

Models do indicate an SSW event is possible towards the end of the month, but the impacts might not be felt until closer to New Years. At that point who gets impacted the most comes into question, and a lot of the models indicate the east coast could see more impacts than central/west U.S. I also included some links below going into more detail and a basic forecast map. Sorry if the explanation felt rushed, been a busy couple days and I can explain more in detail later if you want.

More Info

Forecast

[Andrew]

So...no wintry mix for us?

May see a pellet or two but that is probably about it. The warm pocket is deeper than models were indicating earlier plus surface temps are going to be so warm. Most of the actual winter precip will stay over Central and North Texas.

[harp]

I have a question. I keep reading about the end of the month and into January being colder. I also watched a video from JB and he explained the factors that are going to cause these changes, including sudden stratospheric warming. When will these changes begin to show up in the models? More specifically, the GFS, which really shows nothing through the 29th. If someone could explain this, it would be appreciated. I am just west of New Orleans, but follow this forum during this time of year.

Hey Harp,

In general, a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is where you have very strong warming in the Stratosphere. Sometimes up to 50 degrees celcius. This, as a result, can really weaken upper-level flow and reverse the prevailing wind direction, especially for the higher latitude locations. Eventually (after a couple days to weeks) this can influence weather over parts of Europe and North America in particular. Some of the bigger cold events occur when this happens. While forecasting temperatures in the stratosphere have improved a lot over the years, it still can be difficult to forecast the impacts to the lower latitude because of how long it can take to propagate south.

Models do indicate an SSW event is possible towards the end of the month, but the impacts might not be felt until closer to New Years. At that point who gets impacted the most comes into question, and a lot of the models indicate the east coast could see more impacts than central/west U.S. I also included some links below going into more detail and a basic forecast map. Sorry if the explanation felt rushed, been a busy couple days and I can explain more in detail later if you want.

More Info

Forecast

Thank you very much for the explanation.

[Andrew]

Got some light ice pellets/graupel on i-10 near bunker hill about 10 minutes ago.

[christinac2016]

All I’m seeing in the woodlands is drizzly rain.

[Andrew]

Looking at Christmas, nothing really shouts "interesting" weather. Models are indicating an omega block to occur over the western half of the U.S. in the next couple of days and shove any cold air east before finally shearing out and a zonal flow sets up. Looking at the NAO and AO also indicates not much is expected until after Christmas (think more towards the New Year). While there is still plenty of time for models to adjust, nothing synoptically really indicates a strong Meridional flow that could create winter weather for the state. I think the CPC's forecast of neutral temperatures across much of the United States is looking pretty good so far. I know there has been a lot of talk about a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, but that doesn't really look likely until late December and impacts may not be felt until January.

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