Wx Infinity Forums

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg
Big blow up of convection tonight!

check out that outflow boundary blasting W across GLS Bay. Decent winds will be coming with that feature

Tropical depressions and tropical storms have centers reforming.

Anyone's thoughts on the center reforming south of its current location?

I don't post much on this forum, but I am constantly on here reading everyone's wonderful expert thoughts on the weather. I think it is amazing the support we have and the few amazing experts we have here on this forum giving us opinions and not to give up; not on just this storm, but storms in the past. I am currently in college right now for Meteorology and do plan on becoming a meteorologist over-time of course, and this helps a lot when reading weather maps and data. Now, with that being said, I would like to say a few things:

I can see how everyone gets discouraged when models move a different direction in a way we don't want to see them go. However, those are just models. I know saying that word might not seem anything big, but it's a huge word. Models are usually run by computers in just the way the atmosphere is going to work in the next 5+ days, so those models follow on what the best 'path' the storm will run on. When we all look at models, we need to understand, it's 50/50 shot. Now, of course, if this storm was 50 miles off shore, it wouldn't really be "50/50" but a storm this distant from the coast has a lot of room to grow and move around. Like the meteorologist have said on TV the past few days... they simply just don't know where this storm could go. The steering is not strong at all. Yes, they do think it might get caught up by the trough by late weekend/early next week but that doesn't mean anything!!! For example: Let's all take a look back at IKE. Ike was way out in the Atlantic when it formed. When the first projected path came out, they had it going west, (toward the US) then upward near the East US coast. Everyone on the Eastern US coast was worried, rightfully so. Now, next day, they had the projected path going more westerly, possibly a landfall in FL then up into Georgia then NE from there. Then the next day, the path had it going SW toward Cuba, then northward into East LA or into MS and AL. Then next day LA and TX was in the threat. Next day, South Texas near Corpus was in the threat. Then of course, it makes landfall in Galveston. Moral of the story, who would ever imagine a storm that far out in the Atlantic, would come to Galveston after pretty much 80% of the projected paths having it missing us. Why? Mainly because the trough they had forecasted and high pressure system did not work as they thought it was going to. There is always an error, whether it's minor or major, there is always an error that can change the forecast astronomically. We just don't know folks!
One more example to look at, and this is happening now: Tropical Storm Katia! Katia was downgraded to a TS earlier today, but should soon become a Hurricane again. Many models these past 2 days have had this storm going WNW, as if it was going to hit the East US coast, then curve off to the north and miss them. As of today, (mainly this evening) new models are starting to show it going even further west, (closer to the US East coast) then curve off to the N then NE without hitting the coast, but getting very close. And even a few models now have it stopping at due West. Honestly, and in no way am I saying this is going to happen. But if you look at IKE's path, it is somewhat taking a similar path/direction. So it's something I will watch, but not think to high off. Moral of that story, things change every day in the weather and way the pattern changes.
This goes the same for Winter when we are predicting winter snow storms here in Houston, to quickly find out overnight all the model runs have changed and we're just going to see rain. Weather can change so quickly in a blink of an eye for the good or bad. Just don't give up. You can be upset, as I am too, because I want this rain as badly as anyone else; it's just something we have to watch though!

So yes, this does look discouraging as many models are now saying this will be an LA threat and TX will be on the dry side. BUT, we are not even at the peak of Hurricane season yet. We still have at LEAST another month-month half to go, then we have Winter to look forward to (which I believe is going to be a dangerously cold severe season, but I won't get into that)
Until this storm is 50 miles off the TX or LA coast, we don't need to rely 100% on anything, because these storms can wobble, especially if there is not much of a steering current for this storm and it's just going all on its freewill.

So again, watch this storm, be patient, and hopefully will have some good news later tonight into tomorrow morning and a better understanding of what this storm will do.

Model question.... Why does the XTRP never bend or curve? Why is it always a straight line? Does it reresent something diff? Thanks!

djmike wrote:Model question.... Why does the XTRP never bend or curve? Why is it always a straight line? Does it reresent something diff? Thanks!

XTRP stands for extrapolated....meaning if the current motions direction and speed continued over the next 5 days, that line is that situation

BoonDog wrote:

djmike wrote:Model question.... Why does the XTRP never bend or curve? Why is it always a straight line? Does it reresent something diff? Thanks!

XTRP stands for extrapolated....meaning if the current motions direction and speed continued over the next 5 days, that line is that situation

Ahhh....ok, Thanks Boon!

this is just soooo sad...... Could it be another Katrina? I read some where that the drought could last into next year!!! I have never wanted rain so bad in my life as I do right now. I have been reading the posts and I am so confused and don't know what to think.

Very well stated Belmer and thanks for posting. You will be an excellent Met and look forward to you posting more on the board. A great point about IKE. I never thought IKE being so far N of the Leewards would become a GOM storm. I have closely followed the Atl Basin hurricane seasons for many years and was surpised myself. Also a great point about the models which change every run with new data inputs.

cristina99 wrote:this is just soooo sad...... Could it be another Katrina? I read some where that the drought could last into next year!!! I have never wanted rain so bad in my life as I do right now. I have been reading the posts and I am so confused and don't know what to think.

They say the drought started after Ike hit, so that's been 3 years ago. Hopefully we are at the height of it and things will slowly improve, but it could go on a few more years(as a whole). Just my opinion

Yes we need rain cristina99. Another Katrina....not likely at this point. Hopefully TD 13 will give SE TX a few rainbands. As far as the Winter, yes it could be dry but not like the Summer. Troughs, lows, and fronts will draw moisture out of the Gulf that will be squeezed out.

desiredwxgd wrote:Anyone's thoughts on the center reforming south of its current location?

If it did reform south of its current location, wouldn't that make Texas' rain chances even less?

Well said Belmer. I remember Ike too and I never thought it would hit Texas being so far west and north of the Leewards. Never say never.

What is that swirl of clouds spinning in southwest Louisiana, another area of low pressure?

sleetstorm wrote:What is that swirl of clouds spinning in southwest Louisiana, another area of low pressure?

That's an upper low.

sleetstorm wrote:What is that swirl of clouds spinning in southwest Louisiana, another area of low pressure?

It's an upper-level low...

Our Gulf storm is getting the full attention of the NCEP/NOAA: (this means additional super computer time for the NCH and support from NWS offices across the country as well as NOAA)

NCEP Operational Status Message
Fri Sep 2 01:54:42 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 020153
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0151Z FRI SEP 02 2011
THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE STARTED ON TIME AND IS ON SCHEDULE..
12Z RAOB RECAP...
NKX/72293 - NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM..
GUM/91212 - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS; SHORT TO 577MB..
SXM/78866 - PURGE TEMPS/HUMIDITY 400MB COLD AND HTS 150MB UP,
HIGH.
A REGIONAL CRITICAL WEATHER DAY...CWD...WILL BE DECLARED AT
2330Z THU SEP 1 2011 AND EXTEND THROUGH 0000Z WED SEP 7
2011 IN ORDER TO SUPPORT NHC AND SOUTHERN REGION'S SEVERE WEATHER
OPS DUE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13'S IMPACT ON THE GULF COAST..
THE FOLLOWING NWS REGIONS ARE IMPACTED BY THIS
CWD...SOUTHERN.
NCEP/NWSTG AND THE NCF ARE ALSO PARTICIPATING IN THIS CWD TO
ENSURE A RELIABLE FLOW OF WEATHER DATA.
ALL SCHEDULED SOFTWARE/HARDWARE/NETWORK CHANGES FOR THE IMPACTED
OFFICES WILL BE POSTPONED UNTIL THE CWD HAS ENDED. ANY EMERGENCY
CHANGES WILL BE EVALUATED AND APPROVED BY THE LOCAL/REGIONAL
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. NWS OFFICES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR REGIONAL
OFFICES FOR FURTHER QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS CWD.
$$

With 24" plus of rain forecast on the HPC output, I would think so

jasons wrote:With 24" plus of rain forecast on the HPC output, I would think so

Man some of that rain here in SE Texas would of been nice....but i guess its just not meant to be...