December: New Years Eve Outlook

[TxJohn]

Car has a very very thin layer of ice on it. It stopped drizzling though.

[TxJohn]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 080348
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
948 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET OVER
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BRYAN TO SEALY TO
COLUMBUS. THE KGRK RADAR AT 0330Z SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIZZLE WAS
PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN BRAZOS...MOST OF BURLESON...AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THE PRECIP AREA EXTENDS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS SEEN BY THE KEWX RADAR. THIS AREA APPEARED TO COINCIDE WITH THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 200 AND 300 MB JET. BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM...AN
ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAS SHOWN THAT THE FREEZING
LINE AT THE SURFACE HAS MAINLY STAYED THE SAME...GENERALLY FROM
JUST WEST OF MADISONVILLE TO BETWEEN BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION AND
BRENHAM...AND JUST WEST OF COLUMBUS.

GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS AND UPPER LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE AIR
MASS...THINK THAT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE
RAP13 ALSO KEEPS LIGHT QPF OVER THE WESTERN SET OF COUNTIES AT
LEAST THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM CST.

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR BRAZOS...
BURLESON...WASHINGTON...AUSTIN...AND COLORADO COUNTIES THROUGH 6
AM SUNDAY. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE ADVISORY EASTWARD IF THE
FREEZING LINE PUSHES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

[jasons2k]

Well after all that I never touched freezing here. And it looks like the much-hyped arctic blast this week won't be anything like 1983/89 at all, in fact we may stay above freezing again all week. I'm glad the plants get a break

[unome]

we lost some Monarch chrysalises but all our flowering plants still have blooms on them, definitely looking forward to the temp increasing & 60s in another week

[Portastorm]

Here's a couple of fun weather factoids from the Austin area:

* Yesterday's max temp of 31 degrees was the earliest (season wise) max temp below freezing in recorded history for KATT (Austin-Camp Mabry) and KAUS (Bergstrom airport)

* Both KAUS and KATT were at or below freezing for 38 consecutive hours (I can tell you that NO computer model or meteogram showed that happening!)

And, it looks like we may get a repeat of what we experienced last night coming Monday night/Tuesday morning:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1047 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

1047 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

LATE TONIGHT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOIST GULF AIR WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS
WILL BRING PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO ELMENDORF TO BIG
WELLS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS AREA SO
ICING IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM TOW TO BOERNE TO DIME BOX. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METRO AREA
AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR...NORTHEAST OF SAN ANTONIO. CURRENTLY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. HOWEVER...SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO FREEZING...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA TO HAVE LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

IMPACTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES...OVERPASSES
AND FLYOVERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

[Ptarmigan]

Wasn't there a long period of freezing temps in 84/85?

There were freezes in January and February 1985. December 1984 was quite warm, especially for Eastern US. December 1984 for Southeast Texas was quite warm. If December 1984 was not warm, the winter of 1984-1985 would of been one of the coldest on record.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_198 ... c_outbreak

January 1985 is 6th coldest January on record, while February 1985 is 7th coldest on record.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_jan
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_feb

It also snowed on January 2 and February 1 of that year.
http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

[cristina6871]

Are we too far out to see what Christmas might look like? Mom wants cold on Christmas.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Cold and cloudy weather will continue for much of the week as the pattern remains pretty much unchanged.

Secondary surge of cold high pressure from the north will arrive tonight with increasing north winds. Ahead of this boundary moisture continues to stream northward off the Gulf and upglide over the top of the cold dome at the surface. Luckily surface temperatures have crept upward with decreasing cold air advection in the past 24 hours and range from the upper 30’s to upper 40’s across the area….which has prevented a repeat of the icy conditions on the roadways W and N of Houston from Saturday night. Expect maybe a 4-5 degree of warming today from current values as drizzle and light rain develop.

Front will pass the area this evening brining areas north of I-10 back toward freezing tonight. Expect to see drizzle end prior to the onset of freezing temperatures, but any delay in the ending of the drizzle could again result in ice accumulation on bridges and overpasses mainly north of a line from College Station to Huntsville. For the first time since last Wednesday the sun may actually break out on Tuesday…but this is dependent on dry air mixing out the stubborn moisture layer trapped in the frontal inversion. Should see highs warm in the 50’s across the area Tuesday and Wednesday which is hot compared to the highs near freezing on Saturday.

Next storm system already spinning off the west coast will arrive into the state by late in the week. Coastal low situation develops offshore of the lower TX coast, but the latest guidance has trended drier. Expect to see increasing clouds again on Wednesday followed by cloudy, cold, and drizzle conditions Thursday. Better rain chances will arrive Friday as the storm system moves across the state. While temperatures will remain cold by TX standards they will be above freezing and after tonight there should be no additional P-type concerns across this area….all rain.

Note: College Station spent 41 hours at or below freezing during this cold air outbreak.  

 

 

 

 

[srainhoutx]

Are we too far out to see what Christmas might look like? Mom wants cold on Christmas.

Right now it looks very chilly.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Plotted the GFS Meteogram for Christmas week. Wow... I plotted CLL and it has College Station tanking to low 20s and it doesn't get out of the 20s a couple of days before Christmas.

Due to the nature of the cold front, I plotted Birmingham since the bulk of the arctic will move SE. Birmingham high and low on the 22nd is a Low of 8 and a High of 10.

[srainhoutx]

Plotted the GFS Meteogram for Christmas week. Wow... I plotted CLL and it has College Station tanking to low 20s and it doesn't get out of the 20s a couple of days before Christmas.

Due to the nature of the cold front, I plotted Birmingham since the bulk of the arctic will move SE. Birmingham high and low on the 22nd is a Low of 8 and a High of 10.

There are 'hints' of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event developing over Siberia/Eurasia. The longer range guidance may be sniffing out that event, if it happens.

[ticka1]

Plotted the GFS Meteogram for Christmas week. Wow... I plotted CLL and it has College Station tanking to low 20s and it doesn't get out of the 20s a couple of days before Christmas.

Due to the nature of the cold front, I plotted Birmingham since the bulk of the arctic will move SE. Birmingham high and low on the 22nd is a Low of 8 and a High of 10.

There are 'hints' of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event developing over Siberia/Eurasia. The longer range guidance may be sniffing out that event, if it happens.

what does SSW mean for us in se texas?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Depends on if it makes it over here. There have been SSW events where Europe takes the cold punch to the gut.

If it makes it over here and if you look at the 500mb pattern, we'd take it right up the backside. It could challenge 83/89 considering the snow pack to our north and consistent cold pushes.

[wxman57]

I'm hoping for a "SLTW" event. That's "Sudden Lower-Tropospheric Warming" event so I can warm up.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm hoping for a "SLTW" event. That's "Sudden Lower-Tropospheric Warming" event so I can warm up.

Just settle in big guy...

If we had to endure the record breaking HELL of Summer 2011, you can endure the icebox Winter of 2013-2014.

[cristina6871]

I'm hoping for a "SLTW" event. That's "Sudden Lower-Tropospheric Warming" event so I can warm up.

Just settle in big guy...

If we had to endure the record breaking HELL of Summer 2011, you can endure the icebox Winter of 2013-2014.

Like, Like, Like. I think it's about time our region had a decent cold spell - dare I say Winter! I've endured my share of summers sitting on the face of the sun.

[Ptarmigan]

Are we too far out to see what Christmas might look like? Mom wants cold on Christmas.

Right now it looks very chilly.

Negative East Pacific Oscillation/North Pacific Oscillation to me.

[Ptarmigan]

I'm hoping for a "SLTW" event. That's "Sudden Lower-Tropospheric Warming" event so I can warm up.

If you like hot weather, you can go to Australian Outback. It is hot this time of year.

[TxJohn]

Hoping for this to happen again. http://www.khou.com/weather/Houston-For ... 92154.html

I think this was the time we got ice instead of snow..all snow next time though. I don't wanna deal with ice. Ready for more arctic cold...

[Katdaddy]

Reinforcing cold front now offshore of Texas Coast. Gusty 20-25MPH wind overnight with gust up 35MPH along the immediate coast. Temps in the mid 30s to low 40s along the coast. The wind chills in the mid mid to upper 20s make for a very cold morning.
We will see sun today and tomorrow before the next trough develops out W of TX. The 60s by midweek but more rain chances.