June Weather Discussion

[srainhoutx]

TORNADO WARNING
TXC225-455-471-091400-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0012.100609T1329Z-100609T1400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
829 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 826 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TRINITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LOVELADY AND TRINITY.

[srainhoutx]

Yikes...

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC091-187-209-091700-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0046.100609T1255Z-100609T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
755 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTY...
GUADALUPE COUNTY...
SOUTH CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY...

* UNTIL NOON CDT.

* AT 751 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE
FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES EAST OF ZORN TO GERONIMO TO MARION...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN MARCOS TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SEGUIN TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF NEW BRAUNFELS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
5 MPH. RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 4 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED.
NUMEROUS STREAMS ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD IN NEW BRAUNFELS AREA DUE
TO EARLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 12 INCHES. TRAVEL IN THE NEW
BRAUNFELS AREA IS DISCOURAGED.WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MCQUEENEY AND KINGSBURY.

[srainhoutx]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/09/10 1255Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1245Z DS
.
LOCATION...W LOUISIANA...E/CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...INCREASING CNVTN OVER E TX
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MID-UPPER LVL VORT OVER CENTRAL TX HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY COMPRESSED AS THE MCS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRIES TO
DROP SLIGHTLY SWD INTO NE OK. SVRL S/WV IMPULSES CAN BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THE VORT WITH ONE SWINGING NEWD ALONG THE TX COAST AT THIS
TIME. RECENT SATL WINDS SHOW AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER E TX JUST
AHEAD OF THIS LIFTING IMPULSE WHERE CNVTN HAS STARTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY..ESPECIALLY FROM WALKER COUNTY SW TO WASHINGTON
COUNTY. BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 2" OR HIGHER PW'S..UP
TO 2.2"..COVERING THE ERN HALF OF TX. SRLY TO SSWRLY LOW LVL FLOW THROUGH
THIS TROPICAL AIR IS CARRYING THE RICH MOISTURE NWD ON THE E SIDE OF
THE VORT TWDS NE TX AND THE TX/LA BORDER REGION.
.
SMALL PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CELLS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF
COMAL/GUADALUPE/HAYS/CALDWELL COUNTIES PRODUCING EXTREMELY HVY RAINFALL
RATES. AUTO SATL ESTIMATES INDICATE TOTALS OF UP TO 3.8" THROUGH
1215...THOUGH GIVEN THE STNRY NATURE OF THE CELLS AND HIGH MOISTURE IN
PLACE THESE TOTALS COULD BE UNDERDONE. MOST RECENT SATL IMAGES SHOWED
CLOUD TOP TEMPS TO -72C ASSCD WITH AN OVERSHOOTING TOP THAT CAN BE SEEN
IN VIS OVER COMAL/GUADALUPE COUNTY BORDER.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATL GRAPHIC SHOWING HVY RAIN THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE
AT THE WEB ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROX 10 MIN.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 13-15Z..MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM
OUTLOOK...EXPECT ADDTL CELLS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER E TX
DURING NEXT FEW HRS. SOME NEW CELLS CAN BE SEEN BEGINNING TO INITATE N
OF THE MID LVL CENTER FROM RAINS TO HILL COUNTIES. STNRY CNVTN APPEARS
TO BE ASSCD WITH THE VORT CENTER ITSELF AND MAY CONTINUE GIVEN THE VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE TRAPPED VORT.

[txflagwaver]

Email from Jeff L

Flash Flood Event unfolding over the northwestern parts of SE TX.

Radar indicates 3-4 inches of rain has fallen in the last 2 hours from College Station to near Giddings with totals of 5-6 inches over central Lee County.

Thunderstorms producing excessive rainfall continue to develop in a nearly stationary band from W of Huntsville to N of Columbus. An additional 2-4 inches of rainfall on top of what has fallen can be expected in the next 1-2 hours.

Mid level tropical low situation near Austin continues to favor intense development along a line from Huntsville to near San Marcos. Activity near San Marcos is starting to move ESE and increase in forward speed and this will likely begin to impact a greater portion of SE TX in the next 1-2 hours. Flooding and flash flooding will be the main threat.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL
300 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF NEW BRAUNFELS
TEXAS TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LUFKIN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG WEAK WSW/ENE ORIENTED
FRONT ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX CSTL PLN...IN ERN QUADRANT OF
QSTNRY UPR LOW. 20-25 KT LOW LVL SSELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 70S/ NWD INTO
FRONTAL ZONE. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND MODERATELY STRONG SW MID
LVL FLOW ATTENDANT TO UPR LOW...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
LOW LVL ROTATION/TORNADOES AND/OR LOCALLY DMGG WIND THROUGH MID
AFTN.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
907 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

TXZ163-164-176>178-198-091500-
GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-
907 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 903 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CRABBS PRAIRIE...
BEDIAS...AUSTONIO...RIVERSIDE...POINT BLANK...OAKHURST...MIDWAY...
MADISONVILLE...LOVELADY AND HUNTSVILLE.

[srainhoutx]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC041-051-185-477-091600-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0006.100609T1358Z-100609T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
858 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 850 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED WATER
BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE ON SOME BURLESON COUNTY ROADS WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF BRAZOS...BURLESON...
GRIMES AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING.

* LOCATIONS IN THE FLOOD WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WELLBORN...ROANS PRAIRIE...RICHARDS...QUARRY...MILLICAN...LAKE
SOMERVILLE DAM...KURTEN...INDEPENDENCE...IOLA...CHRIESMAN...
CARLOS...ANDERSON...WIXON VALLEY...SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...NAVASOTA...
COLLEGE STATION...BURTON AND BRYAN.

[srainhoutx]

Getting closer...this storm complex is the one responsible for all the flooding in the New Braunfels area...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC149-177-285-091515-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0105.100609T1421Z-100609T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
921 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN GONZALES COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN LAVACA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT.

* AT 919 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WAELDER TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAELDER TO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GONZALES...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FLATONIA TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF GONZALES TO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GONZALES...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CISTERN...MULDOON...
MOULTON...SHINER...HALLETTSVILLE...SCHULENBURG AND LA GRANGE.

VERY HEAVY RAINS WITH RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

[ticka1]

At first this looked like it was moving more to the NE but after looking again - I think its heading a little south.

Definitely will affect the northern counties - how close and how much will it affect the Houston Metro area and points to the west and east of us?

[biggerbyte]

The storms are moving n.e., but the area as a whole is slowly sliding eastward. We will just have to watch and wait to see if all of s.e. Texas gets any if this. Currently, it would appear that we will at some point. However, my gut tells me not to hold my breath. At the moment, I'm simply going by radar returns.

[srainhoutx]

HGX thinking that Flood Watch may need to be extended a bit further E. The one concern I have is the complex in Fayette County. This system has a long history of heavy rainfall rates and appears to be heading in a general easterly direction.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATE FOR TORNADO WATCH AND FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER C TX CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT ALONG WITH WIND/TORNADO THREAT GIVEN INCREASE LOW LEVEL
FLOW. MAIN CONCERNS ARE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN BURLESON/BRAZOS/GRIMES
COUNTIES WHERE STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN. ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON SVR
STORM IN FAYETTE COUNTY. WILL LIKELY NEED WARNINGS FOR
COLORADO/AUSTIN COUNTIES AS REAR INFLOW JET REMAINS QUITE
ORGANIZED. THIS BOWING SEGMENT MAY BE SUSTAINED AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE MOIST AIRMASS OVER SE TX GIVEN INFLOW OF UPPER 70F DEWPOINT
AIR. GIVEN THIS WILL ALSO EXPAND FLOOD WATCH TO
WALLER...MONTGOMERY AND WALKER COUNTIES. SUSPECT THAT GIVEN
TRAINING MAY NEED TO EXPAND FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TO THE
EAST. UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS ARE OUT.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1059 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

TXZ177-199-212-100000-
/O.EXA.KHGX.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-100610T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKSHIRE...CONROE...HEMPSTEAD...
HUNTSVILLE...PRAIRIE VIEW...THE WOODLANDS...WILLIS
1059 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS EXPANDED
THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...MONTGOMERY...WALKER AND
WALLER.

* UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON.

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
CROCKETT TO NAVASOTA TO COLUMBUS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

[biggerbyte]

We have to take precautions, as it does appear that our area will be under the gun later on. However, I've learned to take these things with a grain of salt after a number of these events have unexpectedly fizzled out before reaching our area. Right now, if I were the NWS, I would go ahead and issue advisories for counties east of current, just to let folks know that what we have west of us could be occuring here later on. This area of rain, if it were to reach us, would be slow to move out, just as it has been slow to move in.

[ticka1]

Could this become a flood event? I am hoping it don't move in until quitting time and after rush-hour. Being downtown and having to drive to the east side isn't easy if roads are flooded.

[gocuse22]

lol, why is my area under a 70 percent chance of rain when everything is clearly going north?

[rnmm]

Will these storms make it to Galveston County/my area too or is it just for places further inland?

[wxdata]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 286...

VALID 091615Z - 091745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 286 CONTINUES.

THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A MODEST SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET /ON THE ORDER OF 30+ KT/ CONTINUES
ACROSS MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF A WEAK
MID/UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A RELATIVELY DRY LAYER IN THE
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND THE
EVOLUTION OF GROWING SURFACE COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
LARGE STORM CLUSTER. THESE HAVE BEEN GENERALLY SLOWLY MOVING...BUT
ONE APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED EAST OF HUNTSVILLE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
COLLEGE STATION...AS ANOTHER ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO SURGE A BIT MORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
COLLEGE STATION. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR MAXIMIZED ON THE
STALLED PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW...AND THIS MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

OTHERWISE...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF
2 INCHES...AND INFLOW OF MID/UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS... LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS PROBABLY WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN SLOW
MOVING/TRAINING STORMS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM
AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS STRENGTHEN ...THE
TENDENCY MAY BE FOR CONVECTION TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX...SABINE VALLEY AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING.

[wxdata]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

..THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
CROCKETT TO NAVASOTA TO COLUMBUS. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 5 TO 7 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE.

[srainhoutx]

A bit concerned about the sunshine we are getting now in NW Harris County. After a low this morning of 82 degrees and mostly cloudy skies and virtually no wind all morning, the winds have picked up a bit the last hour.

[gocuse22]

sugar land is in the clear?