April 2015: Pleasant Weather To End April

[srainhoutx]

One more day of active weather then we should begin to dry out. The pesky upper low continues to spin to our Northwest and looks to meander East into the Central Plains by Monday ending our rain chances as much drier air arrives. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk for Severe Storms today, but it does not look nearly as active as the past couple of days. One more round of strong to possibly severe storms moves across our Region today and that should just about do it with the very unsettled pattern we have experienced the past week or so.

Another approaching upper low next week should bring a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms later next week. Fortunately at this time it does not look nearly as active as we have been experiencing, so our saturated soils can begin to dry out. I think it's safe to say that the drought has ended for much of the Lone Star State and Louisiana. Even portions of Mexico along the Gulf Coast and the Sierra Madre Mountains are seeing much above normal rainfall.

[Rip76]

What a night.
Still no power (12 hours now).

[Katdaddy]

The atmosphere has been worked over by last nights damaging bow echo. Headed over to mom's this morning to check on the wind damage in Pearland. The CenterPoint Outage Tracker shows 43,223 customers without power currently. The Pearland area has a cluster of customers still without power. The SPC has a slight risk across Central TX. Its possible isolated severe storms may develop after heating occurs and the atmosphere recovers as yet another disturbance approaches SE TX this afternoon however this does not look to be another damaging bow echo.

[Katdaddy]

Thunderstorms developing along the Upper TX Coast this afternoon but nothing like last night's severe weather event. Heavy rains will be the main threat as the grounds are saturated which will lead to instant runoff into creeks and bayous. Clear Creek at Countryside South Park is at flood stage with portions of the park under water.

[Paul Robison]

Question:

Why does SPC still have us in a slight risk area for day 2 (Sunday)? I was under the impression that conditions were going to begin improving Sunday (lower rain chances, et al.)




Or is the above tidbit from accuweather closer to what's going to happen on Sunday? (Note, we just barely have any rain, according to that one)

[Katdaddy]

Many kudos to you Paul for asking detailed questions. As you know, forecasting weather is a challenge.

[Rip76]

Radar out of Austin.

[srainhoutx]

One more active weather day and then we begin to dry out for a couple of days before next upper low/trough begins to organize mid to late week ushering in another chance of showers and strong to severe storms late week. The pesky upper low that has brought us prolific heavy rainfall and all modes of severe weather this past week begins to weaken and eject out into the Central Plains ushering in a strong Pacific front this evening setting the stage for yet another round of strong to severe storms. The primary threat should be large damaging hail with very gusty winds and perhaps and isolated tornado or two mainly along and just ahead of the Pacific front mainly along and North of the I-10 Corridor.

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04192015 SPC day1probotlk_20150419_1300_hail_prt.gif

04192015 SPC day1probotlk_20150419_1300_wind_prt.gif

A benign pleasant weather pattern develops Monday into Tuesday before yet another strong Upper Low and its associated Western trough begins to organize. As we near late this coming work week, this developing upper low will once again taps a very noisy sub tropical jet spreading deep tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean as well as the Western Caribbean Sea and the Western Gulf of Mexico as a return flow becomes established. The Medium Range computer models have not resolved the finer details of the late week potential so our sensible weather forecast is subject to changes. As of this morning, the guidance suggests that strong to severe storms will again develop across the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico Thursday into Friday with another chance of a possible MCS developing Thursday night into Friday. The models diverge regarding the sensible weather next weekend. The GFS is a bit progressive suggesting another front will sweep across the Lone Star State Friday night before pulling up stationary along the Texas Gulf Coast into Louisiana. The European is not as fast with the Pacific front and suggests several days of potentially heavy rainfall may be possible.

04192015 00Z GFS f96.gif

04192015 00Z GFS f126.gif

04192015 00Z Euro f96.gif

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[srainhoutx]

04192015 mcd0379.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST AR...WESTERN LA...EAST TX INCLUDING THE
UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191852Z - 191945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 21Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK
EAST TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST AND WESTERN LA. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TOWARD THE ARKLATEX/SABINE VALLEY...WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD
AREA TO THE LOW 60S FURTHER NORTH. 18Z MESOANALYSIS AND FORECAST RAP
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CAPPING STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
SHOULD ERODE BY AROUND 20-21Z. ONCE THIS OCCURS...STRONG SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR/JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT AS STRONG AS
FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY REMAIN
SEMI-DISCRETE AT FIRST BEFORE TRANSITIONING TOWARD BOWING SEGMENTS.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35 KT WILL
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHERMORE...DCAPE VALUES AOA 1200 J/KG AND SOME DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR
COULD RESULT IN SOME STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LOW...MODEST LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THIS
AREA...WITH THE SHV VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATING 0-1KM SRH NEAR 100
M2/S2. AS SUCH...ANY STORM THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE COULD POSE A
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/19/2015


ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

[Katdaddy]

Another round looking likely later this afternoon and evening. Storm initiation has begun over Central TX and SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion. 80% chance that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued for SE TX shortly.

[srainhoutx]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued shortly.

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 81
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     230 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015
     
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     
     ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-057-061-073-081-091-099-103-109-133-
     139-200100-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0081.150419T1930Z-150420T0100Z/
     
     AR 
     .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     BRADLEY              CALHOUN             CLARK               
     CLEVELAND            COLUMBIA            DALLAS              
     HEMPSTEAD            HOWARD              LAFAYETTE           
     LITTLE RIVER         MILLER              NEVADA              
     OUACHITA             PIKE                SEVIER              
     UNION                
     
     
     LAC003-011-013-015-017-019-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-
     079-081-085-111-115-119-127-200100-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0081.150419T1930Z-150420T0100Z/
     
     LA 
     .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ALLEN                BEAUREGARD          BIENVILLE           
     BOSSIER              CADDO               CALCASIEU           
     CALDWELL             CLAIBORNE           DE SOTO             
     GRANT                JACKSON             LA SALLE            
     LINCOLN              NATCHITOCHES        OUACHITA            
     RAPIDES              RED RIVER           SABINE              
     UNION                VERNON              WEBSTER             
     WINN                 
     
     
     TXC005-015-021-037-041-051-067-071-073-089-149-183-185-199-201-
     203-225-241-245-285-287-291-313-315-339-347-351-361-365-373-401-
     403-405-407-419-455-457-471-473-477-200100-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0081.150419T1930Z-150420T0100Z/
     
     TX 
     .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ANGELINA             AUSTIN              BASTROP             
     BOWIE                BRAZOS              BURLESON            
     CASS                 CHAMBERS            CHEROKEE            
     COLORADO             FAYETTE             GREGG               
     GRIMES               HARDIN              HARRIS              
     HARRISON             HOUSTON             JASPER              
     JEFFERSON            LAVACA              LEE                 
     LIBERTY              MADISON             MARION              
     MONTGOMERY           NACOGDOCHES         NEWTON              
     ORANGE               PANOLA              POLK                
     RUSK                 SABINE              SAN AUGUSTINE       
     SAN JACINTO          SHELBY              TRINITY             
     TYLER                WALKER              WALLER              
     WASHINGTON           
     
     
     GMZ430-200100-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0081.150419T1930Z-150420T0100Z/
     
     CW 
     
     .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
     
     SABINE LAKE 
     
     ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...HGX...SHV...EWX...

[unome]

my empathy for those who have already flooded or have otherwise had damage, I was really hoping it would dry out so I could mow the hay...

https://www.facebook.com/NWSHouston

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/so ... e_loop.php

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CALDWELL TX-BASTROP TX-
324 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND WEST
CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 323 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED PEA-SIZE HAIL IN NIEDERWALD...OR
10 MILES NORTH OF LOCKHART...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.



LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOCKHART...MUSTANG RIDGE...NIEDERWALD...CEDAR CREEK...WYLDWOOD...
LYTTON SPRINGS...MENDOZA...DALE AND ST JOHN COLONY.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
439 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 439 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
MADISONVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADISONVILLE AND MIDWAY.

[srainhoutx]

04192015 mcd0382.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0445 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX...WRN/CNTRL/NRN
LA...SRN/ERN AR...FAR WRN MS...FAR WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81...

VALID 192145Z - 192345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM RISK CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 81. PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH. A
NEW WW MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MID-SOUTH.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG A SFC
FRONT ANALYZED FROM WRN AR TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THE AIR MASS E OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS IN MANY
AREAS BENEATH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...LOCALLY GREATER ACROSS PARTS OF E TX.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
AS STORMS SPREAD EWD. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO
EVOLVE INTO INTENSE QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...WITH CLOUD-LAYER MEAN FLOW POSSESSING A NOTABLE
BOUNDARY-ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT IN THE ARKLATEX TO THE ARKLAMISS...A
DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE MAY BE DOMINANT INTO THE EARLY
EVENING /AS IS BEING OBSERVED PRESENTLY PER RADAR LOOPS/ BEFORE
UPSCALE GROWTH/CELL INTERACTIONS OCCUR. CLOUD STREETS IN THIS REGION
PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MODESTLY ENHANCED...AND
THE SHV VWP SAMPLES A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. AS SUCH...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL
FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE ARKLAMISS...SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST
WARRANTING LOCALIZED TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE -- EFFECTIVELY UPGRADING
PORTIONS OF WW 81.

OTHERWISE...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS POSSIBLE FARTHER N ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH AS CONVECTION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX SPREADS
EWD WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE. SVR HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FARTHER S...LOCALIZED SPATIAL EXTENSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
81 MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY AS CU CONTINUES
TO BACKBUILD ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OFFER CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...THOUGH
WEAKER DEEPER ASCENT AND MODEST SFC CONVERGENCE RENDER LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION W/SW OF WW 81.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/19/2015


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
446 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 446 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WASHINGTON...OR 11 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HEMPSTEAD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...WASHINGTON...WALLER...PINE ISLAND AND
TODD MISSION.

[srainhoutx]

Nickel sized hail 3 mile E of Madisonville.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
450 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 449 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BURTON...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BRENHAM...AND MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRENHAM...SOMERVILLE...BURTON...LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM AND QUARRY.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

HOUSTON TX-MADISON TX-WALKER TX-
502 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON...NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND NORTH CENTRAL
WALKER COUNTIES...

AT 502 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST
OF MIDWAY...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF AUSTONIO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHWESTERN HOUSTON...NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND NORTH CENTRAL WALKER
COUNTIES.

[srainhoutx]

Storms intensifying in Northern Grime County. New Warning coming.