September: Weekend Rain Chances. 1-2 Inches Possible C/N TX

[mckinne63]

Heavy rain and thunder in Stafford. I am safely tucked in the house for the day.

[srainhoutx]

Latest visible satellite imagery now showing the swirl that is 95L NE of Tampico heading NNW and a potent shortwave vort max heading ENE over West Central Texas. Also it appears the front is not moving as fast as some of the guidance have been suggesting as well.

[srainhoutx]

NWS Austin/San Antonio reporting 7.7 inches of rain in Gillespie County 12 miles NE of Harper. Roads are impassable in many locations in Gillespie County.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z euro is slower with the front and is suggesting a Coastal Low will be S of Galveston Sunday night into early Monday with rainfall continuing near the Coastal Counties.

[Andrew]

HOU NWS:

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
112 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

TXC021-031-053-055-209-287-453-491-202000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0090.130920T1812Z-130920T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAYS-LEE-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-CALDWELL-BURNET-BLANCO-BASTROP-
110 CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BASTROP COUNTY...
BURNET COUNTY...
HAYS COUNTY...
NORTHEASTERN BLANCO COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY...
TRAVIS COUNTY...
WESTERN LEE COUNTY...
WILLIAMSON COUNTY...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 110 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR...INCLUDING METRO AUSTIN. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WERE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS
WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES. THESE HEAVY RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS AND
LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE URBAN AREAS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE...ANDERSON
MILL...AUSTIN...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...BASTROP...BERTRAM...
BURNET...CEDAR PARK...DRIPPING SPRINGS...ELGIN AND GEORGETOWN.

[srainhoutx]

Updated Excessive Rainfall Outlook from the WPC:

[Rip76]

Can someone please post the HGX Noaa radio link?

I can never find it.

Thanks in advance.

[srainhoutx]

Can someone please post the HGX Noaa radio link?

I can never find it.

Thanks in advance.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=radio

[Portastorm]

Enjoying 30 solid minutes of pouring rain, lightning, and thunder here in downtown Austin and over most of Travis County. The usual suspect low-water crossings already starting to shut down. Love it!!

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
152 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT.

* AT 148 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL
TRAVIS COUNTY WITH RAINFALL RATES IN THE 2 AND A HALF TO THREE
INCH PER HOUR RANGE. LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS
WILL FLOOD IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURD THROUGHOUT THE WARNED AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...PFLUGERVILLE...TANGLEWOOD
FOREST...WINDEMERE...BEE CAVE...MANOR...MANSFIELD DAM...ROLLINGWOOD
AND WEST LAKE HILLS.

THE CITY OF AUSTIN HAD CLOSED A LOW WATER CROSSING DUE TO FLOODING
AT OLD BEE CAVES ROAD.

[srainhoutx]

WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion Update for the 12Z Suite of Guidance:

FRONTAL WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THERE IS A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE 12Z UKMET THE MOST NORTHEAST ON MONDAY, AND
THE 12Z NAM THE SLOWEST/MOST SOUTHWEST. WHILE THERE IS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE -- GEFS, CANADIAN, AND
ECMWF MEMBER -- SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE BEST CLUSTERING LIES
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS PIECES OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, CLOSEST TO
THE 12Z ECMWF. THE 12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
AS ITS SLOW MOVEMENT IS COUNTERBALANCED WITH THE GREATER THAN
AVERAGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD.

[srainhoutx]

Updated Day 1 to 3 QPF Totals:

[srainhoutx]

The 18Z NAM has slowed the progression of the frontal boundary into SE Texas and has increased the abundant tropical moisture across our area into SW Louisiana. NWS Lake Charles has issued a Flash Flood Watch for their Region and I suspect we will see Watches hoisted for portions of the Houston/Galveston area as well.

[mckinne63]

Where is the front now? Sun is shining now in Stafford, but seeing clouds moving in also. Want to see more rain. Even if dh has a golf game scheduled in the morning.

[Rip76]

Looking at radar, this appears to be a busy night for Jeff.

[djjordan]

Found this interesting from the NWS AFD this afternoon. It'll be interesting to see what does become of the circulation once the front interacts with it. Will it meander? or will the moisture get shunted Northeastward??? Lots of wait and see type questions.

FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT`LL MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST BEFORE SUNRISE &
THEN SLOW AS SFC CIRCULATION SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE GET ABSORBED
INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE COAST. ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF UP NEAR CLL DURING SAT MORNING BUT LOOK FOR PERIODS OF SHRA
TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY SAT ACROSS SE HALF OF
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WRAP AROUND FROM
CIRCULATION OFFSHORE.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIRMASS WILL INDEED FILTER INTO MOST OF THE AREA
SUN BRINGING CORRESPONDING COOLER WX. KEPT SOME CLOUDS, RAIN
CHANCES & HIGHER TEMPS ACROSS SE PARTS AND OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION
OF WHAT MAY OR MAY NOT BECOME A HYBRID SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OFF
THE TX COAST AND MEANDERS AROUND FOR A WHILE. 47

[Rip76]

So Houston will wait a bit longer?

[djmike]

Even though the coast saw some showers today, it certainly doesnt look like it got or will get what the QPF has shown with the highest amounts along the coast! Majority of todays rain has seemed to be CTX and ETX (north of Beaumont). Looking at radar, showers looks very limited along coast of all TX. Sure hope that changes as the front draws closer! Praying it draws moisture from manuel and gulf system as it stalls along the coast. It has rained off and on all day here in Beaumont, but certainly nothing like what the QPF has shown. Thoughts? Just dont want to lose our abundant chance!

[cisa]

It rained in Conroe most of the day. I got soaked running to my car. Home now in Porter and it is raining here too. I hope those who haven't seen much yet, will. We surely need it.