February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Andrew]

ULL still seems to be dropping south and even farther south than the Euro and other models show:

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html

[Rip76]

Should I not go over the beltway bridge then?

[jdman]

Jeff, parameters still coming together like you thought early this morning? Sticking by your projections?

[ajurcat]

ULL still seems to be dropping south and even farther south than the Euro and other models show:

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html

So what does that mean for us with it going further south?

[kyzsl51]

Hello! I have been reading this forum for over 3 years now and I finally registered today! I have a quick question for you guys if you would help me out. How accurate is weatherbug? Ive noticed that temperatures are generally colder than what is being reported by the NWS or weather.com

[helloitsb]

is our moisture even on shore yet? I don't know why everone is calling bust?

[tireman4]

Jeff, parameters still coming together like you thought early this morning? Sticking by your projections?

Wasn't there supposed to be a special 1 pm e-mail. I love reading those...

Only to those folks who are optimistic...... Just joking Ed....

[Andrew]

Everyone we need to understand that this is not the event that is supposed to bring the wintry percip. That is coming after midnight when the low heads east. All the moisture that looks like it is too far to the south will begin to head north as the ULL gets closer. Until then don't expect much so please don't say this is a bust when it hasn't even began.

[TexasBreeze]

I certainly dont see northern harris county recieving 3 to 5 inches of snow... the moisture is east

correct me if im wrong...

I'm about 3/4 glass full on this snow actually materializing everywhere in SE TX at some point tonight (as ED would put it). I don't buy seeing anything more than 2 inches though around my area, but who knows. The low hasn't moved east enough yet to pull in much low level gulf moisture inland. That comes tonight. Like Andrew just said. The moisture now is from the Pacific jet overhead.

[MRG93415]

Everyone we need to understand that this is not the event that is supposed to bring the wintry percip. That is coming after midnight when the low heads east. All the moisture that looks like it is too far to the south will begin to head north as the ULL gets closer. Until then don't expect much so please don't say this is a bust when it hasn't even began.

Thank you Andrew!!!!!

[Texashawk]

Really, for those of you crying bust, please re-read the actual text of the Winter Storm Warning. Carefully.

[helloitsb]

Everyone we need to understand that this is not the event that is supposed to bring the wintry percip. That is coming after midnight when the low heads east. All the moisture that looks like it is too far to the south will begin to head north as the ULL gets closer. Until then don't expect much so please don't say this is a bust when it hasn't even began.

thank you and I wasn't calling a bust I was saying why are others? People need to calm down

[Andrew]

Everyone we need to understand that this is not the event that is supposed to bring the wintry percip. That is coming after midnight when the low heads east. All the moisture that looks like it is too far to the south will begin to head north as the ULL gets closer. Until then don't expect much so please don't say this is a bust when it hasn't even began.

thank you and I wasn't calling a bust I was saying why are others? People need to calm down

I wasn't referring to anyone when I made this post. It was just a general comment to the public.

[jeff]

Jeff, parameters still coming together like you thought early this morning? Sticking by your projections?

I might be a touch high on the amounts, but not by much will hold the widespread 1-3 inches with iso 4-5 possible. No point in changing now...if I am wrong, then I am wrong

[ticka1]

ULL still seems to be dropping south and even farther south than the Euro and other models show:

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html

translation please.

[tireman4]

Jeff, parameters still coming together like you thought early this morning? Sticking by your projections?

I might be a touch high on the amounts, but not by much will hold the widespread 1-3 inches with iso 4-5 possible. No point in changing now...if I am wrong, then I am wrong

Stick to your guns Jeff. We need you to.

[ticka1]

1:00 p.m. update from Jeff Lindner:

Starting to get reports of sleet over Galveston and Brazoria Counties.



WFO has been reporting sleet along with Clute mixing with rain at times.



Appears radar echoes of at least 20-25dbz are being required for precip. to reach the ground. Radar continues to slowly fill in and this will continue to moisten the low levels allowing more widespread precip to start reaching the ground over the next 3-4 hours.



Temperatures where the sleet is falling range from 32 to 34 degrees suggesting most is melting, however with very dry dewpoints at the surface these temperatures will begin to fall and may fall to or below freezing in the areas where precip is reaching the ground.



Still looks like onset of more widespread precip. in the 400-600pm time period.

[ticka1]

Anyone heard if the Fred Hartman bridge is about to be closed?

[Andrew]

ULL still seems to be dropping south and even farther south than the Euro and other models show:

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html

translation please.

It is our "wintry weather" maker and closer it gets more moisture we can get.

[rnmm]

Not trying to go "off topic" just thought I would post in case someone needs to know and has not heard that Texas City ISD and La Marque ISD have now canceled school for tomorrow.