April: Warm & Muggy To End The Month. Showers Monday?

[srainhoutx]

Cool breezy evening here in NW Harris County. Drier air is working it's way across the area. I had around 1/2 inch up here. The yard is grateful...

Edit to add guidance suggests a rather deep East Coast trough establishing. NW flow should provide for pleasant Mid April weather. We'll see..

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if it rains again tonight.

Code: Select all

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST HAS MOVED EAST AND OFF THE
COAST. ONLY REMAINING SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR SHOWS LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE S PLAINS AND RED RIVER. TROUGH AXIS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH SE TX TUE MORNING WITH PRECIP ENDING. ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
TO JUST 30 PERCENT AS LATEST RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS AT BEST AND
ELEVATED. MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP HIT THE GROUND. THERE ARE SOME
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES W/SW OF COLORADO COUNTY SO ISO THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MIN TEMPS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED DOWN A DEGREE OR
TWO ALONG THE COAST WHERE RAIN COOLED AIR REMAINS. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[jasons2k]

I hope we see something on Friday. I got a whopping .48". Pretty much a bust for me. Normally I'd be happy with that but I just laid down 5 yards of compost and a whole pallette of fresh sod on Saturday. I was hoping for the real deal, not some spotty showers...

[srainhoutx]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF FROM THE PARENT TROUGH ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX BY LATE IN THE DAY...SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS ERN TX AND
INTO LA OVERNIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...A STRONG JET
STREAK WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AFFECTING ERN TX INTO LA AND
AR. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SWD...EXTENDING FROM
NEAR LAREDO TX TO CNTRL LA BY 00Z.

TO THE N...THE NRN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FROM ERN ONTARIO SWWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY.

...SRN AND ERN TX...WRN LA...SRN AR...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY FRI ALONG
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. CAPPING WILL EXIST FARTHER S AWAY FROM THE
FRONT INITIALLY...BUT STRONG LIFT...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN TX WITH
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE. SHEAR PROFILES OVER ERN TX AND INTO AR
AND LA LOOK TO BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. FARTHER SW...LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...BUT CAPPING WILL REMAIN FOR
A LONGER DURATION AND FORCING ESPECIALLY FOR DEEP S TX MAY BE
LIMITED. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT A SMALL SLIGHT FOR THE BEST
COMBINATION OF FORCING AND PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE. MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IT IS UNCLEAR HOW STORMS WILL EVOLVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN IN A POST FRONTAL
REGIME...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN JUST N OF THE FRONT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

...NRN KY INTO OH...
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO EXIST ALONG THE COLD
FRONT EARLY FRI ACROSS IL AND IND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HEATING WILL
OCCUR AND WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 50S F WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. DEEP
SWLY FLOW...INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KT IN THE MIDLEVELS SHOULD HELP
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR. THE THREAT SHOULD MAINLY BE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND WANE AFTER SUNSET.

..JEWELL.. 04/19/2012

[MontgomeryCoWx]

for once, I'm okay with missing the rain... the wife and I are headed up to CS for A&M/Baylor Baseball and Spring Scrimmage.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/SERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA
COMPRISING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO SRN
PLAINS. TWO MORE PROMINENT IMPULSES OVER CNTRL NEB AND WRN TX WILL
PROGRESS SEWD...CONTRIBUTING TO INTENSIFICATION OF SRN SEGMENT OF
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS
TONIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SWRN LOWER MI
WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE
SWRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE MORE SEWD THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL/SRN TX.

...SRN/SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

12Z BRO/CRP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM EML ATOP MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH LOWEST
100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 10-13 G/KG. THIS MOISTURE AND MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ACROSS SRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A BELT OF STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM
/LIKELY MANIFEST AS RECENT BURST OF ELEVATED TSTMS E OF SJT/ WILL
SPREAD SEWD TODAY...FOSTERING SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INVOF
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR LATER TODAY
BY THE EXIT REGION OF A 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPING
SEWD. GIVEN THE MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY FORECAST...THE SETUP
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...NERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...

ONGOING ELEVATED TSTMS OVER THE ARKLATEX APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKER MIDLEVEL IMPULSE PRECEDING THE STRONGER WRN TX
SYSTEM...AND ROOTED WITHIN A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PER
12Z FWD SOUNDING. WHILE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS EWD
TODAY...A COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS AND WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR
WITH EWD EXTENT ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

..MEAD/GUYER.. 04/20/2012

[jasons2k]

Figures - the overnight AFD is about as "Debbie Downer" as it gets:

FSCT POPS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY ARE PROBLEMATIC AND DON`T HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF FCST
CONFIDENCE. FCST SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVED AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
MONSTER CAP OVER MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR.
EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BUST THE CAP AND ALLOW THE INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE TO
BE TAPPED INTO IN ADDITION TO WHAT THE STORM SYSTEM WAS BRINGING
ALONG ITSELF. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL RUNS AREN`T SHOWING NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE SFC CONVERGENCE...ESP IF THE PREFRONTAL TROF MOVES THRU
AS FAST AS SUGGESTED. THAT BEING SAID...UPPER DYNAMICS STILL
SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOME STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD ANY
DEVELOP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LFQ OF JET NOSING IN. GFS...NAM12...ECMWF...AND NCEP 4KM WRF ALL
SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THEM
SOME RESPECT. HOWEVER...WITH WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED I
TEND TO FAVOR THE OUTLYING TX TECH 3KM WRF WHICH SHOWS ONLY
PERIODIC THIN BANDS OF SCT SHRA/TSTMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ITSELF.
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS/QPF FROM WHAT WE HAD...BUT PROBABLY
NOT AS MUCH AS I`D REALLY LIKE TO DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

[srainhoutx]

Potentially more depressing, but silver lining is I'm just an amateur and am probably looking at it wrong- Euro seems to never get here w/ next big West Coast trough, barely moves Day 9 to Day 10, and big trough/ridge/trough looks to my untrained eyes like an Omega block in the making.

We'll have to watch under that ridge toward the Western Caribbean. There is a hint of an easterly wave trekking beneath that ridge. We will see. It is getting close to time when eyes will turn toward the tropics...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z WRF/NMM is going bonkers on showers/storms across the area. Maybe the cap will break as the front dives SE from Central TX this afternoon. We will see.

[Ptarmigan]

I always notice that capping in Texas is a problem in the spring. It didn't seem much of a problem earlier this year.

[Ptarmigan]

Potentially more depressing, but silver lining is I'm just an amateur and am probably looking at it wrong- Euro seems to never get here w/ next big West Coast trough, barely moves Day 9 to Day 10, and big trough/ridge/trough looks to my untrained eyes like an Omega block in the making.

Blocks, including Omega blocks can causes freezes and droughts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Block_(meteorology)

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1032 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...
TRINITY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1030 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES EAST OF CROCKETT...
AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KENNARD.

[srainhoutx]

TXZ163-164-201645-
TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-
1058 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHEASTERN TRINITY AND EAST CENTRAL
HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

AT 1052 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTH OF GROVETON...OR 19
MILES EAST OF CROCKETT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
TRINITY AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTIES

[jasons2k]

I dunno guys - the prefrontal trough is moving so fast I'm still half-empty. I just don't know if we have enough time.

[srainhoutx]

I dunno guys - the prefrontal trough is moving so fast I'm still half-empty. I just don't know if we have enough time.

Not sure if it will make a lot of difference but there is a rather potent mid level vort approaching the southern end of the boundary near Uvalde. The SPC has expanded the Slight Risk to include all of the Houston Metro area as well. We will see.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE TEXAS COAST TO WRN
LA...

...TX COASTAL PLAIN TO WRN LA...
AS LARGE SCALE FLOW CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION FEATURING A
BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST...DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS WILL MOVE ACROSS TX AND THE MS VALLEY REGIONS TODAY. THE
STRONGER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE TX COAST TODAY /COINCIDENT WITH COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE/...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE OPEN GULF THROUGH
TOMORROW AND CONTRIBUTING TO NERN GULF CYCLOGENESIS INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

WARM AND SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS WAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS ERN TX THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 70S...DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S F...AND PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH. THIS WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS WAS TOPPED BY A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM IN THE
850-500MB LAYER PER MORNING SOUNDINGS. WHILE AREAS OF CLOUD COVER
WILL TEND TO INHIBIT STRONGER INSOLATION AND GREATER AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION...DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IN CONCERT WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AIDING IN GRADUAL REDUCTION IN INHIBITION...SHOULD SUPPORT
SBCAPE CLIMBING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON.

UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WAS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS WEST TX. ASCENT/DPVA WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THE ADVANCING
FRONT. INITIALLY...STORMS WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER SIMILAR TO ONGOING ACTIVITY IN NERN TX AND POSE SOME THREAT OF
HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. WITH TIME...INHIBITION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY OVERCOME SO THAT PARCELS WITH ORIGINS IN THE WARM/MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE INGESTED INTO DEVELOPING/EVOLVING CONVECTION.
AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ROBUST. AND...POTENTIAL FOR STORM-SCALE AND MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY OFFSET SOMEWHAT LIMITED BULK SHEAR TO
CONTRIBUTE TO MULITCELL AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES.
STORM-SCALE MODEL SIMULATIONS DEPICT THE EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN QLCS
CROSSING MUCH OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. LARGE
HAIL AND SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
EXPECT THAT SRN SEGMENTS OF THIS ACTIVITY...GENERALLY S OF
CRP/VCT...WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND
BACKED SURFACE FLOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF PERSISTENT MESOCYCLONES. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE
INTO S TX...TORNADO AND VERY LARGER HAIL THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED
HERE.
..CARBIN/ROGERS.. 04/20/2012

[srainhoutx]

New MD (meso discussion) coming in from the SPC:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...WRN LA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201735Z - 202000Z

ELEVATED CONVECTION BEARING HAIL RISK HAS INCREASED IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS E TX AND SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN LA
WITH CONTINUED/SPORADIC RISK OF SVR HAIL. POTENTIAL IS INCREASING
FOR MORE ORGANIZED/SFC-BASED TSTMS FARTHER SW ACROSS MID-UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN...WITH RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCNL LARGE HAIL.

16Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SFC COLD FRONT FROM SWRN AR AND NE TX
SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX BETWEEN ACT-CLL...JUST S HDO...THEN RIO
GRANDE VALLEY BETWEEN DRT AND EAGLE PASS. SEPARATE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT LINE WAS DRAWN FROM SAT AREA SSWWD ACROSS LRD TO NEAR MMMY.
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD...IMPINGING ON BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL
BE DESTABILIZING AND WEAKENING CINH WITH TIME. MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AND OVERLAID VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOW WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL OK...TX HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY
NEAR DRT. AS RELATED PLUME OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS ESEWD OVER
DISCUSSION AREA...AND AS POCKETS OF RELATIVELY STG SFC DIABATIC
HEATING CONTINUE...INITIALLY STG CAPPING WILL ERODE RAPIDLY. THIS
WILL LEAVE BOUNDARY LAYER PRONE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE
GROWTH OF TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG COLD FRONT...BUT PERHAPS INVOF
LOCALIZED SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAXIMA AS WELL. RESULTANT
STEEPENING OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES...JUXTAPOSED WITH SFC DEW
POINTS MAINLY MID-60S F...YIELD MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG IN MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK OVER MOST OF DISCUSSION AREA...DUE TO
STG VEERING/BACKING PROFILE IN LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS AND LACK OF MORE
ROBUST BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS INLAND. THIS SHOULD REMAIN TRUE OVER
MID-UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN...THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN AREA OF DEEP S TX TO BE COVERED IN
SEPARATE MCD LATER. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALSO WILL BE STRONGER FOR
CONVECTION BEHIND SFC FRONT. CLUSTERED AND LINEAR STORM MODES
APPEAR MOST PROBABLE...WITH GREATER WIND THREAT ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT
AND HAIL RISK WITH CONVECTION ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT.

..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

[Katdaddy]

Severe Thuderstorm Watch just issued until 8PM. Product still being rolled out at the SPV.

Code: Select all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 184
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     100 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012
     
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     
     LAC003-011-019-023-043-053-069-079-085-115-127-210100-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0184.120420T1800Z-120421T0100Z/
     
     LA 
     .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ALLEN                BEAUREGARD          CALCASIEU           
     CAMERON              GRANT               JEFFERSON DAVIS     
     NATCHITOCHES         RAPIDES             SABINE              
     VERNON               WINN                
     
     
     TXC007-015-021-025-039-041-051-055-057-071-089-123-149-157-167-
     175-177-185-187-199-201-209-225-239-241-245-255-285-287-291-313-
     321-339-351-361-373-391-403-405-407-419-455-457-469-471-473-477-
     481-493-210100-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0184.120420T1800Z-120421T0100Z/
     
     TX 
     .    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
     
     ARANSAS              AUSTIN              BASTROP             
     BEE                  BRAZORIA            BRAZOS              
     BURLESON             CALDWELL            CALHOUN             
     CHAMBERS             COLORADO            DEWITT              
     FAYETTE              FORT BEND           GALVESTON           
     GOLIAD               GONZALES            GRIMES              
     GUADALUPE            HARDIN              HARRIS              
     HAYS                 HOUSTON             JACKSON             
     JASPER               JEFFERSON           KARNES              
     LAVACA               LEE                 LIBERTY             
     MADISON              MATAGORDA           MONTGOMERY          
     NEWTON               ORANGE              POLK                
     REFUGIO              SABINE              SAN AUGUSTINE       
     SAN JACINTO          SHELBY              TRINITY             
     TYLER                VICTORIA            WALKER              
     WALLER               WASHINGTON          WHARTON             
     WILSON               
     
     
     GMZ235-255-330-335-350-355-430-432-450-210100-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0184.120420T1800Z-120421T0100Z/
     
     CW 
     
     .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
     
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O’CONNOR 
     
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM 
     
     MATAGORDA BAY 
     
     GALVESTON BAY 
     
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL TX OUT 20
     NM 
     
     COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM 
     
     SABINE LAKE 
     
     CALCASIEU LAKE 
     
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM 
     
     ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...SHV...

[Katdaddy]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BEEVILLE TEXAS TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT
POLK LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE MUCH OF PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS
IS CURRENTLY CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION...LATEST OBJECTIVE
DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS CAP IS WEAKENING. FURTHER WEAKENING APPEARS
LIKELY AS FRONT SURGES INTO THE REGION AND AIDS IN LIFTING A
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 500 J/KG IN
THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...TO OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF
SCNTRL TX. RESULTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY
VIGOROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SUPPORTIVE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...MULTICELL STORM COVERAGE...BECOMING
MARGINALLY ORGANIZED ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AN UPTICK IN LARGE HAIL AND SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND
EVENTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.

[jasons2k]

Radar looks good now. I was just using reverse psychology earlier

[srainhoutx]

Radar looks good now. I waws just using reverse psychology earlier

And it worked well. Maybe we'll get some rain for Kludge's birthday...