November: Cool & Dry To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

A chilly start this morning before the warm up begins this weekend. Currently sitting at 40F here in NW Harris County with some upper 30's noted in N and NE cold spots. It looks like clouds and streamer showers will be the theme moving into Saturday night/Sunday as the area looks capped. The best shot at rain chances appears to be Tuesday with the Upper Disturbance/trough passing from W to E, although this feature will be further N than the last one so severe weather chance look more favorable in N Central TX and S OK and the SPC has that area pegged in their day 4 discussions...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2011

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ALEUTIANS...DISCUSSED IN DAY-3
OUTLOOK...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS AZ/NWRN MEX EARLY
DAY-4...ROUGHLY 21/12Z-21/18Z TIME FRAME. DESPITE SOME
STRENGTH/TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...PROGS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
MID-LATE DAY-4. TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NM AND CHIHUAHUA AROUND
22/00Z THEN EXTEND FROM OK TO FAR W TX BY 22/12Z. RESULTANT SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS FCST ALONG STALLED FRONT...MOVING NEWD OVER
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL TX AND PERHAPS SERN OK. RETURN OF MID-60S SFC DEW
POINTS BENEATH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR CONCENTRATION OF SVR NEAR THAT FRONT AND CYCLONE TRACK. SVR
AREA IS KEPT...BUT SHIFTED EWD IN DEFERENCE TO FASTER CONSENSUS
TIMING OF FEATURES COMPARED TO PRIOR GUIDANCE.

BY DAY-5/22ND-23RD...DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED WITH THIS SYSTEM
BETWEEN SPECTRAL/ECMWF...AND AMONGST MREF MEMBERS. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ATTM REGARDING BOTH PHASE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF
MID-UPPER WAVE...AND RESULTANT POSITIONING/STRENGTH OF FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH SOME PORTION OF
MID-SOUTH/DELTA/TN VALLEY REGIONS PROBABLY WILL NEED AT LEAST
15%/SLGT-RISK AREA EVENTUALLY...IT IS TOO SOON TO ASSIGN
UNCONDITIONAL 30% D5 LINE ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 11/18/2011

[srainhoutx]

Would anyone care to chime in on the possible weather for next week in central/eastern Tennessee? We are heading there to visit in laws....thanks

I though I would update this for snowman65 since they are traveling for Thanksgiving...

[srainhoutx]

There has been some chatter of a pattern change beyond the Thanksgiving time frame. The ensembles are suggesting the Alaska vortex weakening and shifting over time and some suggestions of a weak +PNA regime becoming established. There are also some hints of rising heights near Greenland, suggesting a bit of a blocking pattern. This would tend to pop some ridging in the W. The big question is will this be a transient pattern or just a brief flip from what we have seen? There has been a lot of cold air building across Alaska under the PV anomaly, but will the pattern permit that cold to transport S as the Ridge builds? A lot of questions remain, but at least it's something to monitor has we head beyond next week and transition into December.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

After a cold morning across the area, much warmer conditions will be place this weekend into the middle of next week along with additional chances for rainfall.

Cold surface high NE of the region this morning did not produce calm winds overnight as winds have already swung around to the E/SE at 5-10mph and so temperatures have only fallen into the upper 30’s and low 40’s. As this high moves east today, winds will turn to the SE and the return of moisture will be underway. Expect a deck of clouds to develop and begin to push inland later today with skies going mostly cloudy this evening. Humidity will increase overnight along with lower level clouds and by late Saturday a few showers may even develop especially west of I-45. Slightly better chances of rainfall look possible on Sunday as a weak short wave crosses the area along with warm air advection and increasing Gulf moisture. Air mass actually starts to become unstable Sunday afternoon with LI’s of -2 to -4 and trigger temperatures in the low 80’s so incoming streamer showers off the Gulf Saturday night may be able to grow into heavier convective showers or even a thunderstorm or two on Sunday. For now will throw in 30% across the entire area for Sunday, but these chances may need to be raised on Saturday.

Long wave trough developing over the western US late this weekend will help expand the downstream sub-tropical ridge over the Gulf of Mexico into TX Monday (especially the coastal sections) helping to lower rains chances although warm and humid conditions will prevail. Trough and its associated cold front will move eastward into TX starting late Monday and slowly move across the state. Moisture values increase to very high levels (PWS 1.8-2.0 inches) next Tuesday pointing strongly toward an excessive rainfall potential over the upper TX coastal plain and parts of SE TX where a slow moving frontal boundary will be found. These moisture values are nearly 200% of mid-late November standards and with a slow moving boundary in place training excessive rainfall will be possible. Severe threat looks more marginal with this system than the last system, so only a few isolated severe reports are expected.

Storm system should clear SE TX by Wednesday with improving conditions for the holiday part of next week into next weekend. Temperatures should be seasonal (40’s to 70’s) under mostly clear skies.

Note: Record breaking cold air has built into Alaska this week with lows of -40 to -50 below zero in much of the interior part of the state. To this point there has been no favorable upper air delivery pattern of this air southward into the US, but long range models have been and continue to hint at the potential for a significant cold air intrusion into the US just beyond the Thanksgiving time period. When that time arrives, will have to see if this bitter cold air mass is still lurking over Alaska.

[ejburas]

About to head out the door and off to Colorado! Hoping to see a bit of snow while up there, but the cold will be nice too. I'll be back on Wednesday.

[wxman57]

About to head out the door and off to Colorado! Hoping to see a bit of snow while up there, but the cold will be nice too. I'll be back on Wednesday.

I don't see any significant snow event there through Wednesday. Could be a few inches over the weekend as a weak disturbance passes.

[srainhoutx]

The models are in agreement at this point of a possible heavy rainfall event next Tuesday. While the finer details are still to be determined, a return flow off the Gulf is now established and moisture along with warmer, more humid weather will increase this weekend through Monday before the rain chances increase. Tuesday will be the day to watch, as of now. Looking a bit further out, guidance suggests a bit stronger upper disturbance/trough diving S late next week, but that is way out in model world.

[wxman57]

Yep, we're on a Tuesday evening rainfall/Wednesday morning frontal passage schedule now. Thanksgiving looks dry, but look for a rapid return to onshore flow on Friday and rain for the Saturday after Thanksgiving.

[Belmer]

im very angry
SO ALL WE GET IS ONE CLEAR COOL DAY ON THANKSGIVING??? BUT A RAPID ONSHORE FLOW RETURN?
THATS LOUSY AND PATHETIC.
WHY IS THE SE WINDS RETURNING SO QUICKLY AFTER THESE WEAK FRONTS/ WHATS THE DEAL. WHY CANT THE NORTH WINDS LAST LONGER THAN A DAY??? THIS IS GETTING TO BE RIDICULOUS.
WE NEED LONGER LASTING COOL WEATHER AND NEED IT NOW

The only suggestion I have for you is to move up north if you enjoy the cold weather as bad as it sounds. This is Houston, and this is Houston weather. It will be like this every year. This is the transition from fall to winter!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues the trend suggesting showers/storms on Tuesday and as discussed in another thread concerning some party plans for Thanksgiving Weekend, a robust storm system for a week from today. What is a bit interesting is the suggestion of a full latitude trough becoming established and ridging builds off the W Coast suggesting a +PNA regime may be on the horizon. As we have seen, some very cold air has been entrenched across Alaska and if the la la land GFS is even close to being correct, that cold may be dislodged and begin seeping S into the United States as we end November and begin the month of December. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

What a trough on the 12Z Euro for next weekend...

11192011 12Z f168.gif

11192011 12Z 12zecmwfhourly850mbTempAnomalyNA192.gif

[ticka1]

What a trough on the 12Z Euro for next weekend...

IF this scenario plays out - what would our weather be like next weekend srainhoutex?

[srainhoutx]

What a trough on the 12Z Euro for next weekend...

IF this scenario plays out - what would our weather be like next weekend srainhoutex?

Breezy and a bit chilly after the front passes. There does appear to be a squall line with the front, but those finer details will need to be ironed out over the coming days...

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Update: If guidance is correct, I would expect some major travel problems for those returning after the Thanksgiving Holiday, particularly along the East Coast...we will see...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
124 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2011

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 22 2011 - 12Z SAT NOV 26 2011


AS A POLAR VORTEX DROPS SWWD INTO AK CHANGING THE PACIFIC FLOW
PATTERN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TAKING AN
OUTSIDE SLIDER SHORTWAVE DOWN ALONG THE CA COAST IN THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD AND EXITING IT EASTWARD THRU THE SRN PLAINS MON/TUES
AND TOWARDS AND OFF THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SECOND MAJOR FULL LATITUDE TROF FROM THE GLFAK TO WEST OF BAJA
AFFECTS THE WEST COAST WED AND THURSDAY REACHING THE PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE LEAD SYSTEM INDUCES SOUTHWESTERN CONUS CYCLOGENESIS LATE
MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING THRU CENTRAL MS AND LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION LATE TUES. OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
PHASES NRN STREAM FLOW WITH THE SEPERATE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE INTO
A MORE FULL LATITUDE TROF AND PROGRESS IT EASTWARD WITH MORE
ENERGY DIGGING INTO MID TROF BY THE ECMWF WHICH IT HAS DONE IN
VARYING DEGREES AND LOCATIONS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THIS
RESULTS IN A FASTER AND OFFSHORE MUCH MORE NRN SFC SOLUTION BY
GFS. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS ONE PRIMARY STRONG SFC LOW COMING OUT THRU
THE NY BIGHT AND OFF NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDY
COLD ADVECTION CONDITIONS OVER THE EAST COAST. CMC/UKMET/NOGAPS
KEEP MORE SEPERATION BETWEEN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS RESULTING IN
A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH SFC LOW COMING OUT THRU THE CAROLINAS OR VA
WED AND OFF THE MID ATLC COAST THURSDAY. SFC LOW ENSEMBLE SPREAD
IS VERY WIDE WITH A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF ECMWF ENSEMBLES CLOSER
TO THE CMC/UKMET SOLUTION WITH ANOTHER STRONG CLUSTERING TO THE
NORTH. THIS REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AND THERE MAY WELL BE TWO
SYSTEMS EJECTING HERE. PREFER TO KEEP A SECOND WAVE/SFC LOW AS A
REFLECTION OF THE SWRN STREAM STREAM SYSTEM COMING OUT FARTHER
SOUTH AND AFFECTING THE MID ATLC SOUTHEAST SEABOARD ON THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRI AND SAT.

SECOND DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROF COMING INTO THE WEST AND TO THE
PLAINS IN A WEEK BETTER AGREED UPON.

12Z GUIDANCE OF GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUN. LATEST UKMET
AND CMC CHANGE AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH CMC NOW SHOWUNG
STREAM PHASING AND LOKING LIKE THE OVERNIGHT 00Z ECMWF WITH A
STRONG STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. UKMET HAS
DAMPENED IT STRONGER SRN STREAM SHORT INTO A PROGRESSIVELY EXITING
NRN ONE. THESE DIFFERENCES JUST ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY WHILE STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONGER AND CLOSR IN SYSTEM ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY.

HPC UPDATED MORNING PRELIM AND AFTN FINAL SOLUTIONS BASED ON ECMWF
FOR DAY 3 TUES AND A BLEND OF 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENS MEANS FOR
DAYS 4-7 WED/SAT. THIS WAS MODIFIED FOR SLIGHTLY MORE LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST DAY 5 THURSDAY.

EXPECT MDT/HVY RAINS OK/EAST TX/MO/AR INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
TUESDAY SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE APPLCHNS AND TO THE COAST BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. NRN PERIPHERY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NY/AND NEW
ENG MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LINGERING RAIN POTENTIAL MID ATLC AND SOUTHEAST SEABOARD NORTH OF
FL THANKSGIVING DAY.

HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS SWRN B.C./VANCOUVER ISLAND AND COASTAL
WA AND OR TUES AND WED. RAINS SPREADING DOWN THE COAST INTO
CENTRAL AND SOCAL THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
REACHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FRIDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ENTIRE WEST INCLUDING SNOW THROUGH OUT THE
ROCKIES. HVY RAIN POTENTIAL DEVELOPING IN THE SRN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL PLAINS FRI AND SAT AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE MS VALLEY BY
SATURDAY AS A DEEP TROF APPROACHES WITH LOTS OF MID AND LOW LEVEL
GULF MOISTURE INFLOW.

[srainhoutx]

The SPC has expanded the Slight Risk area to include SE TX for Monday night into Tuesday. The guidance has sped up the frontal passage a bit, but the upper disturbance/trough will pass a bit too far N for any real significant rainfall chances. It looks like about a 1/4 to 1/2 inch with isolated 1-2 inch amounts for those that get under any heavier storms. Sound familiar? The next storm late Friday into next Saturday looks bring another round of severe weather and much cooler temps in its wake. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the N and E, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect...

[srainhoutx]

The cold front has sagged S this morning just N of College Station. The front should retreat N a bit setting the stage for severe weather for our neighbors to the N and a bit W. Our area will remain capped today and temps will approach the record of 85F as moisture continues to surge off the Gulf. Any cloud cover today may keep that record safe today as we saw yesterday, but these higher temps will be short lived as the front moves back S tomorrow. The SPC still has a Slight Risk just N and W of our area for today and tonight. We should see that Risk Area move S and E with strong down bursts and hail being the primary threat for tomorrow. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out E of I-45 for tomorrow. QPF forecasts still suggest above an inch for areas mainly N of I-10 for tomorrow. Thanksgiving looks nice with temps in the upper 60's to low 70's. The upcoming weekend will be the time to monitor as a very strong storm complex moves in from the W. More later on that....

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Very active weather pattern expected this week with multiple impacts into the holiday weekend

Strong cold front sitting across TX this morning with temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s north of the boundary and muggy 70’s south of the boundary. Current temperature is 73 at Austin and 48 at Temple (or even better 59 at Austin Exec and 73 at Austin Bergstm). Front has been bleeding very slowly southward overnight and is just north of College Station due mainly to air mass density behind the boundary…cold air is heavier than warm air! Front should come up stationary shortly as incoming short wave over New Mexico ejects NE across the boundary…in fact the eastern part of the front over east TX may drift northward this afternoon under strong warm air advection. Widespread wetting rains will fall across much of NC and N TX tonight as copious moisture is forced up and over this front. Over SE TX, the ole’ capping inversion remains in place and although moisture has greatly increased over the weekend (PWS of 1.5 inches and dewpoints in the low 70’s) thunderstorms will not be able to form with the warm mid layer. Will see a few streamer showers move inland off the Gulf today and tonight and a few locations could pick up a quick .25 of an inch mainly west of I-45. Highs today will be near record levels at most of the major climate sites.

Another item this morning is the threat for nearshore sea fog today as dewpoints in the lower 70’s ride over nearshore waters in the upper 60’s. So far visibilities have averaged 2-4 miles over Galveston Bay, but quickly lower eastward today the TX/LA line and into LA. Do not think the dewpoint spread over the water temperature is great enough for widespread dense sea fog, but a few patches especially over Galveston and Chambers counties is possible.

Cold front north of the area will begin its SE push on Tuesday as the short wave departs to the NE. Combination of deep moisture, frontal forcing, and splitting jet aloft will create a pattern favorable for lines or clusters of thunderstorms. Models slowly move the front across the area on Tuesday with showers streaming inland off the Gulf ahead of the boundary and a line of thunderstorms along the boundary. While the air mass will be unstable, parameters look week for severe thunderstorms, with may be a few marginal wind gusts toward severe levels. Even non-severe winds have been causing some problems of late with the widespread tree mortality from the ongoing drought across the region.

Other issue is rainfall amounts. Models are showing a widespread .5-1.0 inch across the region and this seems very much reasonable given the parameters in place. I am somewhat concerned with the deep moisture in place and the expectation of a slow moving boundary as this is the set up for training excessive rainfall. Additionally water vapor shows moisture starting to peel off from TS Kenneth in the EPAC and this high level flow will likely get entrained across the area. PWS of 1.6-1.8 inches for mid-late November does raise a few red flags as this is pushing the +2 SD for this time of year. If cell training develops, some areas could see much higher rainfall amounts over 2-4 inches in a short period of time. Will favor the area east of I-45 for the best potential of any training. Dry grounds should help mitigate any flash flood threat, but the situation warrants close watch on Tuesday as with these kind of moisture levels you can quickly get into problems.

Storm system will be east of the area Tuesday night with clearing skies and nice weather expected Wed-Thurs. The area should be able to squeeze out a decent Thanksgiving with lows in the 40’s and highs in the low 70’s under mostly sunny skies.

Progressive flow will speed up more come late week with the next storm system rapidly approaching the area Friday/Saturday or about 3 days faster than the week-week system since the end of October. Will see a very quick return of moisture Thursday night with skies going cloudy by early evening Thanksgiving. Air mass will become unstable enough by midday Friday for showers and thunderstorms to break out in a strong warm air advection regime. Fast moving storm system will cross the area Friday night with a cold front sweeping off the coast early Saturday. Will follow the faster GFS solution for this event with a squall line likely developing just west of the area Friday night and moving across the region early Saturday morning. Could see some severe weather with this system, but much depends on how quickly moisture is able to return and the quality of that moisture. EPAC tap from Kenneth would likely support additional heavy rainfall, but current fast motion of this system will limit rainfall production to a short time window from midday Friday to early Saturday morning.

Clearing and colder for the holiday weekend.

[srainhoutx]

It's still several days out and we are talking about a week away, but the guidance continues to advertise a nice cool down across the area. The models are suggesting a cut off upper low deepening in the Mid West pulling down some modified Canadian air. If the trends continue, we may see temp struggle to reach the 50's next Sunday and I know a certain Pro Met on our board that would be none too happy...brrrr....anyone for homemade chili weather...


HPC Update:

12Z UPDATE... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT TREND TOWARD
00Z-12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN... NAMELY TRENDING FASTER
WITH THE INITIAL SRN STREAM TROF MOVING INTO THE SWRN STATES AND
THEN TOWARD A DEEP TROF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE E-CNTRL
CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN IS NOW THE LONE
HOLDOUT IN SHOWING AN EVOLUTION REMOTELY CLOSE TO THE OLD 00Z
ECMWF. AS TIME PERMITTED THE FINAL FCST REFLECTS A PARTIAL
ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLUSTERING OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE... THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY DUE TO TYPICAL FCST ERRORS TO BE
EXPECTED BY DAY 7.


TROF ALOFT MOVING EWD FROM THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND AREAS OF PCPN TO THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK WITH A
WARMER/DRIER TREND DURING THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT
UNANIMOUS... DURING THAT TIME PCPN WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE EXTREME NW. MEANWHILE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS TEMPS
SHOULD TREND COOLER AFTER STARTING THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL... WITH
INCREASING PCPN CHANCES. THE CURRENT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS MID-LATE PERIOD WOULD BRING INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THIS REGION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK... WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALSO PSBL UNDER/W OF THE TROF
ALOFT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE TROF ALOFT EVOLVES... SOME LOCATIONS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW. WITH ARRIVAL OF 12Z GUIDANCE
THE LOWER PROBABILITY SCENARIO OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TEMPS IS NOW MORE IN THE MINORITY THAN
BEFORE.

[srainhoutx]

Brownsville beginning to chatter about the end of the long Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend...what's that I see...frost potential in the RGV...

MORE CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
MONDAY. AFTER A GOOFY ECMWF SOLUTION EARLIER THIS MORNING...WHICH
TOOK DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND CUT IT
OFF OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING WINDY...VERY DRY...AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF EACH SHOW 45+
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTY
FULLY MIXED WINDS TO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS/RGV SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY DAY ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS
MAY MAKE FOR SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THE
MILD GFS SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. SUNDAY COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO REACH 70 DESPITE
FULL SUNSHINE...A TRUE SIGN THAT DECEMBER IS NEAR.

THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR WILL FOLLOW MONDAY MORNING...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PREFERRED POCKETS SUCH AS
ZAPATA/MEDINA AIRPORT EDGE TOWARD THE FREEZING POINT. A BEAUTIFUL
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...STILL A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE...WILL BEGIN THE FIRST WORK WEEK AFTER THE HOLIDAY.

Corpus Christi:

ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...THE
ECMWF HAS ABANDONED ITS BIZARRE RETROGRADE SOLUTION AND COME CLOSER
TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FEATURING A PROGRESSIVE FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR PRECIPITATION...ONCE AGAIN
FOCUSED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE RETURN IS
BEST. VERY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
LOOKS TO PRODUCE HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS IF THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS
VERIFY. GFS IN PARTICULAR IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING A 1036MB
SURFACE HIGH DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THAT SOLUTION WOULD BRING ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR FOR A VERY COOL MONDAY
MORNING. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL NOT BE QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT CERTAINLY BEARS FURTHER SCRUTINY.



Houston/Galveston:

CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR WED/THU WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRI NITE/SATURDAY. PW VALUES
AGAIN SURGE TO 1.8 INCHES BUT THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK
VERY IMPRESSIVE. A NICE SPLIT IN THE 250 MB WINDS WITH SE TX IN A
RIGHT REAR QUAD. WILL CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED LATER IN THE WEEK. DRIER AND COLDER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.