May: Slight Risk Severe Storms Thursday To End The Month

[Portastorm]

For those of us in the Austin metro area, it looks like (based on radar trends) our "fun"derstorms will be hitting between 12 noon and 1 p.m.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

100 POPS just went up for my neck of the woods.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH...TN...AND LOWER MS
VALLEY SWWD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN TX...

...OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY IS FORECAST
TO AMPLIFY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DIGS SEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
SERN MO TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NWD...WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SWRN TX WILL MOVE SEWD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S IN LA
RESULTING IN MUCAPE TO 3000 J/KG.

STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER SERN TX/SWRN LA AS THE SRN PART OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM ERN TX...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IN PARTS OF LA IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED AND QUITE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. SUFFICIENT SHEAR /25-30 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ IS
PRESENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER NORTH INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF TWO MCV/S...ONE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AR...AND THE OTHER INDICATED OVER EAST CENTRAL MO. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FROM SRN IND/FAR SRN IL INTO THE MID SOUTH WILL PROMOTE STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING AND CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.
AS THE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AND SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD WITH
ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE LINES FORMING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES
/MAINLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT/ THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...CENTRAL/SRN TX...

COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES/GRAVITY WAVE-LIKE FEATURES PROPAGATING SWD IN ADVANCE OF
THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. ELEVATED STORMS ARE SPREADING SWD INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL TX AND MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF SUBSEQUENT STORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORM CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...SRN CO/NRN NM...

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL YIELD A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITHIN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE
AUGMENTED BY THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE...GIVING RISE TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP
NWLY SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

..WEISS/HURLBUT.. 05/31/2012

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1127 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

TXZ214-238-311715-
GALVESTON TX-CHAMBERS TX-
1127 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GALVESTON AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

AT 1118 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANAHUAC...OR
14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOME...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN WALLISVILLE AND WINNIE...WINNIE...ANAHUAC AND
STOWELL.

[srainhoutx]

Outflow boundary just passed my location and now watching to the W as storms begin to increase with the daytime heating...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
101 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1259 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR KATY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING
A FUNNEL AT GRAND PARKWAY AT FM 1253. TAKE COVER NOW.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MISSION BEND AND PECAN GROVE.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
110 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

TXZ210-211-226-227-311900-
FORT BEND TX-AUSTIN TX-WHARTON TX-COLORADO TX-
110 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN...NORTH CENTRAL WHARTON AND EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 109 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF EAGLE LAKE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM
IS ALSO SHOWING SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ROTATION THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNING.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGLE LAKE AND WALLIS.

[srainhoutx]

A lot of rotation within these storms this afternoon...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
132 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 124 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS AND WINDS 34 KNOTS
OR GREATER...LOCATED OVER GALVESTON ISLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 KNOTS.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC015-089-157-481-311845-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0108.120531T1822Z-120531T1845Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
122 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN TEXAS...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTY IN TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN TEXAS...
WHARTON COUNTY IN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 112 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EAGLE LAKE...AND
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHARTON...EAST BERNARD...WALLIS...SIMONTON...KENDLETON AND ORCHARD.

[srainhoutx]

Nice rotation on this warned cell...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC039-157-481-311915-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0109.120531T1842Z-120531T1915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
142 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN TEXAS...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN TEXAS...
WHARTON COUNTY IN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 130 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARNED COUNTIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE
STRONGEST STORM IS CURRENTLY NEAR ROSENBERG...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. THERE WAS SOME WEAK ROTATION IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
STORM. SEVERE STORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOS WITH LITTLE WARNING.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...WEST COLUMBIA...NEEDVILLE...BOLING-IAGO...
PLEAK...
BEASLEY AND THOMPSONS.

[jasons2k]

I can see it already, my Bermuda Grass is going to miss out on this. Moring storms just missed to the East, these formed up to the West when already at latitude of my lawn and are moving Southeast.

I have the same fear. It broke-up before my house and then reformed after the outlfow passed. I hope we have a round II this afternoon/tonight but I'm not holding my breath.

[txflagwaver]

Looks like nuttin here

[MESOMAN]

For the 4th straight event, no rain at my house. Having to water the yard every 3 days.
I'm starting to feel the drought of 2012 coming on at least in the Spring area.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC039-321-312030-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0110.120531T1928Z-120531T2030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
228 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 218 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF WEST
COLUMBIA...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SWEENY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST COLUMBIA...SWEENY...BRAZORIA...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...
JONES CREEK...SARGENT AND VAN VLECK.

[sleetstorm]

Where is the cold front currently?

[jasons2k]

For the 4th straight event, no rain at my house. Having to water the yard every 3 days.
I'm starting to feel the drought of 2012 coming on at least in the Spring area.

I'm in the same boat where I am (Rayford). I keep getting nothing and other places like League City need small watercraft to navigate the streets!

Non-irriagated lawns are turning brown, leaves are wilting (esp. on shrubs and small trees), and I even noticed the dreaded 'yellow tinge' on some pine trees yesterday. Please not again, dear God, please not again! I don't think I can take another drought.

[srainhoutx]

Where is the cold front currently?

The 'cool front' is currently just S of the I-35 Corridor in Central Texas

[sleetstorm]

Nearly all of Arkansas is in a Moderate Drought and almost half of Harris County is in an Abnormally Dry Drought.

[jasons2k]

I see the boundary on GR2 but I don't see anything outside but cirrus.

I checked my rain gauge and was suprised to find something in it!

A pine needle and some dust.