It’s weird how Reed made that much of a difference. I’m not so sure I’ve ever seen a game just turn on a dime like that. A&M was getting dominated. They were struggling to even get a first down.
Reed is still learning as a passer, but he's a much better fit for Klein's system, that uses a running QB. Weigman's fine...if no one touches him, he doesn't have to move or run.
Plus LSU had not prepared for some version of the veer offense.
USCe will be a mega test for Reed and A&M...Beamerball will have a week to prepare.
Oh I understand that, but I’ve never seen one player make that much of a difference so quickly like that. Literally day and night.
Maybe - Joe Montana at Notre Dame. He usually began their seasons on the bench as a 2nd or 3rd string QB.
You're right in that both the offense AND defense flipped.
The weight of trying to hold on between 3 and outs was lifted for the defense. Also, some really clever defense schemes led to those interceptions.
Well, we are done. Slim playoff hopes, such as they were, were completely demolished by a ( formerly) winless team. Liberty still has a shot at the CUSA crown. Zonal flow is the key word of the early week. Temperatures will be close to record highs.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Unseasonable heat and late night/early morning fog continue to
dominate the early portion of the week. A bit of change is on the
way, however, with a weak front expected to arrive later in the
week. This results in increasing cloudiness and the return of rain
chances from Wednesday on into the weekend, peaking on Thursday.
Though there is pretty high confidence in rain, there`s similarly
high confidence in this rain being fairly light. This should help
keep temperatures closer to average for a day or two, but a slow
warmup looks to come in for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Areas of fog have developed again this morning as expected. Much
like the last few days, any fog will break by mid-morning. Yielding
to another hotter than normal day. However, there will be
differences between today and the last few days. For starters, the
synoptic pattern will change, featuring a deepening mind/upper
trough over W CONUS and ridging to our east. The trough`s PVA will
generate a sfc low over the Central Plains that will steepen the LL
pressure gradient over our region and gradually increase southeast
winds today and tomorrow. In addition, this deep SE flow will surge
tropical PWs into SE TX. You`ll feel this in the form of higher
humidity. However, the moisture will also bring slight chance of
seeing a few isolated streamer-like showers today and tomorrow. For
today, the best chance (15-20 PoPs) of seeing a brief rain shower
will be over our southwestern counties. Tomorrow, the best chance
(15-20 PoPs) of a brief shower includes our far western counties.
Temperature wise, inland afternoon highs should average in the
mid/upper 80s. A few spots could hit 90 again. Rising humidity is
likely to keep temperatures warmer tonight, with lows struggling to
drop below 70 in most areas. Down by the coast, tonight`s lows may
only drop into the mid 70s! Where art thou fall?????
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Shall I hear more, or shall I speak at this?
Oh...right...we`ve discussed all of the short term above, which
makes it time to talk about the long term.
In truth, there is not much different to tell you about this part
of the forecast tonight. Wednesday still looks just as warm as
the early part of the week, but also there`s potential for
streamer showers with considerably stronger onshore flow.
Thursday will be cooler as a front approaches (arrives?), but it`s
less the triumphant march of a cooler airmass, and more just
knocking some degrees off the top because of increased cloud cover
and rain chances. But yes! There`s still pretty high confidence
in rain showers popping up across the area on Thursday...though
also the confidence is still pretty high that rainfall amounts
will be relatively light. Friday looks somewhat similar as the
front washes out, setting us up for the return of a gradual warmup
into the weekend. We`ll need a more significant front than this
to really knock temperatures down.
With the summary out of the way, let`s zoom in a little more at
the more nuanced portions of the long term. First, Thursday. For
what it`s worth, deterministic models - both the GFS and Euro,
plus even the NAM at its 12Z Thursday end time - do slide ridging
a bit more east, and that lets the upper trough dig down to around
the northern part of Oklahoma(ish) until it ejects out towards the
Great Lakes. It`s not the difference needed to power a vigorous
front through the area, but has me feeling a bit more confident in
some front-like substance actually getting into Southeast Texas
rather than stalling out north of here.
This will mainly make for an impact on wind direction, and should
at least provide a bit more confidence to rain potential on
Thursday, given a source of surface convergence. But...that`s
really about it. This still doesn`t look anything remotely like a
vigorous front moving into the area, and neither the temperature
difference nor the convection looks really any healthier for it.
Pulling out the LREF clusters again, all four clusters look pretty
similar to the grand ensemble mean, with maybe a tenth of an inch
of rain difference between the "dry" and "wet" scenarios. Even the
wettest cluster is below 0.2 inches of rain. There is a bit more
width by stepping up to the 90th percentile...the grand ensemble
90th percentile tops out at a third of an inch around Lake
Livingston, while the wettest cluster (cluster 3, for the record)
puts half an inch there.
But geez...you gotta go all the way up to the ensemble max level
to find an inch of rain anywhere. Not even the 95th percentile is
all that exciting. So, suffice to say, despite the high PoPs in my
forecast, there`s also a pretty high confidence that rain should
be relatively light. And yes...there`s the same caution I gave
last night that this probability distribution is likely underdone
given that we`re expecting convection and that`s just not going to
be resolved real well in global ensemble members. But this
distribution is still going to be qualitatively useful, and if we
want to be thinking about drought-busters, this pretty clearly
isn`t it. This may not even be a drought-denter...maybe just more
a drought-scuffer.
Well okay, fine, but what about the rest of the forecast period?
We`ve got more rain chances spread through Friday and into the
weekend! And that`s true! Though it`s worth noting that it takes
until at least Sunday for any negative deviance from the ensemble
mean to show up in any of the LREF clusters. There`s basically
unanimous consensus that ridging aloft stays in place over the
Gulf until early next week, keeping us in southwest flow aloft,
and onshore flow at low levels. Temperatures look to gradually
increase again into the weekend, and the PoP trend looks to focus
more over the Gulf late at night, with some quick hitter showers
in the morning, transitioning to scattered showers over land in
the afternoon...and I`ve got to think most of you have thought
over the course of this paragraph "Hey, that sounds a lot like
summer!". And...yeah...that`s the same thought I had, too. Except
it`s November. Yeah. But hey, at least it looks like the wetter
summer diurnal pattern, and not the dry one! And because it`s
November and solar angle is less direct and daylight time is
shorter, it won`t be quite as hot as summer! Take what we can get,
I suppose.
My shift partner, the resident office expert at teleconnections
and sub-seasonal prediction, swears to me that things look better
beyond this timeframe for at least returning to more typical fall
conditions. And he`s right, it does. Just...it doesn`t look like
that yet. Sorry, y`all.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Areas of IFR/MVFR (locally LIFR) conditions should improve to VFR
by 14-15Z. There is a better chance of sub VFR conditions
occurring at HOU and IAH this morning, hence the TEMPO groups.
Winds will increase from the SE to 10-15 knots by this afternoon.
These winds are expected to decrease overnight. However, the wind
may remain elevated enough to keep the fog risk at bay tonight.
For now, no sub VFR conditions are indicated in the TAF for
tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Onshore winds will gradually strengthen this week, likely
requiring cautions and the potential for a small craft advisory
also looks higher, particularly on Tuesday night. This will also
result in building seas, which also look to approach the advisory
threshold tomorrow night. Rain chances return to the forecast
beginning on Wednesday, with showers and storms possible through
the end of the week and into next weekend.
Patchy fog remains possible in the northern portions of the Bays
over the next couple of nights, but dense marine fog is not
expected. At the shores, look for rip current risk and tidal
levels to increase towards the middle of the week along with the
increase in winds and seas.
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from this evening through
Wednesday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs
Myself and MontgomeryCoWx (I’m the one in the Good Guys clothing) enjoying the snow in College Station Saturday. Thanks again for the hospitality!
Great atmosphere. The game…..
For the record, I was born and raised in South Louisiana (Vermilion Parish) and have lived on the Gulf Coast my entire life. I don’t think I have ever been as hot as I was Saturday.
This late season heat is ridiculous.
Well, until the zonal flow is dislodged, it will be like this for awhile. It is nice and cold in Alaska...The NWS long range guys are hinting at a pattern change
My shift partner, the resident office expert at teleconnections
and sub-seasonal prediction, swears to me that things look better
beyond this timeframe for at least returning to more typical fall
conditions. And he`s right, it does. Just...it doesn`t look like
that yet. Sorry, y`all.
Things are looking very active for the southern plains over the next week or more with heavy rain. It also seems that there will be several opportunities for severe weather , the fall severe weather season has begun.
don wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2024 9:49 am
Things are looking very active for the southern plains over the next week or more with heavy rain. It also seems that there will be several opportunities for severe weather , the fall severe weather season has begun.
Yeah, you're closer to the action.
Tireman may be onto something. An Alaska cruise may be the ticket to cooler and rainier weather. In Alaska!
Im thinking we have more of a enso neutral winter this year, odds of a la nina winter have actually decreased since the last enso update, la nina is really struggling to get going right now and i think the MJO crashing in the pacific has something to do with that, at least thats the talk im starting to hear
Winds will be picking up this week. A reminder - if you are living in Texas, there's probably a burn ban in your county. Beryl really increased the amount of kindling and brush that are ready to ignite after our long desiccating period. Given the limited amount of rain expected this week...don't count on the ban being lifted anytime soon.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
250 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
It`s officially Halloween week and we`re still talking about above
normal temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. In fact this entire
month of October has been hot and dry...so much so that all five of
our climate sites are currently on pace for being in the Top 4 for
warmest Octobers on record and in the Top 4 for driest Octobers on
record. There`s not much hope to report on temperature-wise
throughout the short term period, but there are some weird green
specs on the radar in our western Gulf waters approaching
Matagorda/Brazoria Counties. We did a deep dive into some research
for y`all and we can confirm that this phenomenon is known as "rain
showers". A corridor of slightly deeper moisture has set up around
Matagorda Bay with PW values in the 1.2-1.4" range (75th percentile:
~1.45"). While this is occuring, we maintain in our ridging aloft
pattern...so these showers have to battle a rather robust subsidence
inversion layer aloft around 800mb. This will limit the coverage of
showers to be rather isolated.
Looking out west, there is an approaching upper level trough from
the western CONUS and surface low pressure sitting just east of the
Rockies. As the trough pushes further eastward, it`ll aid in
deepening this surface low as it transitions northeastward. The
pressure gradient will tighten over us (along with the development
of a 20-30 kt LLJ) as the surface low deepens leading to gusty winds
in the afternoons and winds remaining elevated during the overnight
hours. This means that our patchy fog potential will go way
down...but it also means we won`t see as cool of temperatures
tonight with lows only in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tuesday will be
slightly "cooler" with 850mb temperatures dropping by a couple of
degrees, so we`re only looking at highs in the mid to upper 80s.
That corridor of deeper moisture will extend further north tomorrow
as WAA and moisture advection strengthens in the warm sector of the
previously mentioned surface low. As a result, those chances of
isolated rain showers extends into the Brazos Valley. Your best
chance of seeing rainfall will be west of I-45. With increased
moisture and elevated winds persisting, expect low temperatures on
Tuesday night in the low to mid 70s.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Not much change with the morning models regarding a change to
slightly `wetter` or at least more unsettled weather in the extended
forecast, starting Wednesday and continuing perhaps into the
weekend. With a transition of sorts in the mid/upper level pattern
this week, a cool front (in name only) will push into southeastern
TX Thursday and stall out Friday into Saturday over our area.
Certainly, abundant low level moisture will be in place as large
scale ascent and an unseasonably warm/humid surface destabilizes
things each afternoon. Wednesday afternoon looks more scattered for
showers and a few thunderstorms developing ahead of the front.
However, Thursday looks to be the `wettest` of the days this week as
the front shifts into southeast TX. `Wettest` is relative of course
as most ensemble members continue to keep actual QPF at a .25" or
less. Regardless, it appears most of the region will see a few
showers and measurable rain chances Thursday into Friday morning.
With SBCAPE in the 1500-2500 j/kg range, we certainly couldn`t rule
out a thunderstorm or two as well. This means Trick or Treating may
be a bit soggy, but not a washout. The front stalls out Friday and
then sort of dissipates in place by the weekend. This will keep
some PoPs in play through the weekend and into early next week with
unsettled weather each afternoon.
Temperatures through the long term will mostly remain above to well
above normal, as will surface dew points, for this time of year. The
clouds and showers may taper heating a bit Wednesday through Friday,
although highs will still top out in the lower to mid 80s...with mid
80s to near 90f returning by early next week. It is worth keeping
an eye on midweek next week, as a more traditional Fall front may
finally bring some relief beyond day 8. Fingers crossed!
Evans
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
Southeasterly winds will continue to gradually increase
throughout the afternoon with sustained winds around 10-15 kts and
occasional gusts around 20-25 kts. Wind speeds remain near 10 kts
overnight, so patchy fog is expected to be less of an issue. A
brief period of MVFR ceilings will be possible at CLL though
between 08Z-15Z. Southeasterly winds are expected to be a bit
gustier on Tuesday and getting an earlier start around 15Z, but
otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024
As a result of strengthening onshore winds throughout the day, a
Small Craft Advisory will go into effect tonight through at least
early Wednesday morning for the western Gulf waters. Elsewhere,
caution flags will be raised, but don`t be surprised to see those
get upgraded to advisories in later updates. Due to elevated
onshore flow, expect the rip current risk and tidal levels on
Gulf-facing beaches to increase through the rest of the week. Wave
heights in the Gulf waters see a subsequent increase as well near
6 to 7 feet by early Tuesday morning. Rain chances finally return
to the forecast this week, with showers and storms possible
through the end of the week and into the weekend.
The GFS and Icon models both consistently show the heaviest rains in North Texas with the dying crumbles of a squall like pushing through on Halloween.
jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2024 3:24 pm
The GFS and Icon models both consistently show the heaviest rains in North Texas with the dying crumbles of a squall like pushing through on Halloween.
Yes. Our moisture firehose will feed storms and potentially severe weather in north Texas and Oklahoma this week.
We have a Red Flag Warning through tomorrow night. S20 G30. We're pumping hard.
A few lucky light stream showers is all we'll get in CLL and HOU. Like so many Aprils recently (except for the Derecho). Severe weather and rain north and east of here.
SOS
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Oct 28, 2024 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2024 3:24 pm
The GFS and Icon models both consistently show the heaviest rains in North Texas with the dying crumbles of a squall like pushing through on Halloween.
Starting next week Alaska will begin to warm up and that cool air eventually gets dislodged into the central US, looks like an extended period of wetter period ahead followed by cooler conditions with the passage of another front in about 8 days
