Wx Infinity Forums

Geesh, missing a really good chance for rain. Dark clouds, windy, etc. Not a drop here in Stafford.

I'm only the messenger

HOUSTON NWS DISCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1029 AM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE. PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF SPOTS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE ON THE DRY SIDE TODAY.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE ACTIVITY WEAKENING NEAR THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE...SO HAVE MADE SOME DOWNWARD POP ADJUSTMENTS TO AREA
FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. ALSO...SHAVED OFF SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGH TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
ANTICIPATED EXTRA CLOUD COVER. 42

I don't think I've ever seen so much moisture off the TX/LA coast just lined-up from west to east across the whole gulf, and as it tries to push onshore it's like hitting a brick wall.

Texas Pirate has given the reason why.....this is depressing, very depressing!!!!

Pouring on me here in West side of League City

Latest AVIATION DISCO Houston NWS
Snippet

ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
SOUTHERN LAKE CHARLES CWA BORDER AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST. A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
COAST MONDAY. GFS/ NAM/ ECMWF HAVE THE FEATURE MOVING INLAND A
TAD BEFORE 11Z WITH THE RAP BEING THE MOST PROGRESSIVE BRINGING
THE SHORTWAVE IN AROUND 3Z MONDAY.


Well, it IS raining very gently at the bay.
Y'all might get some, tomorrow .....
Its like I said "We here in SE TX have more depression than what's out in the GOM"
so frustrating..............

Can you believe this,we have the most beautiful complex of storms right off the coast and hardly any are coming onshore.Of all places that needs rain it's not the GOM.Oh heck i'm gonna need a drink.It's 5:00 oclock somewhere.

My part of the bay had some swirling mist that lasted about five minutes then it got breezy. Now it's just meh...but then again it's not 100 degrees with no wind so that is pretty great. I would hate to drag my sprinkler out but I'm thinking about it

As I pointed out yesterday...most models were keeping the heavy stuff offshore and that has been what was happening to our east with this feature...and today has been no different

Now tonight the meso models fire up activity very near the coast and in Galveston Bay so those south of I-10 probably stand a decent shot of some rains prior to sunrise on Monday...southern Harris, Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda Counties.

jeff wrote:As I pointed out yesterday...most models were keeping the heavy stuff offshore and that has been what was happening to our east with this feature...and today has been no different

Now tonight the meso models fire up activity very near the coast and in Galveston Bay so those south of I-10 probably stand a decent shot of some rains prior to sunrise on Monday...southern Harris, Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda Counties.

Will fort bend get any of that action.

sure looks like something else is going on

cperk wrote:

jeff wrote:As I pointed out yesterday...most models were keeping the heavy stuff offshore and that has been what was happening to our east with this feature...and today has been no different

Now tonight the meso models fire up activity very near the coast and in Galveston Bay so those south of I-10 probably stand a decent shot of some rains prior to sunrise on Monday...southern Harris, Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda Counties.

Will fort bend get any of that action.

I could see Fort Bend and Wharton getting in on the action. Very nice spin south of LCH and this should be the area that moves W and inland tonight with a new blow up of storms.

Sure is impressive looking on radar...but those scans are shooting well above the surface that far out.

Jeff what is keeping this system from moving onshore.

From HGX AFD...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SPREAD SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS COAST AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH. AS ANTICIPATED...ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF WATERS IS WEAKENING/DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE INLAND`S STRONGEST STORMS REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO
NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. PREVIOUS FORECASTS FROM THE
LAST FEW DAYS THAT HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO
OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH THE NEXT SET OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE COAST AND JUST
OFFSHORE. ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INLAND DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...BUT THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED
TO BE NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. ANOTHER NOT SO HOT LATE AUGUST
DAY IS EXPECTED UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY. TUESDAY
SHOULD BE OUR LAST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM
WORKS ITS WAY TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
PATTERN CHANGE TRANSLATES TO BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE AUGUST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. 42
&&

THIS
PATTERN CHANGE TRANSLATES TO BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE AUGUST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. 42
&&
Hey guys. Are they talking about the pattern change that was being discussed last week regarding the weather being wetter? I am getting confused.

That's quite a spin there south of LC! Anyone else notice that? Wouldn't that be something if it got its act together and became something right before moving inland to the Texas coast and we all ended up with 5"-8" from this storm....Ok ok...wishful thinking

My mom lives in Friendswood and said they have had some good downpours all day long. She said Alvin has had some nice showers too

I noticed the spin too.

daywalkingrunner wrote:THIS
PATTERN CHANGE TRANSLATES TO BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE AUGUST
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. 42
&&
Hey guys. Are they talking about the pattern change that was being discussed last week regarding the weather being wetter? I am getting confused.

No. Temps back in mid to upper 90s as we close out August with occasional pop up thunderstorms from the sea breeze.
Hopefully after Labor Day (according to "models") we can begin to have average temps or even a bit below as we ring in September. We'll see...

cperk wrote:Jeff what is keeping this system from moving onshore.

The moisture axis is just taking its time...but it is also fighting drying from the north. Additionally, tropical air masses like and tend to focus their convection over the water in the early morning hours and this pattern tends to "rob" inland areas of much rainfall unless there is a defined surface circulation that moves inland. The reason behind that is that the early morning cirrus blow off tends to limit daytime heating below the trigger temperature and the nearshore activity is slow moving and remains near the coast or offshore.

Activity is moving a bit quicker to the WNW/W than earlier today so a decent shot tonight S of I-10 for some good rains...closer to the coast the better. Seems to be a favored area from San Leon to about Pearland where cells continue to line up.

So apparently what I have to do is bring out my backyard TV to watch some football (I mean see how Colt plays), then it will rain.