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WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 571
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
856 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 571 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES

AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON
COLORADO FORT BEND GRIMES
HARRIS HOUSTON JACKSON
LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY
POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY
WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON
WHARTON

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...
EDNA...EL CAMPO...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...
HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...
PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...
SUGAR LAND...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...
WHARTON AND WILLIS.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
EAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 850 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TODAY WHILE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF HOUSTON TEXAS
TO 20 MILES NORTH OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

Update from Jeff:

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for a large portion of SE TX until 400pm. All counties included except the coastal counties.

Air mass over SE TX continues to destabilize with the approach of both surface and upper level low pressure systems to our west. Low level shear profiles remain supportive of low level rotation in storms that can root near the surface in the warm sector. A couple of strong storms this morning have had some weak rotation over Montgomery County. Given a degree of two more heating and pool of 1000-1500 J/Kg CAPE advancing northward from the coastal counties will support and increasing tornado threat over the next several hours as the cold front approaches from the west. Main threat will be with discrete cells ahead of the cold front across the broad warm sector.

Potential is there for a couple of strong long track tornadoes especially in the 10% probability area for (EF2-EF5) tornadoes along and north of I-10. Cloud bases are low and moisture levels extremely high which may completely obscure tornadoes. Storms will be tracking from the south to north or SSW to NNE very quickly. Act immediately if a tornado warning is issued for your location.

A couple of impulses/surface lows E of San Antonio moving generally E to ENE will need to be monitored as we get a bit of heating before the front arrives. Keep an eye to the SW and W of Harris County as the analyzed 997mb low heads our way.

NWS Lubbock reports longtime Co Op Observer reports 18" of snow in near Friona. That was the best he could report due to blowing and drifting. Looks like the Blizzard part of the storm is increasing as the upper low tracks a bit S of the model guidance. Sleet reported in Del Rio.

srainhoutx wrote:A couple of impulses/surface lows E of San Antonio moving generally E to ENE will need to be monitored as we get a bit of heating before the front arrives. Keep an eye to the SW and W of Harris County as the analyzed 997mb low heads our way.

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/EWX_loop.gif

Thanks Srain. We had a fierce storm 90 min ago. About to get slammed again.

DoctorMu wrote:
Thanks Srain. We had a fierce storm 90 min ago. About to get slammed again.

Any reports you have up there, be sure to post them. I know that Jeff and the NWS folks are monitoring.

I have a feeling there are some folks not expecting much snow that are gonna end up with much snow depending on the final track of the low

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
947 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CST

* AT 947 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GROVETON...
OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APPLE SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GROVETON...KENNARD AND CENTRALIA.

Sudden wind shift to WNW. Temp has dropped 10 degrees in 5 min. Fair amount of shear in cloud movement. Broken line of storms to W and continuing to head almost due N.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CST

* AT 1007 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
BELLVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRENHAM AND INDEPENDENCE.

Severe storm heading into Brenham heading N.

76°F just S of college Station, 51°F just north of Bryan being reported.

srainhoutx wrote:BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CST

* AT 1007 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
BELLVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRENHAM AND INDEPENDENCE.

This severe storm is moving through just E of Brenham and towards Independence, Clay, and Allen Farm.

Update 10:30 am: This severe storm is riding a bubble of warm air up the front. Moving towards Independence and Millican. South of College Station and Iola in its path, which just east of due north. Looking for potential right turn.

Bob Pack of Chaos StormTeam chasing:

https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783557

SPC continues Enhanced Risk with their 1630Z Outlook:

Quick update on the Upper Low. It does appear the most Southern storm tracks seen throughout the past few days may indeed verify. The 5H Low continues to dig ESE near the Big Bend. EWX is going to attempt a Special 18Z sounding since reports of sleet in Del Rio and snow in Western Val Verde County are coming in. It appears the models have over estimated the warm nose across portions of S Central Texas.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1040 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

WASHINGTON TX-AUSTIN TX-
1040 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 1039 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BRENHAM AND BELLVILLE.

Brenham cell hitting a buckle in the front just S of College Station.

Rainfall up to 3 in per hour reported in this cell around Brenham

Maybe a hook echo approaching HWY 6 between Navasota and CLL on TWC, NOAA, WU radar on the warm side...moving fast 40 mph towards Iola

TORNADO WARNING until 11:30 am - getting details.

Washington, Brazos, Burleson Counties. Moving NE at 45 mph - Rotation detected in extreme northern Washington Co.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1106 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CST

* AT 1105 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILLICAN...OR 13 MILES
WEST OF NAVASOTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MILLICAN AROUND 1120 AM CST.
COLLEGE STATION AROUND 1130 AM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
WELLBORN AND INDEPENDENCE.